Wednesday, March 23, 2005

 

US interest rates rise to 2.75pc

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates yesterday for the seventh time in a row and said it would continue to tighten monetary policy at "a measured pace". The rise in rates by a quarter point to 2.75pc had been widely anticipated and Wall Street was more focused on the text of the accompanying statement.
Financial markets feared that the phrase "measured pace", which the Fed has consistently used to describe its policy of modest quarter point rises, might have been dropped, indicating larger upward moves could be on the horizon.
The Fed said that "longer-term inflation expectations were well contained" and said that higher oil costs had not yet fed through into core inflation.
Nevertheless, the bank did note that "pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident". It also described the pace of growth as "solid" rather than "moderate". The Fed also noted that the balanced risks assessment to both growth and inflation was contingent on "appropriate monetary policy action".
The dollar jumped higher against sterling and the euro after the announcement, along with Treasury yields.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year note shot up to 4.59pc from 4.48pc just before the announcement, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 50 points lower at 10515.
Most analysts believe the neutral level of US interest rates is about 4pc. Bear Stearns is predicting rates of 4.5pc by the end of 2005, a level which would require a 50 basis point rise at some point during the year.
The Fed's unanimous decision came after data released earlier in the day showed US producer prices rising. Wholesale prices rose 0.4pc in February, while the core producer price index rose 0.1pc.
In the UK, inflation measured by the official Consumer Price Index remained at 1.6pc in February, defying expectations of a rise. Faltering consumer demand meant retailers were unable to raise shop prices after the New Year sales by as much as in previous years.

Monday, March 21, 2005

 

US, Japan, Germany, France and UK face junk debt ratings

Rapidly rising pension and healthcare spending will reduce the debt status of the world's richest industrialised countries to junk status within 30 years unless their governments move quickly to balance budgets and reduce outgoings according to Standard & Poor's.
The credit ratings agency says if fiscal trends prevail, the cost of ageing populations will fuel downgrades of France, the US, Germany and the UK from investment grade to speculative, or junk, category France by the early 2020s, the US and Germany before 2030 and the UK before 2035. They are currently in the top Triple A category, ensuring they can borrow at low rates.
The debt ratios of these countries are set to reach levels not seen since the second world war, S&P says.
S&P, says: “Without further adjustment either to current fiscal stance or to social and healthcare costs, the general government debt ratios of France, Germany and the US will surpass 200 per cent. This will result in deficits more akin to those associated with speculative grade sovereigns.”
All big industrialised nations face the problem of large unfunded pension liabilities and rising healthcare costs as populations age. Most have responded with limited moves to make benefits less generous. But S&P's projections already factor in the reductions in public sector pensions made by Germany and Italy last year.
The agency estimates that according to current trends US general government debt will soar to 239 per cent of gross domestic product by 2050, against 65 per cent today. France's will reach 235 per cent against 66 per cent, Germany's 221 per cent against 68 per cent, and the UK's 160 per cent against 42 per cent. Italy, which has run more disciplined budgets because of its already-high debt burden, will see its ratio fall to 91 per cent from 104 per cent, assuming it maintains the current trend. S&P said last year the debt ratio of Japan, the most heavily indebted industrialised country, was set to surpass 700 per cent of GDP by 2050.
The agency's model shows countries can ease the impact of ageing by running tight budgets before demographic pressures peak. The US has healthier demographic trends than Europe but its budget deficit will add to the pain when population ageing accelerates about 2020.

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Add to Technorati Favorites