Friday, January 29, 2010
Britain may be out of recession at last – but are you?
While the UK’s output of goods and services grew in the final quarter of 2009, according to the latest official statistics, many people are wondering whether their own finances are actually in any better shape.
Recovery can bring its own problems; for a start, rising demand tends to stoke inflation, which could prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates – good news for savers, but not something that hard-pressed home owners would welcome.
So what are the prospects for our personal finances as the economic recovery takes hold?
With Britain borrowing record amounts of money, many expect public spending cuts or tax rises – or both – as the Government attempts to balance the books. Income tax could have to rise by as much as 5p in the Pound.
Commentators are divided on the likelihood that interest rates will rise from their current unprecedented lows. Official rates were unlikely to rise this year because a tough post-election Budget would equate to a significant interest rate rise.
But you don’t need the Bank of England to put up official rates for mortgage costs to rise. Lenders are by and large able to change their standard variable rates at will, while Skipton Building Society recently abandoned a pledge to keep its SVR within three percentage points of Bank Rate.
Higher interest rates might seem like good news for savers, who would finally see better returns on their money. But if inflation rose faster than interest rates, pensioners’ and savers’ incomes would not keep up with increasing household bills. Rising rates also means higher mortgage rates, which will put further pressure on many households’ incomes.
Recovery can bring its own problems; for a start, rising demand tends to stoke inflation, which could prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates – good news for savers, but not something that hard-pressed home owners would welcome.
So what are the prospects for our personal finances as the economic recovery takes hold?
With Britain borrowing record amounts of money, many expect public spending cuts or tax rises – or both – as the Government attempts to balance the books. Income tax could have to rise by as much as 5p in the Pound.
Commentators are divided on the likelihood that interest rates will rise from their current unprecedented lows. Official rates were unlikely to rise this year because a tough post-election Budget would equate to a significant interest rate rise.
But you don’t need the Bank of England to put up official rates for mortgage costs to rise. Lenders are by and large able to change their standard variable rates at will, while Skipton Building Society recently abandoned a pledge to keep its SVR within three percentage points of Bank Rate.
Higher interest rates might seem like good news for savers, who would finally see better returns on their money. But if inflation rose faster than interest rates, pensioners’ and savers’ incomes would not keep up with increasing household bills. Rising rates also means higher mortgage rates, which will put further pressure on many households’ incomes.
While you would expect the end of a recession to be good news for the stock market, it’s worth bearing in mind that markets generally look ahead, so much of the good news will already be “in the price”. So instead of simply expecting the FTSE100 to soar, investors may have to be selective if they want to profit, experts say
An immediate improvement in employment prospects is unlikely, experts say. Jobs will remain hard to find, with employers likely to remain nervous about hiring when the economic recovery is still sluggish. In fact, we expect unemployment to start rising again and it could even reach 3m.
Even if employment holds up, that is only likely to be because firms are controlling costs by cutting or freezing pay instead. For many people, it will still feel very much like a recession.
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