UK loans rates strengthen on Bank of England views

The U.K. economy, Europe’s second largest, is expected to have expanded 0.6 percent, when then UK GDP (1st estimate for Q1) is released this morning, the same pace as in the three months through December. An accelerating economic expansion around the world is helping British exports.

The Bank of England says overseas sales, investment by companies and consumer spending may lift growth rate to 2.7 percent this year from a 13 year low of 1.8 percent in 2005. The Central bank has kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.5 percent since August and the consensus that there will be a reduction this year has departed amid signs economic growth may accelerate.

The UK manufacturing sector continued to exhibit further signs of improvement in April as demand began to edge up, it was announced yesterday. However, this industrial trends survey from the Confederation of British Industry revealed that firms are still cutting jobs in the face of rising cost pressures. In its April Survey of the sector, the CBI said a balance of -11 pct reported order books above normal, the highest figure since February 2005.

In the US today Durable Goods Orders for March are released with expectation that they are to rise at 1.8%, rising for the second month in a row, as businesses invested in new equipment to meet demand.

New home sales for March are also released this afternoon which is expected to be 1150k in March a rise, despite mortgage rates rising of 70k from February, following the decline in last month of 10.5% which found the number at 1080k.

If the Fed are seeing unreliable signs of slowing, some indication could be made in the first sentence of this report, otherwise if it is said that the economy is continuing to grow, it may suggest the Fed’s expectation of slower growth is being driven by their models as opposed to what it is hearing from their contacts.

In Europe yesterday The European Central Bank said that euro zone growth has been supported by increased spending by oil production countries, and this has offset some of the negative initial effects of the recent rise in oil prices.

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April 26, 2006   Posted in: Uncategorized

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