Tuesday, February 09, 2010
UK housing market freezes up as Britain's suffers winter weather
Snow and freezing temperatures almost brought the property market to a halt last month, according to estate agents.
The latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors found a fifth more estate agents reported a fall rather than a rise in the number of new buyers during January.
It is in sharp contrast to the 18 per cent more estate agents who reported a rise rather than a fall in house hunters during the previous month.
But despite the slowdown in activity, house prices continued to rise, with 32pc more surveyors reporting price increases in January than those who saw falls, up from 30pc more in December.
Surveyors remain confident that the dip in activity is temporary, with the proportion who expect prices to continue rising doubling during the month from a balance of 12pc to 24pc.
Estate agents said the cold weather at the beginning of the year badly affected business.
The latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors found a fifth more estate agents reported a fall rather than a rise in the number of new buyers during January.
It is in sharp contrast to the 18 per cent more estate agents who reported a rise rather than a fall in house hunters during the previous month.
But despite the slowdown in activity, house prices continued to rise, with 32pc more surveyors reporting price increases in January than those who saw falls, up from 30pc more in December.
Surveyors remain confident that the dip in activity is temporary, with the proportion who expect prices to continue rising doubling during the month from a balance of 12pc to 24pc.
Estate agents said the cold weather at the beginning of the year badly affected business.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: home loans, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 3:02 PM 0 comments
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Monday, February 08, 2010
More than 10,000 Britons declared insolvent every month
More than 10,000 Britons are being declared insolvent every month, the highest level on record, new official figures have shown.
Although the recession maybe over, many households are still unable to live within their means.
And experts warned insolvency numbers will rise further once interest rates begin to head above their current low level of just 0.5 per cent.
The latest figures showed 134,142 people in England and Wales were declared insolvent last year, the highest level since records began in 1960 and a sharp increase on the previous record of 107,288 personal insolvencies in 2006.
The individual insolvencies consisted of 17,007 bankruptcies during the last three months of 2009, - which were up 24.9 per cent on the same period a year ago - and 13,219 of its less stringent form, Individual Voluntary Arrangements (IVAs) – which were up 26.3 per cent on the same period in 2008.
An IVA is an arrangement that is entered into with those owed money, while a bankruptcy involves a formal court order where assets are sold to pay off creditors.
An alternative to bankruptcy – a debt relief order – was introduced last April, but various restrictions limit those who can apply, such as not owning your own home and having debts of less than £15,000. There were 5,348 of these orders during the final quarter, up from 4,505 in the previous quarter.
Although the recession maybe over, many households are still unable to live within their means.
And experts warned insolvency numbers will rise further once interest rates begin to head above their current low level of just 0.5 per cent.
The latest figures showed 134,142 people in England and Wales were declared insolvent last year, the highest level since records began in 1960 and a sharp increase on the previous record of 107,288 personal insolvencies in 2006.
The individual insolvencies consisted of 17,007 bankruptcies during the last three months of 2009, - which were up 24.9 per cent on the same period a year ago - and 13,219 of its less stringent form, Individual Voluntary Arrangements (IVAs) – which were up 26.3 per cent on the same period in 2008.
An IVA is an arrangement that is entered into with those owed money, while a bankruptcy involves a formal court order where assets are sold to pay off creditors.
An alternative to bankruptcy – a debt relief order – was introduced last April, but various restrictions limit those who can apply, such as not owning your own home and having debts of less than £15,000. There were 5,348 of these orders during the final quarter, up from 4,505 in the previous quarter.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, home loans, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 2:58 PM 0 comments
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Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Money is the root of all evil for Britons
Money may make the world go round but money is also the nation's biggest worry.
More than eight out of 10 people said they are experiencing some kind of worry, consumer analysts Mintel found.
And one in five admit to turning to drink when stressed, while more than one in 10 light up a cigarette, the survey of 2,000 people found.
The top five concerns were money (40 per cent), problems with friends and family members (25 per cent), health (24 per cent), stress at work (22 per cent) and job security (21 per cent).
And the top five ways of dealing with stress were socialising with friends and family (54 per cent), listening to music or reading a book (40 per cent), exercise (33 per cent), talking to people about how they feel (32 per cent) and spending one-on-one time with a partner (22 per cent).
'The fact that over half of us turns to our family and friends in times of trouble, compared to just 6 per cent who go to a professional, highlights the extent of the stigma attached to seeking professional help to deal with stress.
More than eight out of 10 people said they are experiencing some kind of worry, consumer analysts Mintel found.
And one in five admit to turning to drink when stressed, while more than one in 10 light up a cigarette, the survey of 2,000 people found.
The top five concerns were money (40 per cent), problems with friends and family members (25 per cent), health (24 per cent), stress at work (22 per cent) and job security (21 per cent).
And the top five ways of dealing with stress were socialising with friends and family (54 per cent), listening to music or reading a book (40 per cent), exercise (33 per cent), talking to people about how they feel (32 per cent) and spending one-on-one time with a partner (22 per cent).
'The fact that over half of us turns to our family and friends in times of trouble, compared to just 6 per cent who go to a professional, highlights the extent of the stigma attached to seeking professional help to deal with stress.
While one in four men turn to drink in times of worry, less than one in five women drown their sorrows in alcohol.
But women are more likely to turn to comfort foods than men.
And on the whole, it is the fairer sex that is likely to be more stressed out, with more than one in 10 saying they had five or more worries, compared to just one in 14 men.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, home loans, Loan calculator, loans, sub, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:09 PM 0 comments
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Friday, January 29, 2010
Britain may be out of recession at last – but are you?
While the UK’s output of goods and services grew in the final quarter of 2009, according to the latest official statistics, many people are wondering whether their own finances are actually in any better shape.
Recovery can bring its own problems; for a start, rising demand tends to stoke inflation, which could prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates – good news for savers, but not something that hard-pressed home owners would welcome.
So what are the prospects for our personal finances as the economic recovery takes hold?
With Britain borrowing record amounts of money, many expect public spending cuts or tax rises – or both – as the Government attempts to balance the books. Income tax could have to rise by as much as 5p in the Pound.
Commentators are divided on the likelihood that interest rates will rise from their current unprecedented lows. Official rates were unlikely to rise this year because a tough post-election Budget would equate to a significant interest rate rise.
But you don’t need the Bank of England to put up official rates for mortgage costs to rise. Lenders are by and large able to change their standard variable rates at will, while Skipton Building Society recently abandoned a pledge to keep its SVR within three percentage points of Bank Rate.
Higher interest rates might seem like good news for savers, who would finally see better returns on their money. But if inflation rose faster than interest rates, pensioners’ and savers’ incomes would not keep up with increasing household bills. Rising rates also means higher mortgage rates, which will put further pressure on many households’ incomes.
Recovery can bring its own problems; for a start, rising demand tends to stoke inflation, which could prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates – good news for savers, but not something that hard-pressed home owners would welcome.
So what are the prospects for our personal finances as the economic recovery takes hold?
With Britain borrowing record amounts of money, many expect public spending cuts or tax rises – or both – as the Government attempts to balance the books. Income tax could have to rise by as much as 5p in the Pound.
Commentators are divided on the likelihood that interest rates will rise from their current unprecedented lows. Official rates were unlikely to rise this year because a tough post-election Budget would equate to a significant interest rate rise.
But you don’t need the Bank of England to put up official rates for mortgage costs to rise. Lenders are by and large able to change their standard variable rates at will, while Skipton Building Society recently abandoned a pledge to keep its SVR within three percentage points of Bank Rate.
Higher interest rates might seem like good news for savers, who would finally see better returns on their money. But if inflation rose faster than interest rates, pensioners’ and savers’ incomes would not keep up with increasing household bills. Rising rates also means higher mortgage rates, which will put further pressure on many households’ incomes.
While you would expect the end of a recession to be good news for the stock market, it’s worth bearing in mind that markets generally look ahead, so much of the good news will already be “in the price”. So instead of simply expecting the FTSE100 to soar, investors may have to be selective if they want to profit, experts say
An immediate improvement in employment prospects is unlikely, experts say. Jobs will remain hard to find, with employers likely to remain nervous about hiring when the economic recovery is still sluggish. In fact, we expect unemployment to start rising again and it could even reach 3m.
Even if employment holds up, that is only likely to be because firms are controlling costs by cutting or freezing pay instead. For many people, it will still feel very much like a recession.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, home loans, sub prime loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:55 AM 0 comments
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Monday, January 18, 2010
How to cut your credit card debts
Paying off any credit card debts should be your top financial priority for 2010.
If you've got a lot of debt sitting on your credit card following Christmas, and it's racking up a lot of interest, the first step you should take is to transfer that debt onto a 0% balance transfer credit card.
The top card to use at the moment is the Virgin Credit Card, which offers an interest free period on all balance transfers for 16 months. So this means you've got 16 months to start making progress tackling your debt without worrying about paying interest.
It's a good idea to set up a monthly standing order for your minimum monthly repayment to make sure you don't forget to make a payment each month. If you do, you could be charged a fee, lose your 0% deal, and possible get a black mark on your credit record.
Get budgeting
If you're struggling to pay off your debt, the most obvious way to tackle it is to throw as much money towards it as possible.
But if you're feeling a little strapped for cash, this might seem slightly daunting. So a good idea is to sit down and draw up a budget. To do this, work out exactly what your monthly outgoings and earnings are by using a statement of affairs calculator.
If you can't manage to get all of your credit card debts onto interest-free deals, you need to adopt the method of 'snowballing'.
To do this, simply work out which of your credit card debts is charging the most interest - this is the debt that will grow at the fastest rate, so it's the one you need to concentrate on.
Keep paying the minimum monthly payments on all of your borrowings, but put any spare cash towards your most expensive debt. Once you've paid off this debt, put the extra money towards the next most expensive debt, and so on. Leave your interest-free debt until last.
As I mentioned earlier, it's important to remember to pay the minimum monthly repayment (MMR) on your credit card each month. However, minimum monthly repayments are usually set at a ridiculously low level - often as low as 2% of your total card debt.
This means it will take you a long time to pay off your balance - typically more than 15 years on £1,000 of debt. This also means your debt becomes much more expensive, as you'll be paying a lot of interest over that period.
So it's a good idea to set up a direct debit and pay a fixed amount on top of the minimum monthly repayment each month. That way you will pay off the debt far quicker and you won't have to pay as much in interest. You can find more about minimum monthly repayments in The dangers of minimum payments.
If you've got a lot of debt sitting on your credit card following Christmas, and it's racking up a lot of interest, the first step you should take is to transfer that debt onto a 0% balance transfer credit card.
The top card to use at the moment is the Virgin Credit Card, which offers an interest free period on all balance transfers for 16 months. So this means you've got 16 months to start making progress tackling your debt without worrying about paying interest.
It's a good idea to set up a monthly standing order for your minimum monthly repayment to make sure you don't forget to make a payment each month. If you do, you could be charged a fee, lose your 0% deal, and possible get a black mark on your credit record.
Get budgeting
If you're struggling to pay off your debt, the most obvious way to tackle it is to throw as much money towards it as possible.
But if you're feeling a little strapped for cash, this might seem slightly daunting. So a good idea is to sit down and draw up a budget. To do this, work out exactly what your monthly outgoings and earnings are by using a statement of affairs calculator.
If you can't manage to get all of your credit card debts onto interest-free deals, you need to adopt the method of 'snowballing'.
To do this, simply work out which of your credit card debts is charging the most interest - this is the debt that will grow at the fastest rate, so it's the one you need to concentrate on.
Keep paying the minimum monthly payments on all of your borrowings, but put any spare cash towards your most expensive debt. Once you've paid off this debt, put the extra money towards the next most expensive debt, and so on. Leave your interest-free debt until last.
As I mentioned earlier, it's important to remember to pay the minimum monthly repayment (MMR) on your credit card each month. However, minimum monthly repayments are usually set at a ridiculously low level - often as low as 2% of your total card debt.
This means it will take you a long time to pay off your balance - typically more than 15 years on £1,000 of debt. This also means your debt becomes much more expensive, as you'll be paying a lot of interest over that period.
So it's a good idea to set up a direct debit and pay a fixed amount on top of the minimum monthly repayment each month. That way you will pay off the debt far quicker and you won't have to pay as much in interest. You can find more about minimum monthly repayments in The dangers of minimum payments.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, home loans, Loan calculator, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 7:52 PM 0 comments
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Friday, January 08, 2010
Bank of England freeze on UK interest rates continues
UK interest rates have been left at 0.5% following the Bank of England's latest meeting.
The cost of borrowing has been at a record low since March 2009 and economists do not expect the central bank to raise rates in the near term.
The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also maintained the quantitative easing (QE), or asset buying, programme at £200bn.
The UK is thought to have exited recession in the last quarter of 2009.
The MPC said it expected its QE programme to take another month to complete and that the scale of the programme would be kept under review.
Manufacturers said they supported the Bank's decision. The recovery is now underway, but its strength remains in doubt.
The cost of borrowing has been at a record low since March 2009 and economists do not expect the central bank to raise rates in the near term.
The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also maintained the quantitative easing (QE), or asset buying, programme at £200bn.
The UK is thought to have exited recession in the last quarter of 2009.
The MPC said it expected its QE programme to take another month to complete and that the scale of the programme would be kept under review.
Manufacturers said they supported the Bank's decision. The recovery is now underway, but its strength remains in doubt.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Aussie loans rates, Bank of England, credit crunch, home loans-rates-UK, interest rates, Loan calculator, MPC, Quantitative Easing, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 6:20 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, December 17, 2009
Sainsburys Bank increases it's UK loans market focus
As the UK's personal and business markets improve Sainsbury's appears to be focusing on the UK personal loans market.
Customers who hold Sainsbury's nectar loyalty cards are being offered cheap personal loans from between £5000 and £15,000 if they apply online. The more conventional rate is 8.1% but all holders of nectar cards are able to secure a rate of 7.9%.
This is the cheapest rate that is available without having to be an existing customer of a lender. Fascinatingly, there is no cut-off point at which you need to be a nectar card holder therefore many people have been applying for the card and then applying for a loan.
This is visibly a very clever ploy by Sainsbury's to increase interest in its loyalty card and at the same time secure personal finance transactions well in excess of UK base rates. This will probably be a sign of things to come with the likes of Tesco very active in the finance market as well.
In their own right, offers such as that available through Sainsbury's would mean very little in a review of the UK economy but when pieced together with significant improvements in mortgage rates and improved liquidity in the market place, slowly but surely there are signs of hope for the UK.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, home loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 5:39 PM 0 comments
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Friday, November 20, 2009
Banks are charging sneaky fees claims Which?
UK banks are still finding "sneaky ways" to make money out of people, the consumers' association Which? has found.
It claims the rate on authorised overdrafts is at its highest level since records began in the mid-1990s.
According to the latest Bank of England statistics, the average overdraft rate is 18.96%, although many of the big banks can charge considerably more.
Which? says that the rate for unauthorised overdrafts has fallen owing to a major court case.
It has accused banks of raising the rate on authorised overdrafts to make up the difference.
"It is like a balloon," says Phil Jones, of Which?. "When you push in one part, it comes out in another."
"So we see that the banks are consistently taking sneaky ways to make money out of people."
Many banks have reduced the rates on unauthorised overdrafts.
On 1 October, the Royal Bank of Scotland cut its charges. On 1 December, the Halifax will restructure the way it charges customers, which will benefit some people with an overdraft.
In relation to high rates on authorised overdrafts, the industry argues that its own costs remain stubbornly high.
The British Bankers' Association (BBA), which represents the banks, is reminding everyone that the cost of borrowing no longer tracks the Bank rate as it once did.
Instead banks have to borrow money on the more expensive wholesale market. The risk of borrowers defaulting is also higher than it was.
It claims the rate on authorised overdrafts is at its highest level since records began in the mid-1990s.
According to the latest Bank of England statistics, the average overdraft rate is 18.96%, although many of the big banks can charge considerably more.
Which? says that the rate for unauthorised overdrafts has fallen owing to a major court case.
It has accused banks of raising the rate on authorised overdrafts to make up the difference.
"It is like a balloon," says Phil Jones, of Which?. "When you push in one part, it comes out in another."
"So we see that the banks are consistently taking sneaky ways to make money out of people."
Many banks have reduced the rates on unauthorised overdrafts.
On 1 October, the Royal Bank of Scotland cut its charges. On 1 December, the Halifax will restructure the way it charges customers, which will benefit some people with an overdraft.
In relation to high rates on authorised overdrafts, the industry argues that its own costs remain stubbornly high.
The British Bankers' Association (BBA), which represents the banks, is reminding everyone that the cost of borrowing no longer tracks the Bank rate as it once did.
Instead banks have to borrow money on the more expensive wholesale market. The risk of borrowers defaulting is also higher than it was.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 2:58 PM 0 comments
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Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Money worries affects work performance
Eight out of ten people admit they feel anxious about their finances, with many saying their worries affect their performance at work.
Around 5 per cent of people say they have taken time off work during the past 12 months because of their money worries, while seven out of 10 people admit they spend time thinking about their finances when they should be working.
More than a third of those questioned said their financial concerns prevented them from performing at their best, with 4 per cent saying they spend at least four hours a day worrying about money.
The most pressing concern for most people is paying their bills and repaying debt, although 35 per cent of those questioned said they were also worried about the economic recovery.
Just over half of people said they planned to try to save more, but 56 per cent admitted they did not set aside any time each month to manage their finances.
Around 5 per cent of people say they have taken time off work during the past 12 months because of their money worries, while seven out of 10 people admit they spend time thinking about their finances when they should be working.
More than a third of those questioned said their financial concerns prevented them from performing at their best, with 4 per cent saying they spend at least four hours a day worrying about money.
The most pressing concern for most people is paying their bills and repaying debt, although 35 per cent of those questioned said they were also worried about the economic recovery.
Just over half of people said they planned to try to save more, but 56 per cent admitted they did not set aside any time each month to manage their finances.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, home loans, recession, sub prime loans, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 2:15 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Credit- how to make an application- without damaging your history
If you make an application for a loan or credit and are rejected, it can have a negative impact on your credit record. Here's a useful new way to avoid that fate:
If you've ever been turned down for a credit card or other financial product you've no doubt felt frustrated, confused or just plain annoyed - why on earth were you turned down?
Since the credit crunch lenders have become pickier about whom they will lend money too, applying increasingly stringent criteria. And as we all know, a good deal of their information is obtained from credit agencies - companies that hold details of our financial dealings.
Whenever we apply for a financial product, the lender involved carries out a credit search (which essentially gives them an idea of how likely they are to get their money back).
However, these searches leave so-called "hard footprints" on your credit record. When you come to apply for credit again, future lenders can see if you've been turned down in the past - and on the strength of this decide to offer you a more expensive deal than the one you've applied for, if indeed they make you an offer at all.
And too many failed applications in a short space of time can create a cluster of hard footprints which could scare future lenders off as you look desperate for credit. Yikes.
But that may be about to change. Barclaycard has launched an innovative "Credit Pre-application Check" which claims to tell us within one minute whether we would be accepted by the company for credit.
And the best bit is it won't leave a hard footprint on your credit record (instead it leaves only a "search footprint" that shows your information has been accessed). So you should be able to see how likely you are to be approved a Barclaycard credit card, whilst not affecting your ability to get credit in the future.
So what does the check entail? Well I took a look at the site and discovered that after entering your personal details you must then enter your employment status, pre-tax earnings, whether you're a Barclays' customer and how you intend to use the card (whether it's for a balance transfer, to make purchases or to earn rewards on purchases).
Enter the details, click "submit" and you should receive a result within seconds.
Depending on the type of card you're interested in, Barclaycard will tell you the percentage likelihood of you being accepted, should you choose to apply for it.
If you've ever been turned down for a credit card or other financial product you've no doubt felt frustrated, confused or just plain annoyed - why on earth were you turned down?
Since the credit crunch lenders have become pickier about whom they will lend money too, applying increasingly stringent criteria. And as we all know, a good deal of their information is obtained from credit agencies - companies that hold details of our financial dealings.
Whenever we apply for a financial product, the lender involved carries out a credit search (which essentially gives them an idea of how likely they are to get their money back).
However, these searches leave so-called "hard footprints" on your credit record. When you come to apply for credit again, future lenders can see if you've been turned down in the past - and on the strength of this decide to offer you a more expensive deal than the one you've applied for, if indeed they make you an offer at all.
And too many failed applications in a short space of time can create a cluster of hard footprints which could scare future lenders off as you look desperate for credit. Yikes.
But that may be about to change. Barclaycard has launched an innovative "Credit Pre-application Check" which claims to tell us within one minute whether we would be accepted by the company for credit.
And the best bit is it won't leave a hard footprint on your credit record (instead it leaves only a "search footprint" that shows your information has been accessed). So you should be able to see how likely you are to be approved a Barclaycard credit card, whilst not affecting your ability to get credit in the future.
So what does the check entail? Well I took a look at the site and discovered that after entering your personal details you must then enter your employment status, pre-tax earnings, whether you're a Barclays' customer and how you intend to use the card (whether it's for a balance transfer, to make purchases or to earn rewards on purchases).
Enter the details, click "submit" and you should receive a result within seconds.
Depending on the type of card you're interested in, Barclaycard will tell you the percentage likelihood of you being accepted, should you choose to apply for it.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 7:56 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, November 05, 2009
Bank of England prints another £25bn in quantitative easing
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee voted today to expand its vast programme to pump cash into the UK economy by £25bn, in a sign that it remains worried about the outlook in spite of incipient signs of recovery.
The move to increase “quantitative easing” – creating money in order to boost spending – from the existing £175bn used had been widely expected by economists after official figures suggested the UK remained mired in recession in the third quarter.
However, the addition of a further £25bn to the programme, which is likely to be used mostly to buy government debt, signals a slowing down in the pace of the Bank’s pace of monetary easing. In August the Bank had opted to expand the programme by £50bn, which has been used up over the last three months.
The additional £25bn in quantitative easing will take the total programme undertaken by the Bank to £200bn. The new money will be spent over the next three months.
The MPC said that the world economy had “shown signs of recovery” and that asset prices had risen internationally, “reflecting both the gradual improvement in the economic climate and accommodative monetary policies.”
In the UK, it said that although the third quarter had registered a continued contraction in the economy “a number of indicators of spending and confidence, however, suggest that a pickup in economic activity may soon be evident.”
The move to increase “quantitative easing” – creating money in order to boost spending – from the existing £175bn used had been widely expected by economists after official figures suggested the UK remained mired in recession in the third quarter.
However, the addition of a further £25bn to the programme, which is likely to be used mostly to buy government debt, signals a slowing down in the pace of the Bank’s pace of monetary easing. In August the Bank had opted to expand the programme by £50bn, which has been used up over the last three months.
The additional £25bn in quantitative easing will take the total programme undertaken by the Bank to £200bn. The new money will be spent over the next three months.
The MPC said that the world economy had “shown signs of recovery” and that asset prices had risen internationally, “reflecting both the gradual improvement in the economic climate and accommodative monetary policies.”
In the UK, it said that although the third quarter had registered a continued contraction in the economy “a number of indicators of spending and confidence, however, suggest that a pickup in economic activity may soon be evident.”
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, loans, Quantitative Easing, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 1:04 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, October 29, 2009
UK house prices rise for fifth month in a row
House prices in England and Wales rose by 0.9pc in September, according to figures released by the UK Land Registry.
The data from the Land Registry's House Price Index shows an annual drop of 5.6pc, taking the average house price in England and Wales to £158,377. But this is the fifth month in a row that the annual rate of decline has eased.
All regions experienced a decrease in their average property values over the last 12 months. The region with the most significant annual price fall was the North East with a movement of -8.2pc.
The most up-to-date figures available show that during July 2009 the number of completed house sales in England and Wales rose by 9pc to 57,579, up from 52,628 in July 2008. Monthly sales in England and Wales have risen steadily each month since January 2009 when they stood at 26,662.
London experienced the greatest monthly price rise, rising 1.3pc, with the average property price in the capital now £314,954.
London and the South East are the two regions most responsible for the positive growth experienced by England and Wales as a whole. Wales was the region with the most significant monthly price fall with a movement of minus 2.6 pc.
The number of sales averaged 48,109 per month from April 2009 to July 2009. In the same time period the year before, transaction volumes averaged 59,677 per month.
The data from the Land Registry's House Price Index shows an annual drop of 5.6pc, taking the average house price in England and Wales to £158,377. But this is the fifth month in a row that the annual rate of decline has eased.
All regions experienced a decrease in their average property values over the last 12 months. The region with the most significant annual price fall was the North East with a movement of -8.2pc.
The most up-to-date figures available show that during July 2009 the number of completed house sales in England and Wales rose by 9pc to 57,579, up from 52,628 in July 2008. Monthly sales in England and Wales have risen steadily each month since January 2009 when they stood at 26,662.
London experienced the greatest monthly price rise, rising 1.3pc, with the average property price in the capital now £314,954.
London and the South East are the two regions most responsible for the positive growth experienced by England and Wales as a whole. Wales was the region with the most significant monthly price fall with a movement of minus 2.6 pc.
The number of sales averaged 48,109 per month from April 2009 to July 2009. In the same time period the year before, transaction volumes averaged 59,677 per month.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: home loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:16 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Northern Rock home loans are best buy after rate cuts
Nationalised bank Northern Rock has cut its home loans rates for the third time in as many weeks, pushing it to the top of the best buy tables.
The group is reducing the interest charged on 14 of its mortgages by up to 0.64 of a percentage point, leaving it with three market-leading deals.
It now has the top two-year fixed-rate mortgage on offer with a rate of 3.65pc for people with a 30pc deposit who pay a £595 fee, as well as a best buy two-year tracker of 2.69pc with the same terms.
The group is also offering a rate of 4.99pc on its five-year fixed rate mortgage, equalling the current market leading rate offered by Newcastle Building Society.
The Newcastle deal is available to borrowers with a deposit of only 25pc, while Northern Rock demands 30pc, but it has a lower arrangement fee at £595, compared with Newcastle's £994.
Northern Rock also today launched eight new mortgages for people borrowing up to 80pc of their home's value.
The taxpayers-owned group has to operate its mortgage range within the constraints of its self-imposed competitive framework, under which it is limited to writing 2.5pc of new mortgage lending.
But unlike the savings market, where it is not allowed to offer best buy rates according to the Moneyfacts charts, there is no similar constraint on its mortgage deals. It pledged earlier this year to advance up to £4bn through mortgage lending during 2009 and up to £10 billion in 2010.
The latest round of rate cuts by Northern Rock is a further sign that competition is returning to the mortgage market. Abbey, part of Spanish banking giant Santander, has reduced rates on a number of its fixed rate and tracker deals by up to 0.3 of a percentage point.
A flurry of major lenders, including Nationwide, Barclays-owned Woolwich, and Cheltenham & Gloucester, which is part of Lloyds Banking Group, have all cut their rates at least once this month.
The group is reducing the interest charged on 14 of its mortgages by up to 0.64 of a percentage point, leaving it with three market-leading deals.
It now has the top two-year fixed-rate mortgage on offer with a rate of 3.65pc for people with a 30pc deposit who pay a £595 fee, as well as a best buy two-year tracker of 2.69pc with the same terms.
The group is also offering a rate of 4.99pc on its five-year fixed rate mortgage, equalling the current market leading rate offered by Newcastle Building Society.
The Newcastle deal is available to borrowers with a deposit of only 25pc, while Northern Rock demands 30pc, but it has a lower arrangement fee at £595, compared with Newcastle's £994.
Northern Rock also today launched eight new mortgages for people borrowing up to 80pc of their home's value.
The taxpayers-owned group has to operate its mortgage range within the constraints of its self-imposed competitive framework, under which it is limited to writing 2.5pc of new mortgage lending.
But unlike the savings market, where it is not allowed to offer best buy rates according to the Moneyfacts charts, there is no similar constraint on its mortgage deals. It pledged earlier this year to advance up to £4bn through mortgage lending during 2009 and up to £10 billion in 2010.
The latest round of rate cuts by Northern Rock is a further sign that competition is returning to the mortgage market. Abbey, part of Spanish banking giant Santander, has reduced rates on a number of its fixed rate and tracker deals by up to 0.3 of a percentage point.
A flurry of major lenders, including Nationwide, Barclays-owned Woolwich, and Cheltenham & Gloucester, which is part of Lloyds Banking Group, have all cut their rates at least once this month.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: home loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:04 AM 0 comments
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Saturday, October 17, 2009
UK house prices to fall 10pc in 2010
House prices in Britain will fall 10 per cent next year, reversing their recovery of recent months.
Rising unemployment and a failure of mortgage lenders to offer cheap home loans will mean property will stay unaffordable for too many consumers, forcing prices down in a "second wave of house price falls".
Capital Economics is predicting that house prices will fall by 10 per cent next year and 5 per cent the following year, taking the average price from £163,500 – on the Halifax house price index – to below £139,000 by the end of 2011.
The prediction implies that house prices will, having recovered in recent months, fall to below their trough back in April, when they hit a low of £154,500.
Capital Economics, which has a history of being bearish on house prices, admits it is being pessimistic, but warns that there was a downside to a rapid recovery in the economy. "While we may be underestimating the potential for an economic recovery, stronger growth would be accompanied by higher interest rates. That would only add to the pressure for lower house prices," it said.
Its pessimistic outlook on house prices follows two weeks after the ratings agency Fitch predicted house prices had a further 17 per cent to fall. Fitch argued that prices, despite their fall from the peak of the summer of 2007 when they hit £199,000, were still too expensive, when compared with the average earnings of British workers.
The severe shortage of houses on the market – as cautious owners hold back from selling at depressed prices – has caused a strong recovery in recent months.
In some areas such as Oxfordshire and London estate agents have even reported a return of gazumping, the practice of home buyers outbidding each other, even when the offer price has been accepted.
Capital Economics said this recovery was unsustainable, with the likelihood of severe job cuts in the public sector looming. Most economists, even the most optimistic, believe that unemployment is likely to climb from 2.47 million to close to 3 million next year, forcing many people to sell their houses.
Rising unemployment and a failure of mortgage lenders to offer cheap home loans will mean property will stay unaffordable for too many consumers, forcing prices down in a "second wave of house price falls".
Capital Economics is predicting that house prices will fall by 10 per cent next year and 5 per cent the following year, taking the average price from £163,500 – on the Halifax house price index – to below £139,000 by the end of 2011.
The prediction implies that house prices will, having recovered in recent months, fall to below their trough back in April, when they hit a low of £154,500.
Capital Economics, which has a history of being bearish on house prices, admits it is being pessimistic, but warns that there was a downside to a rapid recovery in the economy. "While we may be underestimating the potential for an economic recovery, stronger growth would be accompanied by higher interest rates. That would only add to the pressure for lower house prices," it said.
Its pessimistic outlook on house prices follows two weeks after the ratings agency Fitch predicted house prices had a further 17 per cent to fall. Fitch argued that prices, despite their fall from the peak of the summer of 2007 when they hit £199,000, were still too expensive, when compared with the average earnings of British workers.
The severe shortage of houses on the market – as cautious owners hold back from selling at depressed prices – has caused a strong recovery in recent months.
In some areas such as Oxfordshire and London estate agents have even reported a return of gazumping, the practice of home buyers outbidding each other, even when the offer price has been accepted.
Capital Economics said this recovery was unsustainable, with the likelihood of severe job cuts in the public sector looming. Most economists, even the most optimistic, believe that unemployment is likely to climb from 2.47 million to close to 3 million next year, forcing many people to sell their houses.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, home loans, refinancing rates, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:26 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, October 14, 2009
UK banks are ripping us off
It's getting cheaper for banks to borrow money, but not for the likes of you and me.
Last week, the British Bankers Association - a trade body for banks, funnily enough - published a factsheet called Your Mortgage and the Markets explaining why, although it may seem like banks are profiting hugely by pricing their mortgages much higher than they need to, actually they're not.
It is the second time lenders have been forced to defind how they price their mortgages, after a similar publication from a second trade body, the Council of Mortgage Lenders, a couple of months ago.
I'm not surprised that they feel they have to explain themselves.
Cast your mind back a year or so ago to when Bank Base Rate first started falling to its current record low. Lenders would pull their entire range of trackers before a Base Rate decision, only to release a new, slightly more expensive range, a few days later - when it was actually cheaper for them to borrow money from the Bank of England!
The explanation? Banks don't just borrow funds from the Bank of England. They borrow from each other. And actually, nowadays, the banks were quick to explain, it is the LIBOR rate (the rate at which banks lend to each other) that is the crucial factor in determining the interest rates of loans and mortgages. And as that wasn't moving, tracker rates wouldn't.
Now of course LIBOR has fallen as well, so that it is barely any higher than the Base Rate, and surprise surprise, the banks have changed their tune.
The banks argue that the Bank Base Rate, LIBOR and swap rates (traditionally the mechanism by which lenders secured cash for fixed rate mortgages) are no longer indicators - the rates offered to savers are apparently a better guide.
This is because, they say, with the wholesale and securitisation markets effectively closed, banks are forced to rely on raising money through savings accounts, which is a pretty expensive method at the best of times. Add in the fact that all banks are in the same boat, competing for the same savings business, and you can see why costs might start to creep up.
But that doesn't mean you can simply dismiss things like LIBOR and swap rates as indicators of where mortgage pricing should be. They may not be the be all and end all, but they remain very important factors.
And they also shine the light on just how big a cut the banks are taking at the moment, a fact brilliantly outlined by some research from lovemoney.com partner, Moneyfacts.
Let's start with the average two year mortgage - forever and a day the favourite mortgage of Brits. In September 2007, for a 75% loan-to-value mortgage, the average rate was about 0.18 percentage points above swap rates. A year later, that margin had increased to 0.7 percentage points.
Today, it stands at an extraordinary 2.79 percentage points above the swap rates.
The position is even worse with high loan-to-value mortgages. With a 90% mortgage, in September 2007, that margin stood at just 0.02 percentage points. By last September it had reached 1.34 percentage points. And last month it stood at a whopping 4.25 percentage points above swap rates. So they're typically making more than 212 times as much profit on the funds they borrow using swap rates, than they were just two years ago!
No wonder the banks want us to ignore swap rates!
Last week, the British Bankers Association - a trade body for banks, funnily enough - published a factsheet called Your Mortgage and the Markets explaining why, although it may seem like banks are profiting hugely by pricing their mortgages much higher than they need to, actually they're not.
It is the second time lenders have been forced to defind how they price their mortgages, after a similar publication from a second trade body, the Council of Mortgage Lenders, a couple of months ago.
I'm not surprised that they feel they have to explain themselves.
Cast your mind back a year or so ago to when Bank Base Rate first started falling to its current record low. Lenders would pull their entire range of trackers before a Base Rate decision, only to release a new, slightly more expensive range, a few days later - when it was actually cheaper for them to borrow money from the Bank of England!
The explanation? Banks don't just borrow funds from the Bank of England. They borrow from each other. And actually, nowadays, the banks were quick to explain, it is the LIBOR rate (the rate at which banks lend to each other) that is the crucial factor in determining the interest rates of loans and mortgages. And as that wasn't moving, tracker rates wouldn't.
Now of course LIBOR has fallen as well, so that it is barely any higher than the Base Rate, and surprise surprise, the banks have changed their tune.
The banks argue that the Bank Base Rate, LIBOR and swap rates (traditionally the mechanism by which lenders secured cash for fixed rate mortgages) are no longer indicators - the rates offered to savers are apparently a better guide.
This is because, they say, with the wholesale and securitisation markets effectively closed, banks are forced to rely on raising money through savings accounts, which is a pretty expensive method at the best of times. Add in the fact that all banks are in the same boat, competing for the same savings business, and you can see why costs might start to creep up.
But that doesn't mean you can simply dismiss things like LIBOR and swap rates as indicators of where mortgage pricing should be. They may not be the be all and end all, but they remain very important factors.
And they also shine the light on just how big a cut the banks are taking at the moment, a fact brilliantly outlined by some research from lovemoney.com partner, Moneyfacts.
Let's start with the average two year mortgage - forever and a day the favourite mortgage of Brits. In September 2007, for a 75% loan-to-value mortgage, the average rate was about 0.18 percentage points above swap rates. A year later, that margin had increased to 0.7 percentage points.
Today, it stands at an extraordinary 2.79 percentage points above the swap rates.
The position is even worse with high loan-to-value mortgages. With a 90% mortgage, in September 2007, that margin stood at just 0.02 percentage points. By last September it had reached 1.34 percentage points. And last month it stood at a whopping 4.25 percentage points above swap rates. So they're typically making more than 212 times as much profit on the funds they borrow using swap rates, than they were just two years ago!
No wonder the banks want us to ignore swap rates!
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, interest rates, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:36 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, October 13, 2009
UK inflation falls to lowest in five years
The rate of UK inflation fell more than expected last month, dropping to the lowest level in five years, as the downturn kept a lid on price pressures.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) showed that prices rose 1.1pc in September compared with a year earlier. City economists had expected the figure would come in at 1.3pc. Prices have not registered such a small increase since September 2004.
The CPI measure is used by the Bank of England to set the level of interest rates, which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has signalled are likely to remain at low levels for months as it seeks to shore up a recovery.
Economists had expected deflationary pressures in the economy to drive prices down below the 1pc threshold on a CPI measure which would force Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, to write a letter of explanation to the Chancellor.
However, CPI has remained higher thanks to the weak pound and a rise in fuel duty, factors that have helped offset the absence of higher utility bills compared with a year ago.
The Bank has embarked on a series of radical policy measures to combat the twin threats of deflation and depression, including slashing interest rates to a record low of 0.5pc and pursuing a programme of printing money, or quantitative easing (QE), which has seen £150bn injected into the economy.
The broader measure of inflation, known as the retail price index, fell 1.4pc compared with September 2008. Economists had expected a figure of 1.5pc.
The wider measure of inflation, which includes house prices and mortgage interest payments - the Retail Prices Index - has been negative since April.
Sharply lower mortgage interest payments compared with a year earlier have helped to keep the index in negative territory.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) showed that prices rose 1.1pc in September compared with a year earlier. City economists had expected the figure would come in at 1.3pc. Prices have not registered such a small increase since September 2004.
The CPI measure is used by the Bank of England to set the level of interest rates, which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has signalled are likely to remain at low levels for months as it seeks to shore up a recovery.
Economists had expected deflationary pressures in the economy to drive prices down below the 1pc threshold on a CPI measure which would force Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, to write a letter of explanation to the Chancellor.
However, CPI has remained higher thanks to the weak pound and a rise in fuel duty, factors that have helped offset the absence of higher utility bills compared with a year ago.
The Bank has embarked on a series of radical policy measures to combat the twin threats of deflation and depression, including slashing interest rates to a record low of 0.5pc and pursuing a programme of printing money, or quantitative easing (QE), which has seen £150bn injected into the economy.
The broader measure of inflation, known as the retail price index, fell 1.4pc compared with September 2008. Economists had expected a figure of 1.5pc.
The wider measure of inflation, which includes house prices and mortgage interest payments - the Retail Prices Index - has been negative since April.
Sharply lower mortgage interest payments compared with a year earlier have helped to keep the index in negative territory.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, home loans-rates-UK, inflation, Quantitative Easing, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:40 AM 0 comments
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Monday, October 12, 2009
Loans rates to stay low until 2014
Loans interest rates will stay at rock bottom in the years to come as the labour Government tackles the wounded economy, a report says.
The cost of borrowing is to remain at its record low of 0.5pc until at least 2011 and remain below 2pc until 2014, according to a study by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
A weaker pound - slumping to just 1.40 US dollars and possibly falling below parity with the euro - is also expected.
The CEBR predicts the next government will have to engineer around £100 billion in tax rises and spending cuts to deal with the country's deficit.
Political parties are already vying to explain how they plan to address the dire public finances after next year's general election.
The report forecasts that should the Conservatives win power this will mean £20 billion in extra taxes with an £80 billion reduction in spending.
A future government will have to wrestle the budget deficit down to £50 billion by the 2014/15 financial year, a tough challenge as the CEBR also warns that the deficit will be £143 billion in that year without action.
The report also predicts the Bank of England will increase its quantitative easing (QE) programme - essentially printing money - by another £75 billion.
This month the Bank voted to not to increase its programme to boost the money supply from its current £175 billion.
But further QE is expected, not least because governor Mervyn King and two other committee members have already argued for a £75 billion boost to the scheme.
The cost of borrowing is to remain at its record low of 0.5pc until at least 2011 and remain below 2pc until 2014, according to a study by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
A weaker pound - slumping to just 1.40 US dollars and possibly falling below parity with the euro - is also expected.
The CEBR predicts the next government will have to engineer around £100 billion in tax rises and spending cuts to deal with the country's deficit.
Political parties are already vying to explain how they plan to address the dire public finances after next year's general election.
The report forecasts that should the Conservatives win power this will mean £20 billion in extra taxes with an £80 billion reduction in spending.
A future government will have to wrestle the budget deficit down to £50 billion by the 2014/15 financial year, a tough challenge as the CEBR also warns that the deficit will be £143 billion in that year without action.
The report also predicts the Bank of England will increase its quantitative easing (QE) programme - essentially printing money - by another £75 billion.
This month the Bank voted to not to increase its programme to boost the money supply from its current £175 billion.
But further QE is expected, not least because governor Mervyn King and two other committee members have already argued for a £75 billion boost to the scheme.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, falling interest rates, interest rates, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:35 AM 0 comments
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Thursday, October 01, 2009
UK mortgage lending increases- Bank of England
Mortgage lending increased after a dip in July but economists suggested the recovery in the housing market may be “losing steam”.
Net mortgage lending – which strips out redemptions and repayments – climbed by £1 billion in August from the previous month to £1.227 trillion, according to the Bank of England.
The figures also suggested that the number of mortgage approvals for those buying a new home remained steady at 52,317 in August, marginally down from 52,404 the previous month.
Numbers remortgaging also fell – but more markedly to 29,000 in August, down from almost 34,000 in July.
Net mortgage lending – which strips out redemptions and repayments – climbed by £1 billion in August from the previous month to £1.227 trillion, according to the Bank of England.
The figures also suggested that the number of mortgage approvals for those buying a new home remained steady at 52,317 in August, marginally down from 52,404 the previous month.
Numbers remortgaging also fell – but more markedly to 29,000 in August, down from almost 34,000 in July.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, mortgage calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:08 AM 0 comments
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Friday, September 25, 2009
Crisis – what crisis- as large homes defy downturn
Large families are returning to the property market with gusto, chasing homes in the London neighbourhoods with green spaces, good schools, period architecture, smart little shops and farmers’ markets.
Prices are recovering most strongly in the area of southwest London stretching from Fulham to Richmond, taking in Chiswick, Clapham, Wandsworth and Wimbledon — amid rising concern that values in locations outside the capital could stagnate for some years.
These suburbs, popular with City bankers and members of the professions and their families, were the first to be affected in the downturn. But prime southwest London is now resurgent, eclipsing Belgravia, Chelsea and the rest of prime Central London.
Prices are recovering most strongly in the area of southwest London stretching from Fulham to Richmond, taking in Chiswick, Clapham, Wandsworth and Wimbledon — amid rising concern that values in locations outside the capital could stagnate for some years.
These suburbs, popular with City bankers and members of the professions and their families, were the first to be affected in the downturn. But prime southwest London is now resurgent, eclipsing Belgravia, Chelsea and the rest of prime Central London.
In the past three months, prices have climbed by an average of 8.4 per cent, after growth of 6.4 per cent in the previous quarter. Prices are 2.5 per cent higher than a year ago, cancelling out the decline that followed the fall of Lehman Brothers.
Savills, the estate agent, calculates that the average £1 million home in southwest London is appreciating in value by £741 a day, whereas the average £2 million Chelsea property is adding only £713 a day.
Bankers, or at least their wives, who are looking for a home are prepared to spend about £2 million — a typical boomtime budget. Nearly three buyers are pursuing each property for sale.
Savills, the estate agent, calculates that the average £1 million home in southwest London is appreciating in value by £741 a day, whereas the average £2 million Chelsea property is adding only £713 a day.
Bankers, or at least their wives, who are looking for a home are prepared to spend about £2 million — a typical boomtime budget. Nearly three buyers are pursuing each property for sale.
The good mood in Clapham, Fulham and Wandsworth and the other leafy suburbs is beginning to spread into other parts of London, including Docklands. Prices are also rising in the commutable parts of Kent and Surrey. Winchester, in Hampshire, is another bright spot.
But Savills is much less optimistic about the outlook for other regions, fearing the development of a two-tier market of some duration. Yolande Barnes, a Savills research director, said that buyers remained locked out by lenders’ insistence on hefty deposits. Unemployment, public sector spending cuts and the likelihood of higher taxes could also be a drag on prices.
Ms Barnes believes that the shortage of credit available to such buyers may contribute to a permanent reversal of the century-long trend for increased ownership. Fewer than 70 per cent of householders own or are buying their home, a level not seen since the mid-1990s.
But Savills is much less optimistic about the outlook for other regions, fearing the development of a two-tier market of some duration. Yolande Barnes, a Savills research director, said that buyers remained locked out by lenders’ insistence on hefty deposits. Unemployment, public sector spending cuts and the likelihood of higher taxes could also be a drag on prices.
Ms Barnes believes that the shortage of credit available to such buyers may contribute to a permanent reversal of the century-long trend for increased ownership. Fewer than 70 per cent of householders own or are buying their home, a level not seen since the mid-1990s.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, home loans, Loan calculator, loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:34 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, September 23, 2009
UK loans rates may reach 2% next year
The Bank of England may start to raise interest rates next spring and could take the cost of borrowing to 2 per cent by the end of next year, according to the latest economic forecasts.
The Bank has held rates at a record low of 0.5 per cent to help businesses and consumers to contend with the recession, but the central bank will need room to act in the coming months if inflationary pressures become a worry, the employers’ organisation said. Ian McCafferty, the CBI’s chief economic adviser, said that he expected inflation to be volatile next year, renewing pressure on the Bank.
The CBI forecasts that the consumer prices index will rise by 2.4 per cent during the first quarter of next year. The Bank’s official target is to limit inflation to 2 per cent.
However, Mr McCafferty said that the CBI would welcome interest rate rises next year as a sign that normality was beginning to return to the economic cycle. “It is fairly clear to us that the Bank of England will be maintaining the very accommodative stance that it has had throughout the period. But the Bank will want to avoid problems it has faced in previous cycles, where it gets boxed in and finds it hard to act over monetary policy,” he said.
His comments came as the CBI upgraded its forecasts for Britain’s economic prospects, predicting that Britain would emerge from recession by the end of this month.
The CBI’s predictions of quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP of 0.3 per cent in the third quarter and 0.4 per cent in the fourth represent a sharp rise in confidence from the business group. At its previous economic forecast in June, it said that the economy would shrink by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter and stagnate with flat growth for the rest of the year.
The Bank has held rates at a record low of 0.5 per cent to help businesses and consumers to contend with the recession, but the central bank will need room to act in the coming months if inflationary pressures become a worry, the employers’ organisation said. Ian McCafferty, the CBI’s chief economic adviser, said that he expected inflation to be volatile next year, renewing pressure on the Bank.
The CBI forecasts that the consumer prices index will rise by 2.4 per cent during the first quarter of next year. The Bank’s official target is to limit inflation to 2 per cent.
However, Mr McCafferty said that the CBI would welcome interest rate rises next year as a sign that normality was beginning to return to the economic cycle. “It is fairly clear to us that the Bank of England will be maintaining the very accommodative stance that it has had throughout the period. But the Bank will want to avoid problems it has faced in previous cycles, where it gets boxed in and finds it hard to act over monetary policy,” he said.
His comments came as the CBI upgraded its forecasts for Britain’s economic prospects, predicting that Britain would emerge from recession by the end of this month.
The CBI’s predictions of quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP of 0.3 per cent in the third quarter and 0.4 per cent in the fourth represent a sharp rise in confidence from the business group. At its previous economic forecast in June, it said that the economy would shrink by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter and stagnate with flat growth for the rest of the year.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, home loans, interest rates, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:36 AM 0 comments
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Monday, September 21, 2009
Pound slips on Bank of England warning
Bank of England says that sterling's fall could reflect long term change in Britain's economy, with lower demand for its goods
The pound hit a five month low against the euro today after the Bank of England raised the prospect of a prolonged fall in the value of sterling against other currencies as a result of the credit crisis.
In its Quarterly Bulletin, the Bank tried to explain the reasons for the collapse in value of sterling since the final quarter of last year. It said: "It is possible that sterling's depreciation may be part of a more prolonged process of rebalancing of the UK economy, generating a fall in the long-run sustainable real exchange rate."
It pointed out that Britain has run current account deficits, financed by foreign investors buying British assets, since the mid-1990s. The financial crisis, however, may have forced those overseas investors to look elsewhere.
"The financial crisis may have led overseas investors to reasses their willingness or ability to purchase sterling assets and thereby finance the UK trade deficit. As a result, the long-run sustainable real sterling exchange rate ... may have fallen."
It also said that the Bank's programme of asset purchases - quantitative easing - may be having an effect. "Sterling will tend to depreciate if this policy causes portfolios to be balanced away from UK assets."
The Bank said: "There are several reasons why market participants might perceive that the financial crisis has prompted a fundamental shift in demand away from UK goods and services."
It said that Britain's higher dependence on financial services could have driven a permanent fall in the incomes of companies and households, while the global credit crisis could have caused a persistent fall in the global demand for financial services.
The euro rose 0.2 per cent against sterling to 90.79p, its highest since late April.
Against the dollar, it was down 0.6 per cent at $1.6175, near its weakest level in nearly three weeks.
The pound hit a five month low against the euro today after the Bank of England raised the prospect of a prolonged fall in the value of sterling against other currencies as a result of the credit crisis.
In its Quarterly Bulletin, the Bank tried to explain the reasons for the collapse in value of sterling since the final quarter of last year. It said: "It is possible that sterling's depreciation may be part of a more prolonged process of rebalancing of the UK economy, generating a fall in the long-run sustainable real exchange rate."
It pointed out that Britain has run current account deficits, financed by foreign investors buying British assets, since the mid-1990s. The financial crisis, however, may have forced those overseas investors to look elsewhere.
"The financial crisis may have led overseas investors to reasses their willingness or ability to purchase sterling assets and thereby finance the UK trade deficit. As a result, the long-run sustainable real sterling exchange rate ... may have fallen."
It also said that the Bank's programme of asset purchases - quantitative easing - may be having an effect. "Sterling will tend to depreciate if this policy causes portfolios to be balanced away from UK assets."
The Bank said: "There are several reasons why market participants might perceive that the financial crisis has prompted a fundamental shift in demand away from UK goods and services."
It said that Britain's higher dependence on financial services could have driven a permanent fall in the incomes of companies and households, while the global credit crisis could have caused a persistent fall in the global demand for financial services.
The euro rose 0.2 per cent against sterling to 90.79p, its highest since late April.
Against the dollar, it was down 0.6 per cent at $1.6175, near its weakest level in nearly three weeks.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, Quantitative Easing, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:46 AM 0 comments
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Friday, September 18, 2009
UK labour goverment borrowing highest on record
The appauling state of Britain’s public finances were laid bare today as the labour Government unveiled new figures that showed public sector net borrowing swelled by a record £16.1 billion in August.
It was the largest increase in the amount of new debt held by the UK Government since records began.
With the recession continuing to eat into government tax receipts, the Office for National Statistics said that public sector net borrowing hit £16.1 billion, up from £9.8 billion a year ago.
The figures will deal a further blow to Chancellor Alistair Darling’s hopes of restoring order to the nation’s finances.
The increase pushed net borrowing to £65.3 billion for the five months of the financial year so far, according to the ONS. That is more than twice the £26.1 billion seen at the same stage last year.
The public sector posted a net cash requirement of £10.3 billion in August - double the level of the same month a year ago.
It was the largest increase in the amount of new debt held by the UK Government since records began.
With the recession continuing to eat into government tax receipts, the Office for National Statistics said that public sector net borrowing hit £16.1 billion, up from £9.8 billion a year ago.
The figures will deal a further blow to Chancellor Alistair Darling’s hopes of restoring order to the nation’s finances.
The increase pushed net borrowing to £65.3 billion for the five months of the financial year so far, according to the ONS. That is more than twice the £26.1 billion seen at the same stage last year.
The public sector posted a net cash requirement of £10.3 billion in August - double the level of the same month a year ago.
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Labels: credit crunch, home loans, Loan calculator, loans, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 12:05 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, September 17, 2009
Gordon Brown accused of lying to Parliament on cuts
Gordon Brown was accused last night of misleading the Commons after leaked Treasury papers disclosed unpublished government plans to cut spending by £36 billion a year by 2014.
David Cameron said that while Mr Brown was accusing the Conservatives of planning cuts of 10 per cent, and insisting that he did not want to do the same, his own officials were telling him that spending might have to be reduced by 9.3 per cent in five years.
The papers suggest that the Treasury privately took a far more pessimistic view about long-term unemployment and the cost of servicing the national debt than did independent commentators at the time of the Budget.
The document, headed HM Treasury Fiscal Tables, projects that spending will be reduced by just under 1 per cent in 2010-11, 4 per cent in 2011-12, just under 2 per cent in 2012-13 and 3 per cent in 2013-14.
Based on figures published at the time of the spring Budget, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggested that the Government would cut spending by 7 per cent by 2014. The Treasury’s own “assumptions”, based on Alistair Darling’s declared intention to cut the budget deficit in half by 2014, were more conservative than that. Its figures, circulated within the Treasury in June, suggested that social security spending would rise to £193billion, a real-terms increase of 2.1 per cent, as late as 2013-14, squeezing government spending elsewhere.
The papers also project that debt interest payments will rise from £27billion this year to nearly £64billion in 2013-14. The IFS had based its figures on the payments rising to £52billion.The leak was damaging to Mr Brown but also presents a challenge to Mr Cameron, who has said that he will cut the deficit faster than Labour.
Conservative officials emphasised last night that the figures showed the scale of the task facing any government. They pointed out that their existing plans meant that they would begin cutting spending a year earlier than Labour.
Mr Cameron told a press conference that Mr Brown’s integrity was on the line. “Gordon Brown was denying something that his own civil servants were telling him was true,” he said. It was a “cover-up” of the true state of the nation’s finances.
“Wednesday after Wednesday, the Prime Minister stood up in the House of Commons and repeated the line that the coming battle was between Labour investment on the one hand and Tory cuts on the other,” he said. “All those words have turned to dust and, as I consistently warned week after week, reality has now caught up with our Prime Minister.”
Mr Cameron said that the Conservatives had been candid about the need for spending cuts and would spell out their plans in more detail closer to the next election. “Let me make it clear: they are not wrong to be planning cuts but they are wrong to try to cover up their plans for cuts,” he said.
“This is about honesty, it is about trust. This is about not taking people for fools and on this issue, as I have to say on so many others, the Prime Minister does not seem to have learnt.”
George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, went farther, saying: “This is about Gordon Brown misleading the House of Commons, not telling the public the truth about his own Budget.”
David Cameron said that while Mr Brown was accusing the Conservatives of planning cuts of 10 per cent, and insisting that he did not want to do the same, his own officials were telling him that spending might have to be reduced by 9.3 per cent in five years.
The papers suggest that the Treasury privately took a far more pessimistic view about long-term unemployment and the cost of servicing the national debt than did independent commentators at the time of the Budget.
The document, headed HM Treasury Fiscal Tables, projects that spending will be reduced by just under 1 per cent in 2010-11, 4 per cent in 2011-12, just under 2 per cent in 2012-13 and 3 per cent in 2013-14.
Based on figures published at the time of the spring Budget, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggested that the Government would cut spending by 7 per cent by 2014. The Treasury’s own “assumptions”, based on Alistair Darling’s declared intention to cut the budget deficit in half by 2014, were more conservative than that. Its figures, circulated within the Treasury in June, suggested that social security spending would rise to £193billion, a real-terms increase of 2.1 per cent, as late as 2013-14, squeezing government spending elsewhere.
The papers also project that debt interest payments will rise from £27billion this year to nearly £64billion in 2013-14. The IFS had based its figures on the payments rising to £52billion.The leak was damaging to Mr Brown but also presents a challenge to Mr Cameron, who has said that he will cut the deficit faster than Labour.
Conservative officials emphasised last night that the figures showed the scale of the task facing any government. They pointed out that their existing plans meant that they would begin cutting spending a year earlier than Labour.
Mr Cameron told a press conference that Mr Brown’s integrity was on the line. “Gordon Brown was denying something that his own civil servants were telling him was true,” he said. It was a “cover-up” of the true state of the nation’s finances.
“Wednesday after Wednesday, the Prime Minister stood up in the House of Commons and repeated the line that the coming battle was between Labour investment on the one hand and Tory cuts on the other,” he said. “All those words have turned to dust and, as I consistently warned week after week, reality has now caught up with our Prime Minister.”
Mr Cameron said that the Conservatives had been candid about the need for spending cuts and would spell out their plans in more detail closer to the next election. “Let me make it clear: they are not wrong to be planning cuts but they are wrong to try to cover up their plans for cuts,” he said.
“This is about honesty, it is about trust. This is about not taking people for fools and on this issue, as I have to say on so many others, the Prime Minister does not seem to have learnt.”
George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, went farther, saying: “This is about Gordon Brown misleading the House of Commons, not telling the public the truth about his own Budget.”
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, labour liars, Loan calculator, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:30 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009
UK unemployment hits 14 year high of 2.47 million
British unemployment hit 2.47 million in July, its highest level since 1994, as 210,000 more people lost their jobs.
The number of people claiming jobseeker’s allowance rose by 24,400 to 1.61 million in August — the highest since May 1997 and the eighteenth monthly rise in a row, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The recession’s impact on young people was also underlined by jobless totals among 16 to 24-year-olds reaching 947,000 — the highest level since ONS records began in 1992.
The jobless rate among young people also hit a record 19.7 per cent, meaning one in five is looking for work.
Unemployment is set to rise despite indications that British economy has returned to growth.
Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, said yesterday that there were signs that the British economy was growing again though he added that the strength of recovery remained "highly uncertain".
Earlier in the week, a European Commission study concluded the economies of Britain and Continental Europe would return to growth by the end of the year while last week a study from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a leading think-tank, said Britain was climbing out of recession.
However, both warned that, following the emergence from recession, a period of stagnation could follow.
The number of people claiming jobseeker’s allowance rose by 24,400 to 1.61 million in August — the highest since May 1997 and the eighteenth monthly rise in a row, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The recession’s impact on young people was also underlined by jobless totals among 16 to 24-year-olds reaching 947,000 — the highest level since ONS records began in 1992.
The jobless rate among young people also hit a record 19.7 per cent, meaning one in five is looking for work.
Unemployment is set to rise despite indications that British economy has returned to growth.
Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, said yesterday that there were signs that the British economy was growing again though he added that the strength of recovery remained "highly uncertain".
Earlier in the week, a European Commission study concluded the economies of Britain and Continental Europe would return to growth by the end of the year while last week a study from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a leading think-tank, said Britain was climbing out of recession.
However, both warned that, following the emergence from recession, a period of stagnation could follow.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession, unemployment
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:00 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, September 15, 2009
UK Inflation falls to 1.6%
Inflation fell less than expected in August to 1.6 per cent after rising fuel off set a decline in utility and food bills.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation - the labour Government's preferred measure - fell from 1.8 per cent in July and below the 1.4 per cent expected by analysts.
Retail Prices Index (RPI) deflation which includes mortgage interest payments and is used as a measure for workers' pay deals, rose to minus 1.3 per cent in August from minus 1.4 per cent in July.
Steep rises in food and fuel prices pushed CPI to a peak of 5.2 per cent last September. Price falls since then have seen the figure fall steeply.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation - the labour Government's preferred measure - fell from 1.8 per cent in July and below the 1.4 per cent expected by analysts.
Retail Prices Index (RPI) deflation which includes mortgage interest payments and is used as a measure for workers' pay deals, rose to minus 1.3 per cent in August from minus 1.4 per cent in July.
Steep rises in food and fuel prices pushed CPI to a peak of 5.2 per cent last September. Price falls since then have seen the figure fall steeply.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: inflation, Oil, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:08 AM 0 comments
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Friday, September 11, 2009
UK loans interest rate kept at 0.5% by Bank of England
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted yesterday to hold interest rates at 0.5 per cent for the sixth month running.
The MPC also voted to make no change to the pace at which it is pumping cash into the economy through its quantitative easing (QE) programme — retaining the size of the programme at £175 billion.
It said that it expected the programme would take another two months to complete.
In its statement, the MPC said: “The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5 per cent.
“The Committee also voted to continue with its programme of asset purchases totalling £175 billion financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.
“The Committee expects the announced programme to take another two months to complete. The scale of the programme will be kept under review.”
The move had been widely anticipated by the markets, but sterling rose slightly against the dollar and the euro on foreign exchange markets immediately after the announcement, rising by 0.7 cents to $1.659 against the greenback.
The decision follows several indications that the economy may be returning to growth after five quarters of recession — including a recovery in manufacturing output, signs of a rally in the housing market and news that activity in the services sector is expanding again.
And it comes after the shock decision, at August’s policy meeting, to expand the Bank’s programme of asset purchases from £125 billion to £175 billion — although Mervyn King, the Bank Governor, and two other MPC members, David Miles and Tim Besley, had voted to expand the programme to £200 billion.
Details of yesterday’s vote will emerge with publication of minutes of today’s meeting on September 23.
The MPC also voted to make no change to the pace at which it is pumping cash into the economy through its quantitative easing (QE) programme — retaining the size of the programme at £175 billion.
It said that it expected the programme would take another two months to complete.
In its statement, the MPC said: “The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5 per cent.
“The Committee also voted to continue with its programme of asset purchases totalling £175 billion financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.
“The Committee expects the announced programme to take another two months to complete. The scale of the programme will be kept under review.”
The move had been widely anticipated by the markets, but sterling rose slightly against the dollar and the euro on foreign exchange markets immediately after the announcement, rising by 0.7 cents to $1.659 against the greenback.
The decision follows several indications that the economy may be returning to growth after five quarters of recession — including a recovery in manufacturing output, signs of a rally in the housing market and news that activity in the services sector is expanding again.
And it comes after the shock decision, at August’s policy meeting, to expand the Bank’s programme of asset purchases from £125 billion to £175 billion — although Mervyn King, the Bank Governor, and two other MPC members, David Miles and Tim Besley, had voted to expand the programme to £200 billion.
Details of yesterday’s vote will emerge with publication of minutes of today’s meeting on September 23.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, interest rates, MPC, Quantitative Easing, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:13 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, September 09, 2009
Greenspan says financial crisis will reoccur
Alan Greenspan, the former US Federal Reserve chairman blamed in some quarters for not doing enough to prevent the financial crisis, has predicted that more crashes are inevitable.
Speaking a year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank, Mr Greenspan said: "The crisis will happen again but it will be different. They (financial crises) are all different, but they have one fundamental source," he told the BBC. "That is the unquenchable capability of human beings when confronted with long periods of prosperity to presume that it will continue."
He added that, although the current crisis was triggered by the trade in US sub-prime mortgages, any factor could have been the catalyst. "Something sooner or later would have emerged", Mr Greenspan said.
The former US central bank chief claimed that the world's financial institutions should have foreseen the looming crisis. "The bankers knew that they were involved in an under pricing of risk and that at some point a correction would be made," he said. "I fear too many of them thought they would be able to spot the actual trigger point of the crisis in time to get out."
He also warned that Britain would be harder hit than the US by the current recession and collapse in world trade.
"Obviously we've both suffered very considerably but ... Britain is more globally oriented as an economy and the dramatic decline in exports globally and trade generally following the collapse of Lehman Brothers had dramatic effects in the financial system of Britain," Mr Greenspan said. "It's going to take a long while for you [Britain] to work your way through this."
But he cautioned that the path to recovery should steer clear of protectionism as applying strict regulations could hamper recent developments that have opened up global trade. "The most recent endeavour to re-regulate is a reaction to the crisis.
Speaking a year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank, Mr Greenspan said: "The crisis will happen again but it will be different. They (financial crises) are all different, but they have one fundamental source," he told the BBC. "That is the unquenchable capability of human beings when confronted with long periods of prosperity to presume that it will continue."
He added that, although the current crisis was triggered by the trade in US sub-prime mortgages, any factor could have been the catalyst. "Something sooner or later would have emerged", Mr Greenspan said.
The former US central bank chief claimed that the world's financial institutions should have foreseen the looming crisis. "The bankers knew that they were involved in an under pricing of risk and that at some point a correction would be made," he said. "I fear too many of them thought they would be able to spot the actual trigger point of the crisis in time to get out."
He also warned that Britain would be harder hit than the US by the current recession and collapse in world trade.
"Obviously we've both suffered very considerably but ... Britain is more globally oriented as an economy and the dramatic decline in exports globally and trade generally following the collapse of Lehman Brothers had dramatic effects in the financial system of Britain," Mr Greenspan said. "It's going to take a long while for you [Britain] to work your way through this."
But he cautioned that the path to recovery should steer clear of protectionism as applying strict regulations could hamper recent developments that have opened up global trade. "The most recent endeavour to re-regulate is a reaction to the crisis.
The extraordinary impact of these global markets is making a lot of financial people feeling they have lost control. The problem is you cannot have free global trade with highly restrictive, regulated domestic markets."
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Labels: Aussie loans rates, credit crunch, Greenspan, Loan calculator, recession, sub prime loans, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 1:46 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, September 03, 2009
Britain to lag world in emerging from recession
Britain's economy will lag other developed nations in emerging from recession, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The organisation, which exists to promote economic growth and development, said that several of the economies in the G7 group of developed nations would perform better during the whole of 2009 than it predicted in June — with Britain a glaring exception.
The news will come as an embarrassment to Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling ahead of this weekend's meeting of the G20 finance ministers in London and a summit in Pittsburgh beginning on September 24.
The OECD said that it now expected the UK economy to contract by 4.7 per cent for the year as a whole. That compares with the 4.3 per cent contraction it forecast in its June Economic Outlook forecast.
Britain was the only member of the G7 group of developed nations for which the Paris-based organisation has reduced its growth forecast since June. The OECD now expects the eurozone to suffer a 3.9 per cent contraction during the year, compared with the 4.8 per cent previously forecast, while the predicted contraction for Japan's economy has come down from 6.8 per cent to 5.6 per cent.
Within the eurozone, the outlook for Germany and France has improved significantly, with the German economy predicted to contract by 4.8 per cent this year — down from the 6.1 per cent forecast by the OECD in June. The organisation also expects the French economy to contract by only 2.1 per cent this year — down from the 3 per cent reduction it expected three months ago.
The organisation, which exists to promote economic growth and development, said that several of the economies in the G7 group of developed nations would perform better during the whole of 2009 than it predicted in June — with Britain a glaring exception.
The news will come as an embarrassment to Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling ahead of this weekend's meeting of the G20 finance ministers in London and a summit in Pittsburgh beginning on September 24.
The OECD said that it now expected the UK economy to contract by 4.7 per cent for the year as a whole. That compares with the 4.3 per cent contraction it forecast in its June Economic Outlook forecast.
Britain was the only member of the G7 group of developed nations for which the Paris-based organisation has reduced its growth forecast since June. The OECD now expects the eurozone to suffer a 3.9 per cent contraction during the year, compared with the 4.8 per cent previously forecast, while the predicted contraction for Japan's economy has come down from 6.8 per cent to 5.6 per cent.
Within the eurozone, the outlook for Germany and France has improved significantly, with the German economy predicted to contract by 4.8 per cent this year — down from the 6.1 per cent forecast by the OECD in June. The organisation also expects the French economy to contract by only 2.1 per cent this year — down from the 3 per cent reduction it expected three months ago.
It predicted that the UK economy would contract by 1 per cent during the third quarter of 2009 — lagging the US, Japan, Germany and France — and forecast it will experience zero growth during the fourth quarter of the year.
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Labels: credit crunch, euro, G7, OECD, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:57 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Mortgage Interest Rates for the self employed and people with bad credit histories
Mortgage Interest Rates- 
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At Wise Money we work with a number of different financial services providers. As a result we find that we are able to provide competitive rates and terms for a wide range of different personal circumstances.
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Labels: home loans, mortgage calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession, US mortgage rates
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 1:33 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Bad Credit Personal Loans for you now
Bad Credit Personal Loans suffering from a bad credit history? Have you been refused credit, or a loan, because of problems in the past?
If you have, or suspect you have been refused credit because of a bad credit history, we can still help you.
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Being refused credit or having a bad credit rating is nothing to be ashamed of and we won't judge you either.
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An unsecured bad credit loan is for people who have had problems in the past, and now have a less than perfect credit rating. An unsecured bad credit loan does not require you to use your property as a guarantee or security for the loan either. As it is unsecured, the loan offers a little more flexibility to the borrower that does not wish to put their home at risk.
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The simple answer is anybody can apply for an unsecured bad credit loan, however in reality before an unsecured bad credit loan application can be processed your age and employment status are taken into consideration.
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If you have, or suspect you have been refused credit because of a bad credit history, we can still help you.
A bad credit history does not mean that you can’t get an unsecured bad credit loan. Every month literally 1000’s of people who have a bad credit history get granted an unsecured bad credit loan by using us.
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Being refused credit or having a bad credit rating is nothing to be ashamed of and we won't judge you either.
We may still be able to arrange an unsecured bad credit loan for you even if you've been turned down or refused credit many times.
A bad credit history is just that, history. So why not fill in our online form today for a free unsecured bad credit loan quotation and perhaps we can turn your bad credit history into a positive result.
What is an unsecured bad credit loan?
An unsecured bad credit loan is for people who have had problems in the past, and now have a less than perfect credit rating. An unsecured bad credit loan does not require you to use your property as a guarantee or security for the loan either. As it is unsecured, the loan offers a little more flexibility to the borrower that does not wish to put their home at risk.
Who are unsecured bad Credit Personal Loans for?
Unsecured bad Credit Personal Loansthe first instance, best suited to those with a bad credit history who do not wish to secure the loan against their property. In the second instance, an unsecured bad credit loan is often the only option for people or tenants who suffer with a bad credit history and have no property to secure the loan against.
Who can apply for an unsecured bad credit loan?
The simple answer is anybody can apply for an unsecured bad credit loan, however in reality before an unsecured bad credit loan application can be processed your age and employment status are taken into consideration.
As long as you are employed and you are over 18, you can apply. Please contact us today for a free no obligation quote.
Please click here now to APPLY NOW online here now
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: home loans, loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:48 AM 0 comments
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Monday, June 22, 2009
Bad Credit Mortgage Refinance available for you now
Bad Credit Mortgage Refinance Home Loans- are you suffering from a poor credit history? Have you been refused credit, or a loan, because of problems in the past?
If you have, or suspect you have been refused credit because of a bad credit history, we can still help. A bad credit history does not mean that you can’t get an unsecured bad credit loan. Every month literally 1000’s of people who have a bad credit history get granted a bad credit loan by using us.
* Bad Credit Mortgage Refinance are available to home owners
* Bad Credit Mortgage Refinance are available from £500 to £25,000
* Bad Credit Mortgage Refinance are available even if you have CCJ's, defaults, or a generally bad credit history.
For UK loans seekers looking for a fast online Loans Calculator APPLY NOW please click here now
For UK mortgage refinance fast online Mortgage Calculator APPLY NOW please click here now
Being refused credit or having a bad credit rating is nothing to be ashamed of and we won't judge you either.
We may still be able to arrange an unsecured Bad Credit Loans for you even if you've been turned down or refused credit many times.
A bad credit history is just that, history. So why not fill in our online form today for a free unsecured bad credit loan quotation and perhaps we can turn your bad credit history into a positive result.
We specialise in helping those previously refused by other companies and high street lenders. Finance for tenants, homeowners, and anybody with bad credit or credit difficulties such as CCJs, defaults or mortgage arrears.
We even arrange loans for the self-employed and those who have difficulty in proving their income.
No matter what you need, experienced and friendly advisors will guide you every step of the way - so your loan application goes ahead quickly, easily and completely hassle free.
What is an unsecured bad credit home loan?
An unsecured bad credit loan is for people who have had problems in the past, and now have a less than perfect credit rating. An unsecured bad credit loan does not require you to use your property as a guarantee or security for the loan either. As it is unsecured, the loan offers a little more flexibility to the borrower that does not wish to put their home at risk.
Who are the loans for?
Unsecured Bad Credit Home Loans are in the first instance, best suited to those with a bad credit history who do not wish to secure the loan against their property. In the second instance, an unsecured bad credit loan is often the only option for people or tenants who suffer with a bad credit history and have no property to secure the loan against.
Who can apply for a loan?
The simple answer is anybody can apply for an unsecured bad credit loan, however in reality before an application can be processed your age and employment status are taken into consideration.
You may need to arrange finance for a new car, a well-deserved holiday, home improvements, to pay school or university fees, or to pay off credit cards or an overdraft.
Your finance can be for any purpose and your application will be processed quickly to ensure your monies are granted as soon as possible. Once your loans are granted you are free to spend the money on anything you wish.
As long as you are employed and you are over 18, you can apply. Please contact us today for a free no obligation quote.
Our lenders provide some of the most competitive finances in the UK. So if you’re looking for a help and you’re a UK resident why not ask for a quote?
At Wise Money we work with a number of different financial services providers. As a result we find that we are able to provide competitive rates and terms for a wide range of different personal circumstances.
You can choose between a secured or an unsecured credit and it can be for any purpose. All we ask is that you can meet the monthly repayments and that you’re a UK resident.
You can expect a prompt and efficient service. An in-principle decision will be made as soon as possible and once your application has been fully processed your money is made available to you as quickly as possible which you are then free to spend as you wish.
Please click here now to APPLY NOW online here now
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
If you have, or suspect you have been refused credit because of a bad credit history, we can still help. A bad credit history does not mean that you can’t get an unsecured bad credit loan. Every month literally 1000’s of people who have a bad credit history get granted a bad credit loan by using us.
* Bad Credit Mortgage Refinance are available to home owners
* Bad Credit Mortgage Refinance are available from £500 to £25,000
* Bad Credit Mortgage Refinance are available even if you have CCJ's, defaults, or a generally bad credit history.
For UK loans seekers looking for a fast online Loans Calculator APPLY NOW please click here now
For UK mortgage refinance fast online Mortgage Calculator APPLY NOW please click here now
Being refused credit or having a bad credit rating is nothing to be ashamed of and we won't judge you either.
We may still be able to arrange an unsecured Bad Credit Loans for you even if you've been turned down or refused credit many times.
A bad credit history is just that, history. So why not fill in our online form today for a free unsecured bad credit loan quotation and perhaps we can turn your bad credit history into a positive result.
We specialise in helping those previously refused by other companies and high street lenders. Finance for tenants, homeowners, and anybody with bad credit or credit difficulties such as CCJs, defaults or mortgage arrears.
We even arrange loans for the self-employed and those who have difficulty in proving their income.
No matter what you need, experienced and friendly advisors will guide you every step of the way - so your loan application goes ahead quickly, easily and completely hassle free.
What is an unsecured bad credit home loan?
An unsecured bad credit loan is for people who have had problems in the past, and now have a less than perfect credit rating. An unsecured bad credit loan does not require you to use your property as a guarantee or security for the loan either. As it is unsecured, the loan offers a little more flexibility to the borrower that does not wish to put their home at risk.
Who are the loans for?
Unsecured Bad Credit Home Loans are in the first instance, best suited to those with a bad credit history who do not wish to secure the loan against their property. In the second instance, an unsecured bad credit loan is often the only option for people or tenants who suffer with a bad credit history and have no property to secure the loan against.
Who can apply for a loan?
The simple answer is anybody can apply for an unsecured bad credit loan, however in reality before an application can be processed your age and employment status are taken into consideration.
You may need to arrange finance for a new car, a well-deserved holiday, home improvements, to pay school or university fees, or to pay off credit cards or an overdraft.
Your finance can be for any purpose and your application will be processed quickly to ensure your monies are granted as soon as possible. Once your loans are granted you are free to spend the money on anything you wish.
As long as you are employed and you are over 18, you can apply. Please contact us today for a free no obligation quote.
Our lenders provide some of the most competitive finances in the UK. So if you’re looking for a help and you’re a UK resident why not ask for a quote?
At Wise Money we work with a number of different financial services providers. As a result we find that we are able to provide competitive rates and terms for a wide range of different personal circumstances.
You can choose between a secured or an unsecured credit and it can be for any purpose. All we ask is that you can meet the monthly repayments and that you’re a UK resident.
You can expect a prompt and efficient service. An in-principle decision will be made as soon as possible and once your application has been fully processed your money is made available to you as quickly as possible which you are then free to spend as you wish.
Please click here now to APPLY NOW online here now
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, home loans, Loan calculator, mortgage calculator, refinancing rates, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:43 AM 0 comments
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Thursday, June 18, 2009
Bad Credit Home Loans at Loans Calculators
Bad Credit Home Loans- are you suffering from a bad credit history? Have you been refused credit, or a loan, because of problems in the past?
If you have, or suspect you have been refused credit because of a bad credit history, we can still help. A bad credit history does not mean that you can’t get an unsecured bad credit loan. Every month literally 1000’s of people who have a bad credit history get granted an unsecured bad credit loan by using us.
* Bad Credit Home Loans are available to all types of tenants
* Bad Credit Home Loans are available to home owners
* Bad Credit Home Loans are available from £500 to £25,000
* Bad Credit Home Loans are available even if you have CCJ's, defaults, or a generally bad credit history.
For UK loans seekers looking for a fast online loans calculator APPLY NOW please click here now
Being refused credit or having a bad credit rating is nothing to be ashamed of and we won't judge you either.
We may still be able to arrange an unsecured Bad Credit Loan for you even if you've been turned down or refused credit many times.
A bad credit history is just that, history. So why not fill in our online form today for a free unsecured bad credit loan quotation and perhaps we can turn your bad credit history into a positive result.
We specialise in helping those previously refused by other companies and high street lenders. Finance for tenants, homeowners, and anybody with bad credit or credit difficulties such as CCJs, defaults or mortgage arrears.
We even arrange loans for the self-employed and those who have difficulty in proving their income.
No matter what you need, experienced and friendly advisors will guide you every step of the way - so your loan application goes ahead quickly, easily and completely hassle free.
What is an unsecured bad credit home loan?
An unsecured bad credit loan is for people who have had problems in the past, and now have a less than perfect credit rating. An unsecured bad credit loan does not require you to use your property as a guarantee or security for the loan either. As it is unsecured, the loan offers a little more flexibility to the borrower that does not wish to put their home at risk.
Who arethe loans for?
Unsecured Bad Credit Home Loans are in the first instance, best suited to those with a bad credit history who do not wish to secure the loan against their property. In the second instance, an unsecured bad credit loan is often the only option for people or tenants who suffer with a bad credit history and have no property to secure the loan against.
Who can apply for a loan?
The simple answer is anybody can apply for an unsecured bad credit loan, however in reality before an application can be processed your age and employment status are taken into consideration.
You may need to arrange finance for a new car, a well-deserved holiday, home improvements, to pay school or university fees, or to pay off credit cards or an overdraft.
Your finance can be for any purpose and your application will be processed quickly to ensure your monies are granted as soon as possible. Once your loans are granted you are free to spend the money on anything you wish.
As long as you are employed and you are over 18, you can apply. Please contact us today for a free no obligation quote.
Our lenders provide some of the most competitive finances in the UK. So if you’re looking for a help and you’re a UK resident why not ask for a quote?
At Wise Money we work with a number of different financial services providers. As a result we find that we are able to provide competitive rates and terms for a wide range of different personal circumstances.
You can choose between a secured or an unsecured credit and it can be for any purpose. All we ask is that you can meet the monthly repayments and that you’re a UK resident.
You can expect a prompt and efficient service. An in-principle decision will be made as soon as possible and once yourapplication has been fully processed your money is made available to you as quickly as possible which you are then free to spend as you wish.
Please click here now to APPLY NOW online here now
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
If you have, or suspect you have been refused credit because of a bad credit history, we can still help. A bad credit history does not mean that you can’t get an unsecured bad credit loan. Every month literally 1000’s of people who have a bad credit history get granted an unsecured bad credit loan by using us.
* Bad Credit Home Loans are available to all types of tenants
* Bad Credit Home Loans are available to home owners
* Bad Credit Home Loans are available from £500 to £25,000
* Bad Credit Home Loans are available even if you have CCJ's, defaults, or a generally bad credit history.
For UK loans seekers looking for a fast online loans calculator APPLY NOW please click here now
Being refused credit or having a bad credit rating is nothing to be ashamed of and we won't judge you either.
We may still be able to arrange an unsecured Bad Credit Loan for you even if you've been turned down or refused credit many times.
A bad credit history is just that, history. So why not fill in our online form today for a free unsecured bad credit loan quotation and perhaps we can turn your bad credit history into a positive result.
We specialise in helping those previously refused by other companies and high street lenders. Finance for tenants, homeowners, and anybody with bad credit or credit difficulties such as CCJs, defaults or mortgage arrears.
We even arrange loans for the self-employed and those who have difficulty in proving their income.
No matter what you need, experienced and friendly advisors will guide you every step of the way - so your loan application goes ahead quickly, easily and completely hassle free.
What is an unsecured bad credit home loan?
An unsecured bad credit loan is for people who have had problems in the past, and now have a less than perfect credit rating. An unsecured bad credit loan does not require you to use your property as a guarantee or security for the loan either. As it is unsecured, the loan offers a little more flexibility to the borrower that does not wish to put their home at risk.
Who arethe loans for?
Unsecured Bad Credit Home Loans are in the first instance, best suited to those with a bad credit history who do not wish to secure the loan against their property. In the second instance, an unsecured bad credit loan is often the only option for people or tenants who suffer with a bad credit history and have no property to secure the loan against.
Who can apply for a loan?
The simple answer is anybody can apply for an unsecured bad credit loan, however in reality before an application can be processed your age and employment status are taken into consideration.
You may need to arrange finance for a new car, a well-deserved holiday, home improvements, to pay school or university fees, or to pay off credit cards or an overdraft.
Your finance can be for any purpose and your application will be processed quickly to ensure your monies are granted as soon as possible. Once your loans are granted you are free to spend the money on anything you wish.
As long as you are employed and you are over 18, you can apply. Please contact us today for a free no obligation quote.
Our lenders provide some of the most competitive finances in the UK. So if you’re looking for a help and you’re a UK resident why not ask for a quote?
At Wise Money we work with a number of different financial services providers. As a result we find that we are able to provide competitive rates and terms for a wide range of different personal circumstances.
You can choose between a secured or an unsecured credit and it can be for any purpose. All we ask is that you can meet the monthly repayments and that you’re a UK resident.
You can expect a prompt and efficient service. An in-principle decision will be made as soon as possible and once yourapplication has been fully processed your money is made available to you as quickly as possible which you are then free to spend as you wish.
Please click here now to APPLY NOW online here now
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, Loan calculator, refinancing rates, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:35 AM 0 comments
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Friday, June 12, 2009
Home loans in trouble as one in ten homeowners fall into negative equity
One in ten homeowners fell into negative equity during the first three months of the year, the highest proportion for 15 years, the Bank of England said today.
The Bank estimated that between 7 and 11 per cent of homeowners with a mortgage owed more to their lender than their property was worth, the equivalent of 700,000 to 1.1 million householders.
Negative equity may have amplified the speed and scale of the recession, the Bank said in its Quarterly Bulletin.
“Large losses on mortgage loans and associated securities can erode banks’ capital positions, affecting both lenders’ willingness and ability to lend and, in extreme cases, their solvency.”
Around 200,000 buy-to-let investors were also estimated to owe more on their mortgage than their property was worth, in a sector particularly battered by the economic downturn.
The research said that the overall number of those in negative equity during the first quarter of 2009 was comparable with those who suffered the problem in the mid-1990s, during the last housing market correction.
The Bank said house prices had fallen by around 20 per cent between the autumn of 2007 and the spring of 2009, the largest nominal fall in property values on record. In contrast, it took six years for house prices to fall by 15 per cent between 1989 and 1995.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The Bank estimated that between 7 and 11 per cent of homeowners with a mortgage owed more to their lender than their property was worth, the equivalent of 700,000 to 1.1 million householders.
Negative equity may have amplified the speed and scale of the recession, the Bank said in its Quarterly Bulletin.
“Large losses on mortgage loans and associated securities can erode banks’ capital positions, affecting both lenders’ willingness and ability to lend and, in extreme cases, their solvency.”
Around 200,000 buy-to-let investors were also estimated to owe more on their mortgage than their property was worth, in a sector particularly battered by the economic downturn.
The research said that the overall number of those in negative equity during the first quarter of 2009 was comparable with those who suffered the problem in the mid-1990s, during the last housing market correction.
The Bank said house prices had fallen by around 20 per cent between the autumn of 2007 and the spring of 2009, the largest nominal fall in property values on record. In contrast, it took six years for house prices to fall by 15 per cent between 1989 and 1995.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, home loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 12:26 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Slow home loans improvement in UK housing market as retail sales slow
The economy has received another shot in the arm with figures showing that the pace of house price falls slowed in May while home sales picked up.
However, retail sales figures have put in question whether April’s jump in consumer demand would be sustained.
About 6 per cent of estate agents across the UK said that property values had risen in May, while 42 per cent said that prices fell, according to figures from the Royal Insitution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The resulting seasonally adjusted balance of -44 is up from -58 in April, suggesting that the pace at which prices are falling is easing. May’s reading was the highest since November 2007.
Buyer inquiries at estate agencies last month rose for the seventh consecutive month in May — at its fastest pace in a decade. There was a jump in sales, with estate agents’ branches reporting an average of 11.8 transactions in the three months to May, up from 10.6 in April.
Agents are also bullish about the outlook, with 40 per cent more expecting sales levels to increase rather than fall in the coming months, the highest figure recorded since the series began in 1998. The figures come days after Halifax said that house prices had risen by 2.6 per cent in May and a majority of City economists forecast that the recession could pause during the summer.
Ian Perry, the RICS spokesman, cautioned against reading too much into the new figures. “On the face of it, the housing market does appear to be close to bottoming out, with activity picking up in a material way and prices at last stabilising.
However, with the economic backdrop still quite uncertain, unemployment set to continue increasing sharply and finance for first-time buyers still in short supply, there are a number of significant obstacles for the market to overcome over the coming months.”
The threat of unemployment has dampened the mood on the high street, with like-for-like sales falling by 0.8 per cent in May after a 4.6 per cent jump in April, according to figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
Food sales slowed, although they picked up late in May as households stocked up on ingredients and implements for barbecues. Sales of clothing and footwear declined compared with strong sales in a very sunny May last year, when consumers splashed out on lighter clothes. However, the 0.8 per cent fall was one of the most modest monthly declines since July last year.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
However, retail sales figures have put in question whether April’s jump in consumer demand would be sustained.
About 6 per cent of estate agents across the UK said that property values had risen in May, while 42 per cent said that prices fell, according to figures from the Royal Insitution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The resulting seasonally adjusted balance of -44 is up from -58 in April, suggesting that the pace at which prices are falling is easing. May’s reading was the highest since November 2007.
Buyer inquiries at estate agencies last month rose for the seventh consecutive month in May — at its fastest pace in a decade. There was a jump in sales, with estate agents’ branches reporting an average of 11.8 transactions in the three months to May, up from 10.6 in April.
Agents are also bullish about the outlook, with 40 per cent more expecting sales levels to increase rather than fall in the coming months, the highest figure recorded since the series began in 1998. The figures come days after Halifax said that house prices had risen by 2.6 per cent in May and a majority of City economists forecast that the recession could pause during the summer.
Ian Perry, the RICS spokesman, cautioned against reading too much into the new figures. “On the face of it, the housing market does appear to be close to bottoming out, with activity picking up in a material way and prices at last stabilising.
However, with the economic backdrop still quite uncertain, unemployment set to continue increasing sharply and finance for first-time buyers still in short supply, there are a number of significant obstacles for the market to overcome over the coming months.”
The threat of unemployment has dampened the mood on the high street, with like-for-like sales falling by 0.8 per cent in May after a 4.6 per cent jump in April, according to figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
Food sales slowed, although they picked up late in May as households stocked up on ingredients and implements for barbecues. Sales of clothing and footwear declined compared with strong sales in a very sunny May last year, when consumers splashed out on lighter clothes. However, the 0.8 per cent fall was one of the most modest monthly declines since July last year.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: home loans, retail sales, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 7:37 PM 1 comments
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Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Loan Calculator warns Britain may suffer a double recession
Britain faces the prospect of two recessions in quick succession.
Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, said that the recent stock market bounce should be treated with caution.
He likened the current sense of optimism to a marital row. “You don't know whether the argument with your wife is really over or not. Is the problem something that your spouse will bring up again, and again?”
The apparent upturn could soon go into reverse, he told The Times, marking a repeat of economic patterns in the 1930s and the 1980s. Such a double-dip slowdown has been nicknamed by economists a “W-shaped” recession, where recovery is so fragile, the country could be plunged into another slowdown as soon as it emerged from the last.
Since March the stock market has rebounded by 27 per cent, raising hopes that the recession may not be as severe and protracted as many economists had feared. Some have interpreted the recent rally as a sign that the banking system - which imploded after Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank, went bust in September - has stabilised and that confidence is returning.
Last week Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, brushed aside doubts that his Budget forecasts had been overoptimistic and predicted that the recession would be over by Christmas. Many economists in the City believe that Britain will stagnate until the end of 2010 and that unemployment will continue to rise well after that.
Speaking to The Times this week, Professor Shiller said: “I was last here [in London] in the fall and there is definitely a sense of optimism now. The Fed [US central bank] and the Bank of England seem to have things under control. Everything seems to be getting better.”
However, he warned that “there is a real possiblity of another recession. We may well see more bad news. It is a real failure of the imagination to think otherwise.”
He said that there were a number of issues that threatened any long-term recovery for the British economy - rising unemployment, mortgage defaults, and another wave of new company failures that “could surprise us yet”.
Professor Shiller also said that the banks were still harbouring large portfolios of troubled assets.
“We all want to lick this problem — there's been a burst of confidence over the last few months, but really it's not based on any news. A lot of people think this recession is coming to an end. But I'm not so sure. A resurgence in confidence may not translate into new jobs. We are still in uncertain times.”
He added: “In 1931 in the US, President Hoover unveiled his recovery plan - there was a huge stock market rally — the market improved but it didn't hold because bad news kept coming in. Increased confidence can be a self-fulfilling prophecy but it doesn't always hold.”
Professor Shiller said, however, that he believed another likely scenario to be one where Britain would face a continuous decline with house prices falling for a number of years, drawing comparisons with the decade of misery in Japan in the 1990s.
The economist became well known when he predicted the timing of the end of the dot-com boom in March 2000, and was one of the first to warn that the US housing market was perilously overvalued and that its collapse would cause devastating reverberations across the world's biggest economy.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Robert Shiller, Professor of Economics at Yale University, said that the recent stock market bounce should be treated with caution.
He likened the current sense of optimism to a marital row. “You don't know whether the argument with your wife is really over or not. Is the problem something that your spouse will bring up again, and again?”
The apparent upturn could soon go into reverse, he told The Times, marking a repeat of economic patterns in the 1930s and the 1980s. Such a double-dip slowdown has been nicknamed by economists a “W-shaped” recession, where recovery is so fragile, the country could be plunged into another slowdown as soon as it emerged from the last.
Since March the stock market has rebounded by 27 per cent, raising hopes that the recession may not be as severe and protracted as many economists had feared. Some have interpreted the recent rally as a sign that the banking system - which imploded after Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank, went bust in September - has stabilised and that confidence is returning.
Last week Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, brushed aside doubts that his Budget forecasts had been overoptimistic and predicted that the recession would be over by Christmas. Many economists in the City believe that Britain will stagnate until the end of 2010 and that unemployment will continue to rise well after that.
Speaking to The Times this week, Professor Shiller said: “I was last here [in London] in the fall and there is definitely a sense of optimism now. The Fed [US central bank] and the Bank of England seem to have things under control. Everything seems to be getting better.”
However, he warned that “there is a real possiblity of another recession. We may well see more bad news. It is a real failure of the imagination to think otherwise.”
He said that there were a number of issues that threatened any long-term recovery for the British economy - rising unemployment, mortgage defaults, and another wave of new company failures that “could surprise us yet”.
Professor Shiller also said that the banks were still harbouring large portfolios of troubled assets.
“We all want to lick this problem — there's been a burst of confidence over the last few months, but really it's not based on any news. A lot of people think this recession is coming to an end. But I'm not so sure. A resurgence in confidence may not translate into new jobs. We are still in uncertain times.”
He added: “In 1931 in the US, President Hoover unveiled his recovery plan - there was a huge stock market rally — the market improved but it didn't hold because bad news kept coming in. Increased confidence can be a self-fulfilling prophecy but it doesn't always hold.”
Professor Shiller said, however, that he believed another likely scenario to be one where Britain would face a continuous decline with house prices falling for a number of years, drawing comparisons with the decade of misery in Japan in the 1990s.
The economist became well known when he predicted the timing of the end of the dot-com boom in March 2000, and was one of the first to warn that the US housing market was perilously overvalued and that its collapse would cause devastating reverberations across the world's biggest economy.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, Loan calculator, sub prime loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:00 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Asian shares founder after North Korean nuclear test
Markets foundered today as the United Nations condemned North Korea's nuclear test and investors awaited more clues about the health of the world economy.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula showed no signs of easing after the UN Security Council criticized North Korea's test of a nuclear bomb as a "clear violation" of international bans. But the country's defiance continued with reports saying it would likely step up its weapons testing by firing short-range missiles this week.
While hurting sentiment in the short term, the standoff was more an excuse to take a breather from the recent rally, analyst said.
Caution ahead of upcoming economic reports in the US, as well as Wall Street and British market holidays Monday, also left investors with few reasons to set a course one way or the other.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average fell 19 points, or 0.2pc, to 9,327.82, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 19.91 points, or 0.1pc, to 17,141.73 in an erratic session.
In South Korea, the Kospi was off 2.4pc at 1,367.02. The benchmark dived over 6pc on Monday on news of North Korea's nuclear test before recovering nearly all its losses.
Elsewhere, Shanghai's index lost 0.1pc, Australia's benchmark was up 1.1pc and Taiwan's market dropped 0.8pc.
Both US and British financial markets were closed Monday for holidays. European markets finished little changed on Monday.
With investors eyeing key US economic reports this week, including home sales, big-ticket manufactured goods and consumer confidence, Wall Street futures pointed to a slightly lower open on Tuesday. Dow futures were down 11, or 0.1pc, at 8,249 and S&P futures fell 0.4, or 0.1pc, to 884.50.
Oil prices fell Asia trade ahead of OPEC's meeting this week, with benchmark crude for July delivery trading at $60.93 a barrel, down 74 cents from overnight trade.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula showed no signs of easing after the UN Security Council criticized North Korea's test of a nuclear bomb as a "clear violation" of international bans. But the country's defiance continued with reports saying it would likely step up its weapons testing by firing short-range missiles this week.
While hurting sentiment in the short term, the standoff was more an excuse to take a breather from the recent rally, analyst said.
Caution ahead of upcoming economic reports in the US, as well as Wall Street and British market holidays Monday, also left investors with few reasons to set a course one way or the other.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average fell 19 points, or 0.2pc, to 9,327.82, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 19.91 points, or 0.1pc, to 17,141.73 in an erratic session.
In South Korea, the Kospi was off 2.4pc at 1,367.02. The benchmark dived over 6pc on Monday on news of North Korea's nuclear test before recovering nearly all its losses.
Elsewhere, Shanghai's index lost 0.1pc, Australia's benchmark was up 1.1pc and Taiwan's market dropped 0.8pc.
Both US and British financial markets were closed Monday for holidays. European markets finished little changed on Monday.
With investors eyeing key US economic reports this week, including home sales, big-ticket manufactured goods and consumer confidence, Wall Street futures pointed to a slightly lower open on Tuesday. Dow futures were down 11, or 0.1pc, at 8,249 and S&P futures fell 0.4, or 0.1pc, to 884.50.
Oil prices fell Asia trade ahead of OPEC's meeting this week, with benchmark crude for July delivery trading at $60.93 a barrel, down 74 cents from overnight trade.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, Oil, sub prime loans, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 1:43 PM 0 comments
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Friday, May 22, 2009
Credit ratings- what a difference an "A" makes
Yesterday we saw incredible volatility in the markets as firstly Standard & Poor’s said it was revising its outlook for Britain’s AAA credit rating from "stable" to negative.
This had a whirlwind effect on the markets with the FTSE falling nearly 3% and sterling tumbling across the markets. Official data showed that the treasury borrowed £8.5 billion last month and the S&P warned that the debt rating would be downgraded if the next governments’ fiscal plans do not show a secure downward trajectory in the medium term.
A downgrade would be a huge blow to the status of Britain and would lead to the Treasury being required to pay higher interest on future borrowings.
The response from the UK government and head of the DMO affirmed "There are significant uncertainties in the global economy at the present time and S&P point out that the outlook could be revised back to stable 'if fiscal outturns are more benign than currently (they) currently anticipate'," – let us hope Mr. Darlings growth forecasts are correct!
In other news data today confirmed that GDP in the UK dropped 1.9% in the first quarter of this year- this was exactly in line with forecasts and has not moved the markets.
Japan has upgraded its economic outlook and is forecasting that exports are forecasted to pick up- this follows a massive fall in exports in Q1 and a 4% fall in output- this should be Yen positive as it underlines the safe haven status of the Yen and will encourage more Yen leveraged carry trades- particularly into AUD.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
This had a whirlwind effect on the markets with the FTSE falling nearly 3% and sterling tumbling across the markets. Official data showed that the treasury borrowed £8.5 billion last month and the S&P warned that the debt rating would be downgraded if the next governments’ fiscal plans do not show a secure downward trajectory in the medium term.
A downgrade would be a huge blow to the status of Britain and would lead to the Treasury being required to pay higher interest on future borrowings.
The response from the UK government and head of the DMO affirmed "There are significant uncertainties in the global economy at the present time and S&P point out that the outlook could be revised back to stable 'if fiscal outturns are more benign than currently (they) currently anticipate'," – let us hope Mr. Darlings growth forecasts are correct!
In other news data today confirmed that GDP in the UK dropped 1.9% in the first quarter of this year- this was exactly in line with forecasts and has not moved the markets.
Japan has upgraded its economic outlook and is forecasting that exports are forecasted to pick up- this follows a massive fall in exports in Q1 and a 4% fall in output- this should be Yen positive as it underlines the safe haven status of the Yen and will encourage more Yen leveraged carry trades- particularly into AUD.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:56 AM 0 comments
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Thursday, May 21, 2009
Taxpayer faces £17.6bn loss on bank investments
The British taxpayer would make a £17.6bn loss if the Government sold out of Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland at today's prices.
The figures, compiled by analysts at Exane BNP Paribas, make even a partial sale of the Government's stake in either bank before a general election next spring look highly unlikely.
The analysts calculated that the state's holding in Lloyds is £10.9bn underwater and £6.7bn out of the money at RBS.
"We continue to view UKFI [the body managing the investments] as a (very) long-term shareholder," Exane's Ian Gordon said. "We assume that the test likely to be applied by UKFI is one of absolute return to (at least) break-even. That could be a long wait."
UKFI has said it expects to sell the stakes piecemeal back to the market as soon as possible. The taxpayer owns 43.4pc of Lloyds, acquired at an average of 124.55p, and 70.3pc of RBS, bought at 51.21p. The stakes rise to 62pc and 95pc respectively once the "B" shares used to pay for the toxic debt insurance scheme are included.
Lloyds shares yesterday fell 6.09 to 70½p after adjusting to take account of its £4bn placing and open offer. RBS, which announced 700 job losses in IT and property yesterday under plans to cut around 20,000 staff globally, fell 0.7 to 42.4p.
Some of the potential losses in Lloyds could be recovered sooner, though, after the lender warned the Government might renegotiate the terms of the asset protection scheme (APS). In the prospectus, the bank said: "Negotiations are continuing and, although not currently expected by the board, may result in changes to the terms announced on March 7."
The Treasury sought to downplay the warning, saying: "The Government is now undertaking a detailed examination of the assets and will announce final details in the coming months. We have not changed our initial assessment of the overall taxpayer exposure."
The prospectus further revealed that European regulators could force Lloyds to unpick its merger with HBOS. In return for state aid approval, the EU may demand "the cessation or disposal of certain parts of the business [that] ... could require the group to divest or exit core businesses".
The £100m the Government will make on the deal comes on top of the £995m in profit the Bank of England has made from its emergency support packages for the financial system, but will have little impact on the billions of potential losses.
Lloyds said converting the preference shares into stock will remove the annual £480m cost of paying dividends on the stock, and "will thereby improve the group's profitability, cashflow, liquidity and organic capital generation".
It will add 0.8 percentage points to its core tier one capital, taking the ratio to 6.7pc before the effect of the APS, which is expected to lift the ratio to 14.5pc.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The figures, compiled by analysts at Exane BNP Paribas, make even a partial sale of the Government's stake in either bank before a general election next spring look highly unlikely.
The analysts calculated that the state's holding in Lloyds is £10.9bn underwater and £6.7bn out of the money at RBS.
"We continue to view UKFI [the body managing the investments] as a (very) long-term shareholder," Exane's Ian Gordon said. "We assume that the test likely to be applied by UKFI is one of absolute return to (at least) break-even. That could be a long wait."
UKFI has said it expects to sell the stakes piecemeal back to the market as soon as possible. The taxpayer owns 43.4pc of Lloyds, acquired at an average of 124.55p, and 70.3pc of RBS, bought at 51.21p. The stakes rise to 62pc and 95pc respectively once the "B" shares used to pay for the toxic debt insurance scheme are included.
Lloyds shares yesterday fell 6.09 to 70½p after adjusting to take account of its £4bn placing and open offer. RBS, which announced 700 job losses in IT and property yesterday under plans to cut around 20,000 staff globally, fell 0.7 to 42.4p.
Some of the potential losses in Lloyds could be recovered sooner, though, after the lender warned the Government might renegotiate the terms of the asset protection scheme (APS). In the prospectus, the bank said: "Negotiations are continuing and, although not currently expected by the board, may result in changes to the terms announced on March 7."
The Treasury sought to downplay the warning, saying: "The Government is now undertaking a detailed examination of the assets and will announce final details in the coming months. We have not changed our initial assessment of the overall taxpayer exposure."
The prospectus further revealed that European regulators could force Lloyds to unpick its merger with HBOS. In return for state aid approval, the EU may demand "the cessation or disposal of certain parts of the business [that] ... could require the group to divest or exit core businesses".
The £100m the Government will make on the deal comes on top of the £995m in profit the Bank of England has made from its emergency support packages for the financial system, but will have little impact on the billions of potential losses.
Lloyds said converting the preference shares into stock will remove the annual £480m cost of paying dividends on the stock, and "will thereby improve the group's profitability, cashflow, liquidity and organic capital generation".
It will add 0.8 percentage points to its core tier one capital, taking the ratio to 6.7pc before the effect of the APS, which is expected to lift the ratio to 14.5pc.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:19 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Loan Calculator sees feel good factor returns
Overnight the UK government has hinted it may look to sell a portion of the debt it has taken on in the nationalised UK banking sector.
Over in the US the feel good factor continues as the Treasury Secretary Geithner adds to the Growing Belief that we have turned the corner.
This, added to bullish global economic data and further comments from the US gave the Stock Markets a real boost, pushed the oil price up above $60 per barrel again.
Positive data included a rise in Japanese consumer confidence and better than expected export figures from the EU. We then got ‘reasonable' numbers from the US including strong trading performance from Lowes, a major company whose business is directly related to the house building industry.
Financial stocks added to the positive sentiment following news that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan had applied to the Treasury for permission to repay their TARP borrowings.
So all round the feel good factor has returned- but will this translate into a solid global recovery?
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Over in the US the feel good factor continues as the Treasury Secretary Geithner adds to the Growing Belief that we have turned the corner.
This, added to bullish global economic data and further comments from the US gave the Stock Markets a real boost, pushed the oil price up above $60 per barrel again.
Positive data included a rise in Japanese consumer confidence and better than expected export figures from the EU. We then got ‘reasonable' numbers from the US including strong trading performance from Lowes, a major company whose business is directly related to the house building industry.
Financial stocks added to the positive sentiment following news that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan had applied to the Treasury for permission to repay their TARP borrowings.
So all round the feel good factor has returned- but will this translate into a solid global recovery?
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, Loan calculator, Oil, sub, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:41 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Bank of England makes £1bn profit from bailouts
The Bank of England revealed yesterday that it had racked up record profits of almost £1 billion in the year to February.
During a crisis that has brought some of the mightiest forces in global banking to their knees — and some to collapse and oblivion — the Bank emerged as having thrived while famed commercial institutions foundered.
Figures released yesterday in the Bank's annual report showed that in the 12 months to February 28 it raked in profits before tax of £995 million. This marks a more than fivefold rise from £197 million in 2008 and is the biggest figure since its establishment in 1694.
The profits surge for the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street has already paid a big dividend for taxpayers. The Bank made an initial payment to the Treasury of £203 million on April 3 and a further, similar sum is set to follow in October under rules that require the Bank to hand back a quarter of its post-tax profits to the Government on two dates each year.
The Bank's soaring profits have come as a direct result of its massive interventions to shore up Britain's banking system, as it has levied fees and interest on stricken high-street and commercial banks in return for the financial lifelines that have seen them through the financial storm.
“The Bank's profit is a consequence of policy decisions to tackle the financial crisis,” a spokesman said last night after its report was handed to Parliament.
“The Bank has provided substantial liquidity support to the banking system. It is entirely right it charges fees to set the right incentives for financial institutions to use its facilities and protects itself and taxpayers from potential credit risk.”
Yesterday's report showed that included in the year's bumper profits for the Bank were £7 million earned through its support for the collapsed Bradford & Bingley and a further £4 million from its backing for the failed Northern Rock.
The Bank has also earned large amounts from the £185 billion loaned to banking groups in the form of Treasury bills, under its Special Liquidity Scheme (SLS). In the year to February 28, it booked £664 million in profits related to the SLS, according to its accounts. As security for its loaned funds, the Bank continues to hold £287 billion-worth of hard-to-trade, illiquid assets that it swapped under the scheme.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
During a crisis that has brought some of the mightiest forces in global banking to their knees — and some to collapse and oblivion — the Bank emerged as having thrived while famed commercial institutions foundered.
Figures released yesterday in the Bank's annual report showed that in the 12 months to February 28 it raked in profits before tax of £995 million. This marks a more than fivefold rise from £197 million in 2008 and is the biggest figure since its establishment in 1694.
The profits surge for the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street has already paid a big dividend for taxpayers. The Bank made an initial payment to the Treasury of £203 million on April 3 and a further, similar sum is set to follow in October under rules that require the Bank to hand back a quarter of its post-tax profits to the Government on two dates each year.
The Bank's soaring profits have come as a direct result of its massive interventions to shore up Britain's banking system, as it has levied fees and interest on stricken high-street and commercial banks in return for the financial lifelines that have seen them through the financial storm.
“The Bank's profit is a consequence of policy decisions to tackle the financial crisis,” a spokesman said last night after its report was handed to Parliament.
“The Bank has provided substantial liquidity support to the banking system. It is entirely right it charges fees to set the right incentives for financial institutions to use its facilities and protects itself and taxpayers from potential credit risk.”
Yesterday's report showed that included in the year's bumper profits for the Bank were £7 million earned through its support for the collapsed Bradford & Bingley and a further £4 million from its backing for the failed Northern Rock.
The Bank has also earned large amounts from the £185 billion loaned to banking groups in the form of Treasury bills, under its Special Liquidity Scheme (SLS). In the year to February 28, it booked £664 million in profits related to the SLS, according to its accounts. As security for its loaned funds, the Bank continues to hold £287 billion-worth of hard-to-trade, illiquid assets that it swapped under the scheme.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:10 AM 0 comments
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Monday, May 18, 2009
Investors doubt that this bull market has legs
It was only a fortnight ago that investors were buzzing with enthusiasm and dreaming of a bull market.
Stockbrokers were reporting a sharp rise in trading volumes as private investors rushed to join in the stock market renaissance.
The great and the good were confident enough to announce that the bull market had indeed come. As I wrote, one such bull was Anthony Bolton, the highly regarded Fidelity fund manager, who correctly called the end of the commodity bull market last year.
But an eagle eyed reader pointed out to me that Mr Bolton had not always made the right call. When he switched out of commodity stocks he invested in "banking groups which have already had their rights issues" instead. But bank shares went on to fall sharply.
Doubts are being raised as to whether this is the bull market we had been hoping for. Certainly the FTSE 100 has struggled to get into top gear since and although the wheels haven't come off, it has run out of gas.
London's index of leading shares may have jumped 25pc since hitting a low of 3,512 points on March 3, but it closed the week down at 4,348 – its first weekly decline for several weeks.
The stock market chartists also suggest that it is a tad early to call time on the bear market.
Take the Coppock Indicator, which aims to identify the start of a bull market. The Coppock indicator signalled rallies in 1988 and 1994, and investors who acted on it made a lot of money (although it gave a false signal back in the early stages of the dotcom bust).
It was first developed more than 40 years ago when church authorities asked Edwin Coppock, a business economist, for a low-risk, long-term signal for use on the Dow. Coppock believed that, in the markets, collective emotion outweighed collective reason and investors panic-sold to avoid losses.
He asked the bishops how long it took to recover from bereavement or similar trauma. They said between 11 and 14 months, so using the Coppock Breadth Indicator he would judge the momentum of the markets based on the average of their 11- and 14-month rates of change.
The confirmation or buy signal comes when the indicator is below zero and turning upwards from a trough.
Loans Calculator points out that the indicator has yet to provide a buy signal. We warns that it is too early to shout "Yippee, the bear market's over."
The dividend cut by BT, not to mention its redundancies, reminds us that troubles run deep in corporate Britain. And given the cautious overtones in the latest Bank of England quarterly inflation report you can understand that the majority of investors remain sceptical that this bull market has legs.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Stockbrokers were reporting a sharp rise in trading volumes as private investors rushed to join in the stock market renaissance.
The great and the good were confident enough to announce that the bull market had indeed come. As I wrote, one such bull was Anthony Bolton, the highly regarded Fidelity fund manager, who correctly called the end of the commodity bull market last year.
But an eagle eyed reader pointed out to me that Mr Bolton had not always made the right call. When he switched out of commodity stocks he invested in "banking groups which have already had their rights issues" instead. But bank shares went on to fall sharply.
Doubts are being raised as to whether this is the bull market we had been hoping for. Certainly the FTSE 100 has struggled to get into top gear since and although the wheels haven't come off, it has run out of gas.
London's index of leading shares may have jumped 25pc since hitting a low of 3,512 points on March 3, but it closed the week down at 4,348 – its first weekly decline for several weeks.
The stock market chartists also suggest that it is a tad early to call time on the bear market.
Take the Coppock Indicator, which aims to identify the start of a bull market. The Coppock indicator signalled rallies in 1988 and 1994, and investors who acted on it made a lot of money (although it gave a false signal back in the early stages of the dotcom bust).
It was first developed more than 40 years ago when church authorities asked Edwin Coppock, a business economist, for a low-risk, long-term signal for use on the Dow. Coppock believed that, in the markets, collective emotion outweighed collective reason and investors panic-sold to avoid losses.
He asked the bishops how long it took to recover from bereavement or similar trauma. They said between 11 and 14 months, so using the Coppock Breadth Indicator he would judge the momentum of the markets based on the average of their 11- and 14-month rates of change.
The confirmation or buy signal comes when the indicator is below zero and turning upwards from a trough.
Loans Calculator points out that the indicator has yet to provide a buy signal. We warns that it is too early to shout "Yippee, the bear market's over."
The dividend cut by BT, not to mention its redundancies, reminds us that troubles run deep in corporate Britain. And given the cautious overtones in the latest Bank of England quarterly inflation report you can understand that the majority of investors remain sceptical that this bull market has legs.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, Loan calculator, recession, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 1:27 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, May 14, 2009
Green shoots data trampled by Mervyn King
The UK's Quarterly inflation report by the Bank Of England emphasising a slow and uncertain recovery.
The inflation report is the first since the introduction of QE in March and the report was eagerly awaited to assess the inflation projections in the UK. Mr King was downbeat in his assessment of the UK economy and emphasized the uncertainty in the economy stating "it would be extremely unwise for anyone to claim they know what the future is to hold" and he also intimated that there would be no end to credit easing and interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future.
So not particularly cheery from Mr King and this certainly takes the shine off yesterdays "green shoot" declarations from various economic pundits for the UK- in fairness a conservative approach is sensible to avoid the market trading on sentiment rather than reality.
In other data from the UK we saw unemployment jump to its highest level since 1996 in a leaked report yesterday afternoon….the number of UK unemployed jumped by almost a quarter of a million in the first 3 months of the year taking the total levels to 2.2 million.
However manufacturing production fell by just 0.1% compared to expectations of a drop nearer to 1%- continued improvement in manufacturing production will be essential to drive growth and stop the rot of unemployment levels surging higher still…
Elsewhere, we saw China post a higher than forecast retail sales number but lower industrial output data….good news that the Chinese consumer is buying but they will hope to see an improvement in output soon. .
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The inflation report is the first since the introduction of QE in March and the report was eagerly awaited to assess the inflation projections in the UK. Mr King was downbeat in his assessment of the UK economy and emphasized the uncertainty in the economy stating "it would be extremely unwise for anyone to claim they know what the future is to hold" and he also intimated that there would be no end to credit easing and interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future.
So not particularly cheery from Mr King and this certainly takes the shine off yesterdays "green shoot" declarations from various economic pundits for the UK- in fairness a conservative approach is sensible to avoid the market trading on sentiment rather than reality.
In other data from the UK we saw unemployment jump to its highest level since 1996 in a leaked report yesterday afternoon….the number of UK unemployed jumped by almost a quarter of a million in the first 3 months of the year taking the total levels to 2.2 million.
However manufacturing production fell by just 0.1% compared to expectations of a drop nearer to 1%- continued improvement in manufacturing production will be essential to drive growth and stop the rot of unemployment levels surging higher still…
Elsewhere, we saw China post a higher than forecast retail sales number but lower industrial output data….good news that the Chinese consumer is buying but they will hope to see an improvement in output soon. .
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, Quantitative Easing, uk recession, unemployment
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:31 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Bout of profit taking snaps the equity rally
As feared yesterday we witnessed a sharp bout of profit taking in the equity markets as investors took the opportunity to lock in their profits after a 5% rally last week.
The move may have been catalysed by the fact that several large US banks were looking to use common equity issuance to raise funds in order to repay borrowings from the Government.
In addition Ben Bernanke then seemed to put a short term top on the market surge by focusing on the dangers of inflation and the timing of an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. HSBC also released results that although in line with expectations, failed to impress the markets.
In late afternoon the equity markets did stage a slight recovery and this demonstrates good underlying sentiment which could lead to further gains going forward in equities.
This view was echoed by Mr Soros who stated that "the economic freefall had been stopped", in fact there was a plethora of declarations of recovery yesterday…Deutsche Banks George Buckley indicated that the UK output could grow again by June.
In addition the Organisation For Economic Cop-operation and Development (OECD) said Britain was one of the countries showing "tentative signs" of a pause in the pace of decline - the OECD generally has a good record of identifying turning points.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The move may have been catalysed by the fact that several large US banks were looking to use common equity issuance to raise funds in order to repay borrowings from the Government.
In addition Ben Bernanke then seemed to put a short term top on the market surge by focusing on the dangers of inflation and the timing of an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. HSBC also released results that although in line with expectations, failed to impress the markets.
In late afternoon the equity markets did stage a slight recovery and this demonstrates good underlying sentiment which could lead to further gains going forward in equities.
This view was echoed by Mr Soros who stated that "the economic freefall had been stopped", in fact there was a plethora of declarations of recovery yesterday…Deutsche Banks George Buckley indicated that the UK output could grow again by June.
In addition the Organisation For Economic Cop-operation and Development (OECD) said Britain was one of the countries showing "tentative signs" of a pause in the pace of decline - the OECD generally has a good record of identifying turning points.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bernanke, FED, inflation, OECD, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:41 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Labour Ministers 'to blame' for financial crisis
The Labour government and central bankers must take the blame for the financial crisis - not bankers, investors and others in the market, according to a new study.
The Bank of England has a whole variety of counter-cyclical policies it could have used to avert the crisis, say economists.
In a comprehensive analysis of the causes for the financial and economic crisis, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) has concluded that the disaster was caused by authorities' mistakes rather than market failures.
In an associated letter to The Daily Telegraph, the IEA, supported by a number of leading economists, including Tim Congdon and John Kay, said that despite these failures regulators were being rewarded with more responsibilities.
The study suggests that hedge funds and tax havens should not be unduly punished, and that in the future central banks and regulators should pay greater attention to imbalances building up in the economy.
The detailed analysis, Verdict on the Crash, will come as a further blow for Gordon Brown, claiming that the system he created to monitor the financial and economic system was found entirely wanting and is in need of a major overhaul.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The Bank of England has a whole variety of counter-cyclical policies it could have used to avert the crisis, say economists.
In a comprehensive analysis of the causes for the financial and economic crisis, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) has concluded that the disaster was caused by authorities' mistakes rather than market failures.
In an associated letter to The Daily Telegraph, the IEA, supported by a number of leading economists, including Tim Congdon and John Kay, said that despite these failures regulators were being rewarded with more responsibilities.
The study suggests that hedge funds and tax havens should not be unduly punished, and that in the future central banks and regulators should pay greater attention to imbalances building up in the economy.
The detailed analysis, Verdict on the Crash, will come as a further blow for Gordon Brown, claiming that the system he created to monitor the financial and economic system was found entirely wanting and is in need of a major overhaul.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, labour liars, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:32 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Loans markets remain mixed
Lets start with the good news- UK PMI has risen to 42.9 in April from 39.5 in March, above market expectations of a reading around 40.5.
Also in the UK- net consumer lending has been released to have hit its lowest level on record in March, totalling GBP0.9 billion, from 1.5 billion in Feb.
Yesterday's US data was a little mixed which was reflected in the Dollar's performance. The afternoon ended on a high note with the release of a much better than expected Chicago PMI index which showed that new orders were at their highest level for 6-months.
Following a running down of inventories there is showing a need for re-stocking but one must assume that this purchasing would not occur unless there was strong optimism that demand was returning. This bodes well for this afternoon's US ISM result.
The ISM survey is good at reflecting turning points in economic direction and once the indicator picks up, it typically continues to climb steadily. Given this pattern and added to the strength seen in recent regional surveys, the market is looking for a rise to 38.2 from last month's 36.3.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Also in the UK- net consumer lending has been released to have hit its lowest level on record in March, totalling GBP0.9 billion, from 1.5 billion in Feb.
Yesterday's US data was a little mixed which was reflected in the Dollar's performance. The afternoon ended on a high note with the release of a much better than expected Chicago PMI index which showed that new orders were at their highest level for 6-months.
Following a running down of inventories there is showing a need for re-stocking but one must assume that this purchasing would not occur unless there was strong optimism that demand was returning. This bodes well for this afternoon's US ISM result.
The ISM survey is good at reflecting turning points in economic direction and once the indicator picks up, it typically continues to climb steadily. Given this pattern and added to the strength seen in recent regional surveys, the market is looking for a rise to 38.2 from last month's 36.3.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:07 AM 0 comments
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Thursday, April 30, 2009
Flu pandemic could wipe 7pc off UK economy, warns Bank of England
A flu pandemic could wipe more than 7pc off Britain's economic output, and trigger the worst recession since the early 1920s, according to Bank of England calculations.
Not only would it cause a permanent dent in Britain's economic growth, it would see such significant losses to banks that it could trigger further bank nationalisations. It could also be a fatal blow for insurance groups.
However, Bank insiders said that with the financial crisis having already struck the economic and banking system, some of the hit to activity may already have been absorbed by markets and consumers.
They also cautioned that such projections were unreliable since they assume that the pandemic will be severe – certainly more severe than the current consensus estimates of the impact from swine flu.
However, other analysts have warned that the impact would be even more fierce coming at a point when the economy and banking sector are already so fragile.
The figures come from an exercise originally carried out by the Bank before the financial crisis two years ago. Fearing that a pandemic related to avian flu was one of the possible risks for the City, the Bank and Treasury carried out an unprecedented simulation with banks and firms.
The projections are based on 25pc of the population falling ill as the pandemic attacks the UK in two waves, in line with the Department of Health's planning assumptions, which still stand. But they were also made at a time when banks' balance sheets were particularly fat, so they may exaggerate the scale of the decline.
The exercise concluded: "The most immediate effect would be financial market turbulence, as investors assessed the potential economic impact. Growing absenteeism could affect operations at major financial institutions and infrastructure providers. Over time, credit losses for UK banks could increase as a contraction in activity, both domestically and abroad, leads to financial distress among households and companies. Banks' incomes would also fall as a result of lower lending volumes and financial market activity.
"There are obviously enormous uncertainties around quantifying the potential impact of such a scenario. But in an illustrative calibration of a severe pandemic, losses to major UK banks could be equivalent to around 30pc–50pc of their tier-1 capital."
Given that banks have already suffered a hit of unprecedented proportions, the dent from a pandemic, although it may be smaller, could be fatal for Britain's remaining independent banks.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Not only would it cause a permanent dent in Britain's economic growth, it would see such significant losses to banks that it could trigger further bank nationalisations. It could also be a fatal blow for insurance groups.
However, Bank insiders said that with the financial crisis having already struck the economic and banking system, some of the hit to activity may already have been absorbed by markets and consumers.
They also cautioned that such projections were unreliable since they assume that the pandemic will be severe – certainly more severe than the current consensus estimates of the impact from swine flu.
However, other analysts have warned that the impact would be even more fierce coming at a point when the economy and banking sector are already so fragile.
The figures come from an exercise originally carried out by the Bank before the financial crisis two years ago. Fearing that a pandemic related to avian flu was one of the possible risks for the City, the Bank and Treasury carried out an unprecedented simulation with banks and firms.
The projections are based on 25pc of the population falling ill as the pandemic attacks the UK in two waves, in line with the Department of Health's planning assumptions, which still stand. But they were also made at a time when banks' balance sheets were particularly fat, so they may exaggerate the scale of the decline.
The exercise concluded: "The most immediate effect would be financial market turbulence, as investors assessed the potential economic impact. Growing absenteeism could affect operations at major financial institutions and infrastructure providers. Over time, credit losses for UK banks could increase as a contraction in activity, both domestically and abroad, leads to financial distress among households and companies. Banks' incomes would also fall as a result of lower lending volumes and financial market activity.
"There are obviously enormous uncertainties around quantifying the potential impact of such a scenario. But in an illustrative calibration of a severe pandemic, losses to major UK banks could be equivalent to around 30pc–50pc of their tier-1 capital."
Given that banks have already suffered a hit of unprecedented proportions, the dent from a pandemic, although it may be smaller, could be fatal for Britain's remaining independent banks.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:39 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Bank of England interest rate setter Kate Barker says banks right to be cautious
Kate Barker, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member, was quoted today as saying it was right for banks to be cautious about lending in the face of rising unemployment and housing repossessions.
In comments to a panel discussion on April 20, extracts of which were published on the "Mortgage Introducer" industry website, Ms Barker's future colleague, David Miles, due to join the MPC in June, said banks should also be required to hold more capital.
"Once the dust settles, it will be sensible for institutions to have substantially more capital than was thought necessary before the credit crunch," Mr Miles was quoted as saying.
Ms Barker was quoted as saying that lenders "are right to be extra careful today in light of future uncertainties, with unemployment and repossessions continuing to rise".
UK house prices have lost a fifth of their value in little more than a year as the credit crunch prompted banks to cut back on lending.
BoE policymakers have said restrictive lending practices pose the greatest threat to an economic recovery in Britain.
But borrowing costs for households and businesses are still high even though the central bank has slashed official interest rates to a record low of 0.5pc and started buying assets to get cash flowing around the economy.
A sharp slowdown in the economy and rising unemployment are also making people more reluctant to take on debt.
Barker also said the government should be flexible in its house-building targets, saying they looked very difficult to meet.
"The existing target of 240,000 new homes per year by 2016 is difficult, if not impossible, to meet," she said.
"When the housing industry was booming, we still only achieved 200,000 new homes in one year, which raises the prospect of prices rising sharply again in the future."
Mr Miles said the banks' unwillingness to offer high loan to value ratios in mortgages for first-time buyers would mean people would get onto the home-ownership ladder later in life.
"Reduced loan-to-values will bring about an increase in the age of the average first-time buyer, as we return to a culture of saving for deposits," he was quoted as saying.
He said this would probably mean the private rental sector would need to expand through private buy-to-let landlords or professional investors.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
In comments to a panel discussion on April 20, extracts of which were published on the "Mortgage Introducer" industry website, Ms Barker's future colleague, David Miles, due to join the MPC in June, said banks should also be required to hold more capital.
"Once the dust settles, it will be sensible for institutions to have substantially more capital than was thought necessary before the credit crunch," Mr Miles was quoted as saying.
Ms Barker was quoted as saying that lenders "are right to be extra careful today in light of future uncertainties, with unemployment and repossessions continuing to rise".
UK house prices have lost a fifth of their value in little more than a year as the credit crunch prompted banks to cut back on lending.
BoE policymakers have said restrictive lending practices pose the greatest threat to an economic recovery in Britain.
But borrowing costs for households and businesses are still high even though the central bank has slashed official interest rates to a record low of 0.5pc and started buying assets to get cash flowing around the economy.
A sharp slowdown in the economy and rising unemployment are also making people more reluctant to take on debt.
Barker also said the government should be flexible in its house-building targets, saying they looked very difficult to meet.
"The existing target of 240,000 new homes per year by 2016 is difficult, if not impossible, to meet," she said.
"When the housing industry was booming, we still only achieved 200,000 new homes in one year, which raises the prospect of prices rising sharply again in the future."
Mr Miles said the banks' unwillingness to offer high loan to value ratios in mortgages for first-time buyers would mean people would get onto the home-ownership ladder later in life.
"Reduced loan-to-values will bring about an increase in the age of the average first-time buyer, as we return to a culture of saving for deposits," he was quoted as saying.
He said this would probably mean the private rental sector would need to expand through private buy-to-let landlords or professional investors.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: home loans, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession, unemployment
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 12:19 PM 0 comments
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Monday, April 27, 2009
Swine flu fears may hit airline, hotel shares
Travel and hotel groups are braced for a turbulent ride today as the markets react to fears over the strain of swine flu that was reported to have killed up to 71 people and closed much of public life in Mexico at the weekend.
Analysts said that the news would revive memories of the 2002-03 severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak.
Although the disease, first noticed in southern China in November 2002, was short-lived, it caused the deaths of 774 people worldwide and had a devastating impact on the Asian economy particularly in Hong Kong and on the shares of many international companies with an economic interest in the Far East.
In Asia, dealers said that any sell off was likely to be in airline and travel related stocks until more was known of the extent of the danger posed by the disease and its probable impact on global trade.
One dealer said that markets were likely to reassess their stance if more countries followed Russia’s decision yesterday to ban meat imports from Mexico, some parts of the United States and several South American countries.
Fund managers played down the risks of a swine flu-related sell-off, saying that Asian markets were used to the threat of potential health scares and were more cautious about moving too soon after reports of new disease strains.
Weekend reports in Tokyo suggested, however, that two of Japan’s biggest travel agencies had cancelled package tours to Mexico before Japan’s “Golden Week” holiday season, which begins on Wednesday.
Viewed by travel agents and airlines as the most lucrative seven days of the Japanese year, Golden Week travel activities by the Japanese are critical to many destinations that rely heavily on tourism income.
The mass cancellation of flights to Mexico will be a heavy blow to airlines, though travel agents said that it would be far more significant if Japanese holidaymakers cancelled flights to America as well.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Analysts said that the news would revive memories of the 2002-03 severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak.
Although the disease, first noticed in southern China in November 2002, was short-lived, it caused the deaths of 774 people worldwide and had a devastating impact on the Asian economy particularly in Hong Kong and on the shares of many international companies with an economic interest in the Far East.
In Asia, dealers said that any sell off was likely to be in airline and travel related stocks until more was known of the extent of the danger posed by the disease and its probable impact on global trade.
One dealer said that markets were likely to reassess their stance if more countries followed Russia’s decision yesterday to ban meat imports from Mexico, some parts of the United States and several South American countries.
Fund managers played down the risks of a swine flu-related sell-off, saying that Asian markets were used to the threat of potential health scares and were more cautious about moving too soon after reports of new disease strains.
Weekend reports in Tokyo suggested, however, that two of Japan’s biggest travel agencies had cancelled package tours to Mexico before Japan’s “Golden Week” holiday season, which begins on Wednesday.
Viewed by travel agents and airlines as the most lucrative seven days of the Japanese year, Golden Week travel activities by the Japanese are critical to many destinations that rely heavily on tourism income.
The mass cancellation of flights to Mexico will be a heavy blow to airlines, though travel agents said that it would be far more significant if Japanese holidaymakers cancelled flights to America as well.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of Japan, credit crunch, recession, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:21 AM 0 comments
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Friday, April 24, 2009
Budget 2009- Britain's debt will not be under control until 2032
The unprecedented burden of public debt built up by Gordon Brown will not be brought under control for nearly a quarter of a century, economists have said.
”Debt freedom day”, when the national debt returns to sustainable levels, will not be reached until 2032 - another 23 years away, the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies said.
Families could soon find themselves paying at least another £1,400 a year in tax as part of the Government’s attempts to bring public debt back under control, the IFS predicted.
It said there was a gap between the amount of money that would be raised by the tax measures in this week’s Budget and the amount the Government will need to fund its spending plans.
This secret “blackhole” could end up adding another £1,430 each year to the average families’ tax bill, it said.
The stark warning of a generation of austerity ahead came as Alistair Darling admitted he could not be sure his optimistic forecasts for a quick economic recovery would be realised.
“It is very difficult to be absolutely certain as to what will happen,” he admitted.
The Chancellor’s predictions for growth to resume by the end of this year and to reach boom levels again by 2011 have been widely questioned, with the International Monetary Fund suggesting the British economy would actually shrink next year - despite Mr Darling’s forecast of modest growth. “The crisis is far from over,” it said.
The IFS warned that despite the tax rises and spending cuts announced in the Budget this week, future chancellors would be forced to raise even more money to fill a “breathtaking” long-term hole in the public finances.
The scale of the problem is so great that even with years of tax rises and spending cuts, the national debt will not be low enough to meet Gordon Brown’s now-abandoned “sustainable investment rule” until 2032. This “golden rule” dictated that Government debt should not rise above 40 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In the Budget however, Mr Darling said he would borrow another £700 billion over the next five years, pushing the accumulated stock of Government debt to £1.4 trillion, equal to almost 80 per cent gross domestic product.
The golden rule on borrowing, which Mr Brown actually announced when he was Chancellor, has been “temporarily suspended” as the UK economy endures the worst recession for 60 years.
Mr Darling has set out plans for debt to peak at 76.2 per cent of GDP in 2013/14. Paying the interest on that debt could cost as much as £58 billion a year by then, more than annual spending on schools in England.
Bringing the debt back to the level Mr Brown once said was necessary for economic stability will take another 23 years, according to Carl Emmerson, an IFS economist. “Public debt will remain high for a generation,” he said.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
”Debt freedom day”, when the national debt returns to sustainable levels, will not be reached until 2032 - another 23 years away, the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies said.
Families could soon find themselves paying at least another £1,400 a year in tax as part of the Government’s attempts to bring public debt back under control, the IFS predicted.
It said there was a gap between the amount of money that would be raised by the tax measures in this week’s Budget and the amount the Government will need to fund its spending plans.
This secret “blackhole” could end up adding another £1,430 each year to the average families’ tax bill, it said.
The stark warning of a generation of austerity ahead came as Alistair Darling admitted he could not be sure his optimistic forecasts for a quick economic recovery would be realised.
“It is very difficult to be absolutely certain as to what will happen,” he admitted.
The Chancellor’s predictions for growth to resume by the end of this year and to reach boom levels again by 2011 have been widely questioned, with the International Monetary Fund suggesting the British economy would actually shrink next year - despite Mr Darling’s forecast of modest growth. “The crisis is far from over,” it said.
The IFS warned that despite the tax rises and spending cuts announced in the Budget this week, future chancellors would be forced to raise even more money to fill a “breathtaking” long-term hole in the public finances.
The scale of the problem is so great that even with years of tax rises and spending cuts, the national debt will not be low enough to meet Gordon Brown’s now-abandoned “sustainable investment rule” until 2032. This “golden rule” dictated that Government debt should not rise above 40 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In the Budget however, Mr Darling said he would borrow another £700 billion over the next five years, pushing the accumulated stock of Government debt to £1.4 trillion, equal to almost 80 per cent gross domestic product.
The golden rule on borrowing, which Mr Brown actually announced when he was Chancellor, has been “temporarily suspended” as the UK economy endures the worst recession for 60 years.
Mr Darling has set out plans for debt to peak at 76.2 per cent of GDP in 2013/14. Paying the interest on that debt could cost as much as £58 billion a year by then, more than annual spending on schools in England.
Bringing the debt back to the level Mr Brown once said was necessary for economic stability will take another 23 years, according to Carl Emmerson, an IFS economist. “Public debt will remain high for a generation,” he said.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, labour liars, Loan calculator, loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:29 AM 0 comments
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Thursday, April 23, 2009
Alistair Darling's Budget derided as 'fantasy'
Alistair Darling's 2009 Budget has been derided as a stew of unrealistic forecasts and missed opportunities, after the labour Chancellor conceded the current slump is comparable with the Great Depression but insisted it would be over by Christmas.
Mr Darling cemented his reputation as the Chancellor with the worst forecasting record in modern history after he slashed his projection for British economic output this year to -3.5pc.
Unveiling the biggest increase in government borrowing since the Second World War, he conceded that Britain's national debt will double to around £1.2 trillion in the coming years, and that the budget would not return to balance until 2018 or later.
In what economists described as a "fantasy Budget", Mr Darling imposed swingeing new taxes on those who earn more than £150,000, which will raise as much as £5.5bn a year by 2012 – one of the biggest per-capita tax increases in recent history.
But while he will try to trim some departmental budgets, he will nevertheless increase the total amount the labour Government will spend this year and the next by £37.6bn. This indicates that if he does intend to balance the nation's books, he will do so not with spending cuts but with tax rises.
However, the proposed tax and spending measures pale into insignificance against the scale and extent of the economic and fiscal crunch mapped out in the Budget small print.
The documentation reveals that this year's economic contraction will be the worst in any year since the end of the Second World War. Indeed, according to the International Monetary Fund, this year is likely to be the worst since the 1930s, as countries around the world slump into a synchronised slowdown.
The Chancellor predicted that despite shrinking by 3.5pc this year, the UK economy would start growing again "towards the end of the year", with 1.25pc growth next year and 3.5pc from 2011 onwards. Last night economic historians were trying in vain to find examples of developed countries that had stomached so significant a one-off drop in growth and yet managed to recover within 12 months.
As the IMF pointed out last week, recessions associated with financial crises tend to be more protracted and virulent than almost any other type, and that is precisely what the UK faces.
Indeed, alongside many City economists, the IMF expects the UK economy to shrink by a further 0.4pc next year – significantly below even the Chancellor's revised forecasts.
Dig a little deeper into the Budget and it becomes clear that the Treasury expects nothing short of a full-scale consumer recovery – if not boom – in order to satisfy its projections. Such a prospect seems unrealistic if not outlandish, according to City experts.
Even taking at face value the Chancellor's forecasts, the UK will have to borrow some £175bn this year and £173bn the next to make up for the shortfall in tax revenues and extra demands on the public purse from increased social welfare spending.
At over 12pc of gross domestic product, these represent the worst years for the public finances since the 1940s. However, the optimistic economic forecasts are doubly significant in this case because higher growth means a lower deficit. Should the Chancellor's economic projections be proven wrong, the eventual outcome for the national accounts will be worse still, according to City analysts, with total borrowing likely to surpass £200bn and not to peak until next year.
The tidal wave of extra debt will push up Britain's net national debt from below 40pc – one of the ceilings set by Gordon Brown in 1998 but since abandoned – to almost 80pc.
The Treasury said it still had no plans to reinstate any fiscal rules to bring its borrowing back under control in the future. In fact, it said it did not expect the budget to come back into balance until 2018 or beyond.
The Budget came amid continuing bad economic news, with the Office for National Statistics announcing that unemployment jumped by 177,000 to 2.1m in the three months to February, taking the jobless rate to 6.7pc.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Mr Darling cemented his reputation as the Chancellor with the worst forecasting record in modern history after he slashed his projection for British economic output this year to -3.5pc.
Unveiling the biggest increase in government borrowing since the Second World War, he conceded that Britain's national debt will double to around £1.2 trillion in the coming years, and that the budget would not return to balance until 2018 or later.
In what economists described as a "fantasy Budget", Mr Darling imposed swingeing new taxes on those who earn more than £150,000, which will raise as much as £5.5bn a year by 2012 – one of the biggest per-capita tax increases in recent history.
But while he will try to trim some departmental budgets, he will nevertheless increase the total amount the labour Government will spend this year and the next by £37.6bn. This indicates that if he does intend to balance the nation's books, he will do so not with spending cuts but with tax rises.
However, the proposed tax and spending measures pale into insignificance against the scale and extent of the economic and fiscal crunch mapped out in the Budget small print.
The documentation reveals that this year's economic contraction will be the worst in any year since the end of the Second World War. Indeed, according to the International Monetary Fund, this year is likely to be the worst since the 1930s, as countries around the world slump into a synchronised slowdown.
The Chancellor predicted that despite shrinking by 3.5pc this year, the UK economy would start growing again "towards the end of the year", with 1.25pc growth next year and 3.5pc from 2011 onwards. Last night economic historians were trying in vain to find examples of developed countries that had stomached so significant a one-off drop in growth and yet managed to recover within 12 months.
As the IMF pointed out last week, recessions associated with financial crises tend to be more protracted and virulent than almost any other type, and that is precisely what the UK faces.
Indeed, alongside many City economists, the IMF expects the UK economy to shrink by a further 0.4pc next year – significantly below even the Chancellor's revised forecasts.
Dig a little deeper into the Budget and it becomes clear that the Treasury expects nothing short of a full-scale consumer recovery – if not boom – in order to satisfy its projections. Such a prospect seems unrealistic if not outlandish, according to City experts.
Even taking at face value the Chancellor's forecasts, the UK will have to borrow some £175bn this year and £173bn the next to make up for the shortfall in tax revenues and extra demands on the public purse from increased social welfare spending.
At over 12pc of gross domestic product, these represent the worst years for the public finances since the 1940s. However, the optimistic economic forecasts are doubly significant in this case because higher growth means a lower deficit. Should the Chancellor's economic projections be proven wrong, the eventual outcome for the national accounts will be worse still, according to City analysts, with total borrowing likely to surpass £200bn and not to peak until next year.
The tidal wave of extra debt will push up Britain's net national debt from below 40pc – one of the ceilings set by Gordon Brown in 1998 but since abandoned – to almost 80pc.
The Treasury said it still had no plans to reinstate any fiscal rules to bring its borrowing back under control in the future. In fact, it said it did not expect the budget to come back into balance until 2018 or beyond.
The Budget came amid continuing bad economic news, with the Office for National Statistics announcing that unemployment jumped by 177,000 to 2.1m in the three months to February, taking the jobless rate to 6.7pc.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, BoE, IMF, labour liars, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:19 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Unemployment hits 2.1m ahead of 'Budget for jobs'
Jobless numbers swell to the highest since Labour came to power in 1997 as 73,700 more people joined the dole queue.
The number of people out of work rose by 177,000 to 2.1 million in the three months to February, official figures showed today, as Alistair Darling prepared to outline his "Budget for jobs."
New jobs data from the Office National Statistics (ONS) was much better than expected with the number claiming benefits rising by 73,700 to 1.46 million in March. The figure is a major improvement on February when the number of people claiming jobseekers' allowance rose by a record 138,400 to 1.4 million.
The figures were unveiled as Mr Darling prepared to unveil a Budget that will include a £2.5 billion package to guarantee work or training for every young person out of work for more than a year.
Thousands more Civil Service jobs will be lost over the next four years as departments struggle to find £45 billion in “efficiency savings” by 2013-14.
Alistair Darling will claim to be introducing a “Budget for jobs” today with a £2.5 billion package that includes a guarantee of work or training for every young person out of work for more than a year.
The Chancellor will also back recommendations by five external advisers to find savings by cutting office space, selling property, privatising assets and sharing purchasing contracts across the Government.
The advisers recommend savings starting at £5 billion a year and rising to £15 billion annually by 2013-14. Suggestions include cutting office space by 30 per cent, through hot-desking, halving the size of the Land Registry and preparing the Royal Mint for whole or partial sale.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The number of people out of work rose by 177,000 to 2.1 million in the three months to February, official figures showed today, as Alistair Darling prepared to outline his "Budget for jobs."
New jobs data from the Office National Statistics (ONS) was much better than expected with the number claiming benefits rising by 73,700 to 1.46 million in March. The figure is a major improvement on February when the number of people claiming jobseekers' allowance rose by a record 138,400 to 1.4 million.
The figures were unveiled as Mr Darling prepared to unveil a Budget that will include a £2.5 billion package to guarantee work or training for every young person out of work for more than a year.
Thousands more Civil Service jobs will be lost over the next four years as departments struggle to find £45 billion in “efficiency savings” by 2013-14.
Alistair Darling will claim to be introducing a “Budget for jobs” today with a £2.5 billion package that includes a guarantee of work or training for every young person out of work for more than a year.
The Chancellor will also back recommendations by five external advisers to find savings by cutting office space, selling property, privatising assets and sharing purchasing contracts across the Government.
The advisers recommend savings starting at £5 billion a year and rising to £15 billion annually by 2013-14. Suggestions include cutting office space by 30 per cent, through hot-desking, halving the size of the Land Registry and preparing the Royal Mint for whole or partial sale.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, UK loans rates, uk recession, unemployment
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:59 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Tens of thousands of home owners evicted since labour's measures first spin
Tens of thousands of home owners have been evicted from their homes since Gordon Brown first span a package of measures to help them, new figures show.
Calculations suggest up to 28,000 households -across Britain have had their homes repossessed despite the measures being announced last December.
The Homeowner Mortgage Support Scheme, intended to help home owners by allowing them to delay their mortgage payments, was announced by the labour Prime Minister with great fanfare at the end of last year as a way of helping struggling families across Britain remain in their homes as the recession took hold.
But at the time, the labour Government admitted that it had yet to develop the scheme in detail and said it would not be available until early in the New Year.
However, almost five months has passed, and the delay in launching the scheme has meant it is too late for tens of thousand of borrowers who were unable to keep up with their mortgage repayments.
The figures have prompted mortgage experts and politicians to describe the delay in launching the scheme as "outrageous".
They accused the labour Government of trying to "spin a headline" rather than provide genuine help amid the housing slump.
Grant Shapps, the shadow housing minister, said: "The Prime Minister just doesn't seem to appreciate the urgency of the situation in the housing market. People are suffering now, and looking for urgent help.
"The trouble is that home owners believed the hype – and as a constituency MP I'm often approached by people who say they thought there was a scheme out there to help them.
"Once again the Government is trying to spin a headline rather than providing real help during the recession."
The figures calculated by the Conservatives are based on data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, which forecasts that 75,000 will be repossessed this year.
Melanie Bien, of mortgage brokers Savills Private Finance, said: "While the scheme has admirable intentions in trying to save home owners from repossession, it is outrageous that it has taken so long for it to be implemented.
"There has been precious little detail on this scheme from the start and desperate homeowners have been waiting for some clarification: this will come too late for many."
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Calculations suggest up to 28,000 households -across Britain have had their homes repossessed despite the measures being announced last December.
The Homeowner Mortgage Support Scheme, intended to help home owners by allowing them to delay their mortgage payments, was announced by the labour Prime Minister with great fanfare at the end of last year as a way of helping struggling families across Britain remain in their homes as the recession took hold.
But at the time, the labour Government admitted that it had yet to develop the scheme in detail and said it would not be available until early in the New Year.
However, almost five months has passed, and the delay in launching the scheme has meant it is too late for tens of thousand of borrowers who were unable to keep up with their mortgage repayments.
The figures have prompted mortgage experts and politicians to describe the delay in launching the scheme as "outrageous".
They accused the labour Government of trying to "spin a headline" rather than provide genuine help amid the housing slump.
Grant Shapps, the shadow housing minister, said: "The Prime Minister just doesn't seem to appreciate the urgency of the situation in the housing market. People are suffering now, and looking for urgent help.
"The trouble is that home owners believed the hype – and as a constituency MP I'm often approached by people who say they thought there was a scheme out there to help them.
"Once again the Government is trying to spin a headline rather than providing real help during the recession."
The figures calculated by the Conservatives are based on data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, which forecasts that 75,000 will be repossessed this year.
Melanie Bien, of mortgage brokers Savills Private Finance, said: "While the scheme has admirable intentions in trying to save home owners from repossession, it is outrageous that it has taken so long for it to be implemented.
"There has been precious little detail on this scheme from the start and desperate homeowners have been waiting for some clarification: this will come too late for many."
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: home loans, recession, refinancing rates, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:32 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Sterling leads the way up
Despite yesterday’s trading volumes being severely depleted resulting from the Bank Holiday across much of Europe and the UK; there was plenty of activity - both in the equity and the currency markets.
Sterling has tracked higher again following a UK bullish article that appeared in the Telegraph in which the Lombard economist predicts that the UK Housing crisis will end by Christmas. This will make today’s release of the March RICS housing market survey even more eagerly awaited with expectations of a slightly firmer figure from February’s -78.3% (the lowest figure in more than 30-years).
Survey data suggests that growth in enquiries and viewings have become more buoyant resulting in a modest uptick in sales although financing constraints combined with fears of unemployment continue to hold back any significant recovery in activity.
The US has a heavier calendar however with retail sales for March the highlight for today. The hope is for a continuation of the firmer than expected January and February figures but with the decline of the US auto-makers still headline news, the outcome could be close to a flat overall number.
This sets the scene for a strong opening on Wall Street where we are scheduled to get results from 3 major US corporate, Intel Corp, Infosys-Tech and Johnson & Johnson.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Sterling has tracked higher again following a UK bullish article that appeared in the Telegraph in which the Lombard economist predicts that the UK Housing crisis will end by Christmas. This will make today’s release of the March RICS housing market survey even more eagerly awaited with expectations of a slightly firmer figure from February’s -78.3% (the lowest figure in more than 30-years).
Survey data suggests that growth in enquiries and viewings have become more buoyant resulting in a modest uptick in sales although financing constraints combined with fears of unemployment continue to hold back any significant recovery in activity.
The US has a heavier calendar however with retail sales for March the highlight for today. The hope is for a continuation of the firmer than expected January and February figures but with the decline of the US auto-makers still headline news, the outcome could be close to a flat overall number.
This sets the scene for a strong opening on Wall Street where we are scheduled to get results from 3 major US corporate, Intel Corp, Infosys-Tech and Johnson & Johnson.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: home loans, Loan calculator, uk recession, US loans rates
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 1:29 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Pound hits five week high against euro
Sterling hit a five week high against the euro and rose against the dollar on Tuesday as the UK currency was bolstered by renewed demand for London-listed equities.
Global risk appetite had been whetted by strong earnings figures from US investment bank Goldman Sachs released on Monday, with sterling benefiting due to the UK economy’s perceived dependence on its banking sector.
The pound, viewed as a riskier currency than the dollar or yen, has tended to gain in tandem with stock markets and analysts at Commerzbank said that sterling should outperform in the currency markets as long as sentiment towards the financial sector continues to improve.
BNP Paribas however said that sterling’s robust performance against the dollar could be challenged if the forthcoming set of first quarter US corporate earnings delivers any shocks.
“Sterling will not be able to avoid the impact of any increase in asset market volatility over the coming week and hence caution with long positions is still required in the near-term,” BNP Paribas said.
“The pace of earnings releases picks up next week and still has the potential to deliver negative shocks. But the pessimism that has been built in to equity markets with many commentators now calling for new lows, is likely to cushion bearish news.”
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Global risk appetite had been whetted by strong earnings figures from US investment bank Goldman Sachs released on Monday, with sterling benefiting due to the UK economy’s perceived dependence on its banking sector.
The pound, viewed as a riskier currency than the dollar or yen, has tended to gain in tandem with stock markets and analysts at Commerzbank said that sterling should outperform in the currency markets as long as sentiment towards the financial sector continues to improve.
BNP Paribas however said that sterling’s robust performance against the dollar could be challenged if the forthcoming set of first quarter US corporate earnings delivers any shocks.
“Sterling will not be able to avoid the impact of any increase in asset market volatility over the coming week and hence caution with long positions is still required in the near-term,” BNP Paribas said.
“The pace of earnings releases picks up next week and still has the potential to deliver negative shocks. But the pessimism that has been built in to equity markets with many commentators now calling for new lows, is likely to cushion bearish news.”
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, Quantitative Easing, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:54 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Recession keeps tight grip on UK economy
Labour's recession kept a tight grip on the British economy in the first three months of the year, a leading economic forecaster warned.
New forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimate that the economy contracted 1.5pc between January and March. If the think-tank is correct, it would mean the recession remained as severe in the first three months of the year as it was in the final quarter of 2008, when gross domestic product fell 1.6pc.
The gloomy figures reinforced fears that gross domestic product data due to be published by the ONS on April 24 will show that the recession showed no sign of easing in the first quarter.
NIESR added that so far the fall in output has taken a similar path to the recession which began in the summer of 1979. "If the 1980s profile were followed, output would continue to decline for up to another year and it would take two further years before the level of output enjoyed at the start of 2008 would be reached again," it said.
Figures yesterday showed British manufacturing sector shrank the most since records began in 1968 in the three months to February, dragged down by a dwindling car industry.
Data out on Tuesday showed that output fell by 6.5pc over the period, as conditions for UK manufacturers worsened in the grip of recession. The worst affected area was car manufacturing, where output fell by 30.7pc according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.
Overall the manufacturing sector shrank by 12.2pc compared with the same three months a year ago.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
New forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimate that the economy contracted 1.5pc between January and March. If the think-tank is correct, it would mean the recession remained as severe in the first three months of the year as it was in the final quarter of 2008, when gross domestic product fell 1.6pc.
The gloomy figures reinforced fears that gross domestic product data due to be published by the ONS on April 24 will show that the recession showed no sign of easing in the first quarter.
NIESR added that so far the fall in output has taken a similar path to the recession which began in the summer of 1979. "If the 1980s profile were followed, output would continue to decline for up to another year and it would take two further years before the level of output enjoyed at the start of 2008 would be reached again," it said.
Figures yesterday showed British manufacturing sector shrank the most since records began in 1968 in the three months to February, dragged down by a dwindling car industry.
Data out on Tuesday showed that output fell by 6.5pc over the period, as conditions for UK manufacturers worsened in the grip of recession. The worst affected area was car manufacturing, where output fell by 30.7pc according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.
Overall the manufacturing sector shrank by 12.2pc compared with the same three months a year ago.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, refinancing rates, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:36 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, April 07, 2009
UK data weak- but above consensus
UK manufacturing and Industrial production data has been released this morning- both slightly better numbers than expected but that still does not hide the fact that it is grim reading.
The year on year drop in industrial production is the biggest drop since the series began in 1968. The year on year drop in manufacturing output is the biggest since Jan 1981.
Comments from ECB members suggest that the ECB has neared its rate cutting cycle with the sentiment that the ECB and other central banks now need to be vigilant for an upturn in inflation.
With data still coming in progressively weaker in the euro zone and expected to weaken further, inflationary pressure will be very difficult to manage. The Irish government is set to announce its budget- the expectation is for higher taxes and less spending…the economy is contracting sharply and its economy boasts the worst deficit in Europe.
Overnight the Reserve Bank Of Australia cut interest rates to a record low of 3.0%, with unemployment still rising there could be further cuts moving forward, RBA governor Glenn Stevens said the board saw scope for a further modest reduction.
Elsewhere, the Bank Of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.1% and expanded their list of acceptable collateral for money market operations to help liquidate the economy.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The year on year drop in industrial production is the biggest drop since the series began in 1968. The year on year drop in manufacturing output is the biggest since Jan 1981.
Comments from ECB members suggest that the ECB has neared its rate cutting cycle with the sentiment that the ECB and other central banks now need to be vigilant for an upturn in inflation.
With data still coming in progressively weaker in the euro zone and expected to weaken further, inflationary pressure will be very difficult to manage. The Irish government is set to announce its budget- the expectation is for higher taxes and less spending…the economy is contracting sharply and its economy boasts the worst deficit in Europe.
Overnight the Reserve Bank Of Australia cut interest rates to a record low of 3.0%, with unemployment still rising there could be further cuts moving forward, RBA governor Glenn Stevens said the board saw scope for a further modest reduction.
Elsewhere, the Bank Of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.1% and expanded their list of acceptable collateral for money market operations to help liquidate the economy.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Aussie loans rates, Bank of Japan, ECB, falling interest rates, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:36 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Dunfermline bill leaves state with £600m exposure
The taxpayer is on the hook for as much as £600m to cover the failure of Dunfermline Building Society after Scotland's largest mutual became the first lender to be dismantled under the labour Government's new "special resolution regime".
Following a deal brokered by the Bank of England and the Treasury over the weekend, labour will transfer £1.6bn of state funds to Nationwide Building Society, which is taking £2.35bn of Dunfermline's deposits and £250m of treasury investments in return for absorbing £1bn of its prime residential mortgages.
The transfer is being made because the assets Nationwide is assuming are £1.6bn less than the liabilities.
However, the cost will be split between the industry-backed deposit protection scheme and the taxpayer. Both the Treasury and the Financial Services Authority refused to reveal how much the Financial Services Compensation Scheme will cover, but insiders said it was "between £1bn and £1.5bn".
In the worst case scenario, that would leave the taxpayer liable for £600m although any final loss is more likely to be in the tens of millions of pounds.
The labour Government's reluctance to detail either the possible exposure or the potential loss drew criticism from the Conservatives. George Osborne, the shadow Chancellor, demanded to know: "What is the maximum possible loss for the taxpayer? What is the maximum exposure?"
Alistair Darling would only say there was "a small residual exposure for the Government".
Although the state is providing Nationwide the £1.6bn in the first instance, the funds will be recovered by running down and selling off the society's remaining assets. A £450m book of social housing mortgages has been placed into a "bridge bank" under the control of the Bank of England that is expected to draw bidders.
However, a further £650m of troubled commercial property loans as well as £150m of toxic self certified mortgages bought from GMAC and Lehman Brothers has been placed with administrators KPMG.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Following a deal brokered by the Bank of England and the Treasury over the weekend, labour will transfer £1.6bn of state funds to Nationwide Building Society, which is taking £2.35bn of Dunfermline's deposits and £250m of treasury investments in return for absorbing £1bn of its prime residential mortgages.
The transfer is being made because the assets Nationwide is assuming are £1.6bn less than the liabilities.
However, the cost will be split between the industry-backed deposit protection scheme and the taxpayer. Both the Treasury and the Financial Services Authority refused to reveal how much the Financial Services Compensation Scheme will cover, but insiders said it was "between £1bn and £1.5bn".
In the worst case scenario, that would leave the taxpayer liable for £600m although any final loss is more likely to be in the tens of millions of pounds.
The labour Government's reluctance to detail either the possible exposure or the potential loss drew criticism from the Conservatives. George Osborne, the shadow Chancellor, demanded to know: "What is the maximum possible loss for the taxpayer? What is the maximum exposure?"
Alistair Darling would only say there was "a small residual exposure for the Government".
Although the state is providing Nationwide the £1.6bn in the first instance, the funds will be recovered by running down and selling off the society's remaining assets. A £450m book of social housing mortgages has been placed into a "bridge bank" under the control of the Bank of England that is expected to draw bidders.
However, a further £650m of troubled commercial property loans as well as £150m of toxic self certified mortgages bought from GMAC and Lehman Brothers has been placed with administrators KPMG.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, sub prime loans, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:13 AM 0 comments
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Friday, March 27, 2009
UK economy slows sharper than expected as construction slumps
GB economy slowed even more sharply than expected in the last three months of 2008 as construction output plunged, official data showed today.
GDP contracted by 1.6pc in the fourth quarter of 2008, revised down from a contraction of 1.5pc, the Office for National Statistics reported. The quarterly fall of 1.6pc was the sharpest decline since 1980.
Construction output tumbled 4.9pc over the quarter, revised down from a fall of 1.1pc. The ONS said this was due to survey data replacing a forecast.
The decline is the biggest quarterly fall in construction output since the fourth quarter on 1980.
Output of the production industries fell 4.5pc compared with a fall of 1.8pc in the previous quarter, driven by the marked decline in manufacturing output.
Separate figures showed Britain's current account deficit narrowed to £7.641bn in the fourth quarter of 2008 from an upwardly revised deficit of £8.162bn in the third quarter.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
GDP contracted by 1.6pc in the fourth quarter of 2008, revised down from a contraction of 1.5pc, the Office for National Statistics reported. The quarterly fall of 1.6pc was the sharpest decline since 1980.
Construction output tumbled 4.9pc over the quarter, revised down from a fall of 1.1pc. The ONS said this was due to survey data replacing a forecast.
The decline is the biggest quarterly fall in construction output since the fourth quarter on 1980.
Output of the production industries fell 4.5pc compared with a fall of 1.8pc in the previous quarter, driven by the marked decline in manufacturing output.
Separate figures showed Britain's current account deficit narrowed to £7.641bn in the fourth quarter of 2008 from an upwardly revised deficit of £8.162bn in the third quarter.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, Loan calculator, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:26 AM 0 comments
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Thursday, March 26, 2009
Brown's reckless spending plans in trouble
The UK gilt auction by the debt management office failed to sell the total £1.75bn on offer.
This is the first time such an auction has failed since 2002 and identifies probable concern over the health of public finances. The failure in the auction will concern the government and follows a warning from Mervyn King on additional fiscal stimulus for the UK economy.
Future such auctions will be watched closely to gauge if yesterday’s failure was a one off or more failures will follow.
US stocks rose yesterday and the US economy was helped with a glimmer of hope from new home sales and durable goods coming in better than expected. The dollar fell sharply for a brief spell yesterday as treasury secretary Tim Geithners comments were misconstrued by the market.
The basis of the comments was the suggestion of the US exploring Chinese proposals to incorporate a global reserve currency and so reduce reliance on the USD as a reserve currency.
Naturally the dollar was sold on this suggestion before clarification had filtered through to the media. This really shows how fragile and reactive the markets are in the present economic climate.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
This is the first time such an auction has failed since 2002 and identifies probable concern over the health of public finances. The failure in the auction will concern the government and follows a warning from Mervyn King on additional fiscal stimulus for the UK economy.
Future such auctions will be watched closely to gauge if yesterday’s failure was a one off or more failures will follow.
US stocks rose yesterday and the US economy was helped with a glimmer of hope from new home sales and durable goods coming in better than expected. The dollar fell sharply for a brief spell yesterday as treasury secretary Tim Geithners comments were misconstrued by the market.
The basis of the comments was the suggestion of the US exploring Chinese proposals to incorporate a global reserve currency and so reduce reliance on the USD as a reserve currency.
Naturally the dollar was sold on this suggestion before clarification had filtered through to the media. This really shows how fragile and reactive the markets are in the present economic climate.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:39 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, March 25, 2009
UK shares- is this a good time to invest?
The stock market has jumped by about 500 points in the past couple of weeks, but investors thinking of putting their Isa money into shares want to know one thing: is this the start of a sustained recovery or a dead cat bounce?
Stock markets have shown signs of life in the past few weeks. Since London's benchmark FTSE100 touched a six-year low earlier this month, falling below 3,500 at one stage, it has rallied strongly, closing at 3,912 on Tuesday.
America's Dow Jones index has also put in a good performance, posting one of its largest ever one-day rises following the announcement of a bail-out for banks' toxic assets.
But British investors wondering whether to use this year's Isa allowance before the deadline of April 5 have reason to be cautious: the markets have staged several apparent recoveries during the economic crisis, only to fall back again.
So is it different this time – is this a long-term recovery or just a dead cat bounce? Should you forget taking out a stocks and shares Isa this year, or dip a toe in the market? We asked the experts where they thought the market was heading and which equity investments, if any, Isa buyers should consider buying.
MARK HARRIS, FUND OF FUNDS MANAGER AT NEW STAR
"I think the lows in March may prove to be significant, but that a 'test' may occur in April. If we can make a higher low for equities in April, it will be positive for further gains. But I should reiterate that I still believe that we are in a very challenging environment, and that it will be a couple of years before we can say that this bear market is truly over.
"So, put simply, we will see the rally which is just unfolding, then a correction of about 15pc, and then a further rally to take the market up in total by about 40pc from the lows."
JUSTIN URQUHART STEWART OF SEVEN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
"Shares on a five-year view may be OK, although prices could be highly erratic.
"I think it's too risky putting all my money into one asset class so I've diversified my investments into a mix of commodities, property, international shares and fixed interest securities such as bonds.
"You can do this yourself in a self-select Isa but it could be expensive and time consuming. An easier way is to buy a multi-asset fund, which you can hold within an Isa.
MARK DAMPIER, HEAD OF RESEARCH, HARGREAVES LANSDOWN
"Come what may, do buy an Isa – use your whole allowance (£7,200, of which £3,600 can be cash).
"Unless you trust politicians – and I don't – they are going to try to get more money out of you by raising taxes. So shelter as much as possible from tax while you can.
"Some people think the Isa allowance is so small that it's not worth bothering. But the yearly sums accumulate: a couple who had used their full allowances for every year that Isas and their predecessors, Peps and Tessas, have existed could have built up £190,000 by now – and that's discounting investment growth.
"I suspect this rally is more of a dead cat bounce; it comes from a very low position. There seems to be a base at about 3,500. Let's be a bit careful but with the market about 50pc below its peak it has to be an interesting time to think about investing.
"With inflation of over 3pc on the CPI you would normally have interest rates at 5pc, not 0.5pc. So given the risk of inflation taking off I'd consider gold, via a fund such as BlackRock Gold & General.
"This rally is still more hope than anything else, the kind that has a habit of disappointing. I wouldn't push a load of money in; I'd wait for bad days and drip-feed it in then. The markets are not about to race away but one of these days they will, so don't wait for ever.
"Eventually, there will be the mother of all rallies."
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Stock markets have shown signs of life in the past few weeks. Since London's benchmark FTSE100 touched a six-year low earlier this month, falling below 3,500 at one stage, it has rallied strongly, closing at 3,912 on Tuesday.
America's Dow Jones index has also put in a good performance, posting one of its largest ever one-day rises following the announcement of a bail-out for banks' toxic assets.
But British investors wondering whether to use this year's Isa allowance before the deadline of April 5 have reason to be cautious: the markets have staged several apparent recoveries during the economic crisis, only to fall back again.
So is it different this time – is this a long-term recovery or just a dead cat bounce? Should you forget taking out a stocks and shares Isa this year, or dip a toe in the market? We asked the experts where they thought the market was heading and which equity investments, if any, Isa buyers should consider buying.
MARK HARRIS, FUND OF FUNDS MANAGER AT NEW STAR
"I think the lows in March may prove to be significant, but that a 'test' may occur in April. If we can make a higher low for equities in April, it will be positive for further gains. But I should reiterate that I still believe that we are in a very challenging environment, and that it will be a couple of years before we can say that this bear market is truly over.
"So, put simply, we will see the rally which is just unfolding, then a correction of about 15pc, and then a further rally to take the market up in total by about 40pc from the lows."
JUSTIN URQUHART STEWART OF SEVEN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
"Shares on a five-year view may be OK, although prices could be highly erratic.
"I think it's too risky putting all my money into one asset class so I've diversified my investments into a mix of commodities, property, international shares and fixed interest securities such as bonds.
"You can do this yourself in a self-select Isa but it could be expensive and time consuming. An easier way is to buy a multi-asset fund, which you can hold within an Isa.
MARK DAMPIER, HEAD OF RESEARCH, HARGREAVES LANSDOWN
"Come what may, do buy an Isa – use your whole allowance (£7,200, of which £3,600 can be cash).
"Unless you trust politicians – and I don't – they are going to try to get more money out of you by raising taxes. So shelter as much as possible from tax while you can.
"Some people think the Isa allowance is so small that it's not worth bothering. But the yearly sums accumulate: a couple who had used their full allowances for every year that Isas and their predecessors, Peps and Tessas, have existed could have built up £190,000 by now – and that's discounting investment growth.
"I suspect this rally is more of a dead cat bounce; it comes from a very low position. There seems to be a base at about 3,500. Let's be a bit careful but with the market about 50pc below its peak it has to be an interesting time to think about investing.
"With inflation of over 3pc on the CPI you would normally have interest rates at 5pc, not 0.5pc. So given the risk of inflation taking off I'd consider gold, via a fund such as BlackRock Gold & General.
"This rally is still more hope than anything else, the kind that has a habit of disappointing. I wouldn't push a load of money in; I'd wait for bad days and drip-feed it in then. The markets are not about to race away but one of these days they will, so don't wait for ever.
"Eventually, there will be the mother of all rallies."
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:16 AM 0 comments
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Friday, March 20, 2009
Gordon Brown's G20 dream fades amid European hostility
Gordon ditherer Brown’s hopes of leading the world out of recession at next month’s pivotal summit in London were undermined yesterday when European leaders flatly rejected calls for a further massive stimulus package.
The incompetent Prime Minister has been forced to lower expectations for the G20 summit, where leaders of the richest 20 countries will gather.
Mr Brown has stopped comparing his event on April 2 to the Bretton Woods meeting in 1944 which set up the postwar world financial system. He recognises that there is no appetite to create new global institutions in the face of reservations in the European Union and the US.
The London meeting risks being overshadowed by a dispute between Europe and the US over public spending. A series of leaders at an EU summit led by Angela Merkel, the Germany Chancellor, refused yesterday to go along with American calls for greater borrowing and spending by Europe.
Amid scaled-down ambitions for the G20 Mr Brown is backing a doubling of resources for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the lender of last resort to bankrupt governments that Bretton Woods set up. He will push for its reform to involve China and other big developing economies further.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The incompetent Prime Minister has been forced to lower expectations for the G20 summit, where leaders of the richest 20 countries will gather.
Mr Brown has stopped comparing his event on April 2 to the Bretton Woods meeting in 1944 which set up the postwar world financial system. He recognises that there is no appetite to create new global institutions in the face of reservations in the European Union and the US.
The London meeting risks being overshadowed by a dispute between Europe and the US over public spending. A series of leaders at an EU summit led by Angela Merkel, the Germany Chancellor, refused yesterday to go along with American calls for greater borrowing and spending by Europe.
Amid scaled-down ambitions for the G20 Mr Brown is backing a doubling of resources for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the lender of last resort to bankrupt governments that Bretton Woods set up. He will push for its reform to involve China and other big developing economies further.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, G20, recession, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:33 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, March 18, 2009
UK unemployment jumps at fastest pace on record
UK unemployment last month jumped at the fastest pace since records began, driving the number of Britons without work to above 2 million for the first time since the Labour Government came to power in 1997.
Figures from the Office of National Statistics released today show 138,400 people joined the dole last month, pushing the number of unemployed to 2.03 million.
In a blizzard of terrible data, the number of people who began claiming jobless benefits in January was revised higher to 93,500 from 73,800. City economists had expected a jump of 84,800 for February and the month's increase is the fastest since records began in 1971, and leaves the unemployment rate at 6.5pc.
"Horrendous," George Buckley, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said of the numbers. "This is probably going to persist for a while as long as that kind of growth continues."
"Sharply rising unemployment, along with slowing income growth, seems highly likely to increasingly depress consumer spending over the coming months," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight.
The UK is likely to lose more than a million more jobs over the next 12 months, according to a report from consultancy company Oxford Economics, with the north and the Midlands hit hard. Economists are worried that rising unemployment will sharpen the recession as those still in work cut their spending.
The Bank of England's David Blanchflower, the most prominent economist to deliver an early warning about the threat of recession, said last month that unemployment could top 3 million, or 10pc in 2010. He recommends the government spends billions of pounds on public works to create jobs.
Rising unemployment is being mirrored across the world's major economies, with an unemployment rate of 7.9pc in France, 7.2pc in Germany, 6.7pc in Italy and 7.6pc in the United States.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Figures from the Office of National Statistics released today show 138,400 people joined the dole last month, pushing the number of unemployed to 2.03 million.
In a blizzard of terrible data, the number of people who began claiming jobless benefits in January was revised higher to 93,500 from 73,800. City economists had expected a jump of 84,800 for February and the month's increase is the fastest since records began in 1971, and leaves the unemployment rate at 6.5pc.
"Horrendous," George Buckley, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said of the numbers. "This is probably going to persist for a while as long as that kind of growth continues."
"Sharply rising unemployment, along with slowing income growth, seems highly likely to increasingly depress consumer spending over the coming months," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight.
The UK is likely to lose more than a million more jobs over the next 12 months, according to a report from consultancy company Oxford Economics, with the north and the Midlands hit hard. Economists are worried that rising unemployment will sharpen the recession as those still in work cut their spending.
The Bank of England's David Blanchflower, the most prominent economist to deliver an early warning about the threat of recession, said last month that unemployment could top 3 million, or 10pc in 2010. He recommends the government spends billions of pounds on public works to create jobs.
Rising unemployment is being mirrored across the world's major economies, with an unemployment rate of 7.9pc in France, 7.2pc in Germany, 6.7pc in Italy and 7.6pc in the United States.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, recession, UK loans rates, uk recession, unemployment
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:12 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Markets enjoy another day in the sun
Shares in London jumped for a third successive day, giving hope that the cloud of gloom over the financial system is now lifting.
The benchmark FTSE 100 index jumped almost 3pc, rising 110.31 points to 3,863.99, while shares on Wall Street were also higher in late trading. Markets were boosted by a statement from Barclays about its plans to shore up its balance sheet, and comments from analysts that shares are fast-becoming excellent value.
The news will encourage the Bank of England, which carried out the second of its reverse auctions as part of its quantitative easing programme. It is creating £75bn of new cash over the next three months to buy government and corporate debt from investors.
The idea is to encourage them to shift more cash into other investments such as equities. However, for the second time, the main sellers of the £2bn worth of gilts were not pension funds or insurance groups but investment banks and hedge funds.
There are nevertheless plenty of analysts who warn that the recent market recovery is actually a "sucker's rally", and that equities will fall further over the coming months.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The benchmark FTSE 100 index jumped almost 3pc, rising 110.31 points to 3,863.99, while shares on Wall Street were also higher in late trading. Markets were boosted by a statement from Barclays about its plans to shore up its balance sheet, and comments from analysts that shares are fast-becoming excellent value.
The news will encourage the Bank of England, which carried out the second of its reverse auctions as part of its quantitative easing programme. It is creating £75bn of new cash over the next three months to buy government and corporate debt from investors.
The idea is to encourage them to shift more cash into other investments such as equities. However, for the second time, the main sellers of the £2bn worth of gilts were not pension funds or insurance groups but investment banks and hedge funds.
There are nevertheless plenty of analysts who warn that the recent market recovery is actually a "sucker's rally", and that equities will fall further over the coming months.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, inflation, Quantitative Easing, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 2:44 PM 0 comments
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Monday, March 16, 2009
G20 meeting springs little surprise
There was actually very little focus at the G20 on the forex markets and recent volatility.
The main interest was the pledge to double the amount of resources of the IMF, this essentially comforted the markets and encouraged risk appetite.
For the week ahead, the main highlight will be the US interest rate decision on Wednesday evening. The FOMC will not shift interest rates any further but in the light of recent initiatives from the UK and Switzerland, they could discuss other measures to help the economy.
The Rightmove Housing survey released overnight also came in slightly positive with a 0.9% month on month gain. With the Swiss and possibly other economies looking to adopt Quantitative Easing it may be perceived that the UK is ahead of the game.
Still early days and recent news that 10 jobseekers are applying for every vacancy signifies a mountain to climb before the UK economy recovers.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The main interest was the pledge to double the amount of resources of the IMF, this essentially comforted the markets and encouraged risk appetite.
For the week ahead, the main highlight will be the US interest rate decision on Wednesday evening. The FOMC will not shift interest rates any further but in the light of recent initiatives from the UK and Switzerland, they could discuss other measures to help the economy.
The Rightmove Housing survey released overnight also came in slightly positive with a 0.9% month on month gain. With the Swiss and possibly other economies looking to adopt Quantitative Easing it may be perceived that the UK is ahead of the game.
Still early days and recent news that 10 jobseekers are applying for every vacancy signifies a mountain to climb before the UK economy recovers.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, G20, Loan calculator, uk recession, US loans rates, US mortgage rates
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 7:47 PM 0 comments
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Friday, March 13, 2009
Gordon Brown and Bernard Madoff are separated by a single detail – Bernie's pleading guilty
Loan Calculator believes that the Prime Minister's mismanagement, which has brought us a dysfunctional state as well as financial disaster, will prove far more costly than any Ponzi scheme.
What's the difference between Bernard Madoff and Gordon Brown? Answer: one has drained fortunes from gullible victims, plundering their income and savings to create an illusion of prosperity. The other is going to jail.
Mr Madoff has thrown in the towel. His Ponzi scheme, whereby he needed to suck in ever greater quantities of other people's money in order to maintain a semblance of competence, collapsed under the weight of undeliverable expectations. Nobody knows for sure how much has gone missing, but Wall Street scribes are calling it a $65 billion fraud.
Not bad for peddling fresh air. It is, however, a nickel-and-dime swindle when set alongside the 12-year con trick perpetrated by Mr Brown on British taxpayers. That, too, has been a form of Ponzi, but with many more zeroes and little chance of the mastermind ending his days in what Americans call Crowbar Hotel.
The Prime Minister is nothing if not a man of vaulting ambition, with a desire for power which, like Macbeth's, "o'er leaps itself". While Big Bucks Bernie was snaffling billions, Mr Brown had his sights trained on trillions.
Five trillion, to be precise – that's £5,000,000,000,000 – which is how much Labour has taxed and spent since it came to power.
In 1998-99 its Budget was £333 billion. By 2008-09, the Government's annual expenditure had grown to £618 billion. Every year, the sums required to shore up the house of cards became bigger and bigger. But while the good times rolled, too few cared to notice what was really going on.
We await with trepidation this year's stab in the dark. On the basis that bad numbers take longer to add up than good ones, it is ominous that the Chancellor has put back his annual showpiece to April 22, the latest it has been for many years. One fears that fiscal discipline has been thrown over the fence, replaced by a confection of guesstimates, wishful thinking and spin.
Though the scale of their operations was very different, the sales techniques of Mr Madoff and Mr Brown were remarkably similar. Mr Madoff persuaded clients that he owned the secret of everlasting growth, a way of defying financial gravity. His unique selling points were, yes, stability and prudence.
Over the years, Mr Madoff stretched the credulity of his constituency well beyond what a rational man might have thought possible. Those who tipped cash into his coffers seemed anxious, in some cases perversely determined, not to ask difficult questions. The trompe l'oeil was too delicious to be questioned. For a while, fantasy economics passed for reality in New York and London.
When the elastic finally snapped, so did Mr Madoff's resolve. Rather than conjure yet more elaborate excuses to cover the hole where his clients' investments were supposed to be, the old rogue confessed. He could no longer bear the strain of living a lie. Coming clean, it seems, was a relief.
It's at this point that comparisons to Mr Brown come to an end. For not only is there no prospect of the Prime Minister pleading guilty, he refuses to acknowledge any aspect of his catastrophic mismanagement. It may seem impossible to believe, but Mr Brown, far from recognising that he has ruined Britain, still has deluded plans to save the world.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
What's the difference between Bernard Madoff and Gordon Brown? Answer: one has drained fortunes from gullible victims, plundering their income and savings to create an illusion of prosperity. The other is going to jail.
Mr Madoff has thrown in the towel. His Ponzi scheme, whereby he needed to suck in ever greater quantities of other people's money in order to maintain a semblance of competence, collapsed under the weight of undeliverable expectations. Nobody knows for sure how much has gone missing, but Wall Street scribes are calling it a $65 billion fraud.
Not bad for peddling fresh air. It is, however, a nickel-and-dime swindle when set alongside the 12-year con trick perpetrated by Mr Brown on British taxpayers. That, too, has been a form of Ponzi, but with many more zeroes and little chance of the mastermind ending his days in what Americans call Crowbar Hotel.
The Prime Minister is nothing if not a man of vaulting ambition, with a desire for power which, like Macbeth's, "o'er leaps itself". While Big Bucks Bernie was snaffling billions, Mr Brown had his sights trained on trillions.
Five trillion, to be precise – that's £5,000,000,000,000 – which is how much Labour has taxed and spent since it came to power.
In 1998-99 its Budget was £333 billion. By 2008-09, the Government's annual expenditure had grown to £618 billion. Every year, the sums required to shore up the house of cards became bigger and bigger. But while the good times rolled, too few cared to notice what was really going on.
We await with trepidation this year's stab in the dark. On the basis that bad numbers take longer to add up than good ones, it is ominous that the Chancellor has put back his annual showpiece to April 22, the latest it has been for many years. One fears that fiscal discipline has been thrown over the fence, replaced by a confection of guesstimates, wishful thinking and spin.
Though the scale of their operations was very different, the sales techniques of Mr Madoff and Mr Brown were remarkably similar. Mr Madoff persuaded clients that he owned the secret of everlasting growth, a way of defying financial gravity. His unique selling points were, yes, stability and prudence.
Over the years, Mr Madoff stretched the credulity of his constituency well beyond what a rational man might have thought possible. Those who tipped cash into his coffers seemed anxious, in some cases perversely determined, not to ask difficult questions. The trompe l'oeil was too delicious to be questioned. For a while, fantasy economics passed for reality in New York and London.
When the elastic finally snapped, so did Mr Madoff's resolve. Rather than conjure yet more elaborate excuses to cover the hole where his clients' investments were supposed to be, the old rogue confessed. He could no longer bear the strain of living a lie. Coming clean, it seems, was a relief.
It's at this point that comparisons to Mr Brown come to an end. For not only is there no prospect of the Prime Minister pleading guilty, he refuses to acknowledge any aspect of his catastrophic mismanagement. It may seem impossible to believe, but Mr Brown, far from recognising that he has ruined Britain, still has deluded plans to save the world.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:03 AM 0 comments
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Thursday, March 12, 2009
What a difference a day makes
The equity markets surged higher after reports that Citigroup’s chief executive said that the US bank was profitable in the first two months of the year.
The markets at the moment are mixed on the impact of printing money and currently it is being conceived as sterling negative due to the uncertainty and the de-stabilising short term effects it could have.
However on the flip side many economies may need to follow suit as policy easing will not be sufficient to increase money supply, therefore the UK may be ahead of the game- time will tell!
As the introduction of printing money is new then undoubtedly the chatter and debate has spiralled with economists…in the words of George Bernard Shaw "If all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion. " so let us hope that actions will be more effective than words on creating inflation.
In other news Chinese exports dropped sharply in February, the drop of 25.7% compared with a year ago was sharper than analysts had anticipated- it seems a set trend globally that export markets are suffering as demand wanes.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The markets at the moment are mixed on the impact of printing money and currently it is being conceived as sterling negative due to the uncertainty and the de-stabilising short term effects it could have.
However on the flip side many economies may need to follow suit as policy easing will not be sufficient to increase money supply, therefore the UK may be ahead of the game- time will tell!
As the introduction of printing money is new then undoubtedly the chatter and debate has spiralled with economists…in the words of George Bernard Shaw "If all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion. " so let us hope that actions will be more effective than words on creating inflation.
In other news Chinese exports dropped sharply in February, the drop of 25.7% compared with a year ago was sharper than analysts had anticipated- it seems a set trend globally that export markets are suffering as demand wanes.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:43 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Manic Monday on the currency converter forex markets
Yesterday we saw dramatic swings in the forex markets with the Pound being the protagonist.
The reason for the sell off was related to the government increasing its stake in Lloyds banking group from 43% to 77% and also to rumours that Barclays may be next in line. Investors fear the nationalization of banks and the fact that further capital is required, may lead to uncertainty in the rest of the banking sector.
Looking at this mornings trading we have witnessed a slight recovery for the pound against the dollar even against the back drop of further weak data in the housing and manufacturing sectors.
A survey by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) confirmed that UK property sales between December and February remained at their lowest level since the survey commenced in 1978; UK manufacturing declined for the 11th straight month in January by 2.9% bringing the yearly decline to 12.8%.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The reason for the sell off was related to the government increasing its stake in Lloyds banking group from 43% to 77% and also to rumours that Barclays may be next in line. Investors fear the nationalization of banks and the fact that further capital is required, may lead to uncertainty in the rest of the banking sector.
Looking at this mornings trading we have witnessed a slight recovery for the pound against the dollar even against the back drop of further weak data in the housing and manufacturing sectors.
A survey by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) confirmed that UK property sales between December and February remained at their lowest level since the survey commenced in 1978; UK manufacturing declined for the 11th straight month in January by 2.9% bringing the yearly decline to 12.8%.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, home loans, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 1:48 PM 0 comments
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Wednesday, February 25, 2009
US stocks bounce from the lows
Following dreadful US consumer confidence data earlier in the day the Dow posted a 2% rise, this after Bernanke testified to the Senate on the health of the US economy.
He again highlighted that the US economy still faces further contraction, however he intimated that the US government would not move to nationalize US banks as this would lose value already built into banks. On the back of this there was an expected jump in bank stocks and this was the main driver for the gain in the Dow.
President Obama addressed congress for the first time yesterday and again stressed the severity of the economic crisis; he vowed to put a stop to wasteful spending and vowed that banks and bankers taking public funds would be held accountable.
He also reaffirmed his plan to cut the spiraling deficit which is becoming a huge problem for the US economy and will weigh on the dollar if not significantly reduced. Overall his address offered hope and determination for recovery as he vowed “we will build, we will recover”, lets hope so!
Yesterday in Europe we saw the German Ifo survey come more or less in line with expectations, today saw GDP come in exactly as expected at -2.1%. In the UK 4th quarter GDP was actually a touch better than expected showing a contraction of 1.5%, however taken in context this brings the year on year to -1.9% which is an 18 year low and reinforces the sharpness of the slowdown.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
He again highlighted that the US economy still faces further contraction, however he intimated that the US government would not move to nationalize US banks as this would lose value already built into banks. On the back of this there was an expected jump in bank stocks and this was the main driver for the gain in the Dow.
President Obama addressed congress for the first time yesterday and again stressed the severity of the economic crisis; he vowed to put a stop to wasteful spending and vowed that banks and bankers taking public funds would be held accountable.
He also reaffirmed his plan to cut the spiraling deficit which is becoming a huge problem for the US economy and will weigh on the dollar if not significantly reduced. Overall his address offered hope and determination for recovery as he vowed “we will build, we will recover”, lets hope so!
Yesterday in Europe we saw the German Ifo survey come more or less in line with expectations, today saw GDP come in exactly as expected at -2.1%. In the UK 4th quarter GDP was actually a touch better than expected showing a contraction of 1.5%, however taken in context this brings the year on year to -1.9% which is an 18 year low and reinforces the sharpness of the slowdown.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Barack Obama, Bernanke, credit crunch, uk recession, US mortgage rates
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:29 AM 0 comments
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Thursday, February 19, 2009
Nationalised banks to add £1.5 trillion to public debt
Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds TSB, the two banks bailed out by the labour Government, are to add between £1 trilion and £1.5 trillion to the public debt, the equivalent of between 70 and 100 per cent of GDP, the Office for National Statistics indicated this morning.
Britain’s public sector net debt is already a record high, hitting 47.8 per cent of GDP in January, official figures show. This is the highest level of debt recorded since the ONS started recording data in 1993.
The ONS said that it had decided to add the banks to the labour Government's books because "the Government has the ability to control the respective banks’ general corporate policy through the conditions associated with the agreements signed relating to recapitalisation."
Howard Archer, of IHS Global Insight, the economic consultancy, said: "Given the rate at which the UK public finances are deteriorating and new measures are having to be introduced to try to support the financial sector and the economy, it is frankly anyone's guess as to how high the public deficits may go over the next couple of years."
The massive debt will cause problems for the labour Government, which has already seen Northern Rock's debts added to its accounts. Analysts said that it would probably have to revise up its borrowing forecasts in April's budget.
Andrew Goodwin, Senior Economic Adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said: "We expect the Chancellor to be forced to make significant upward revisions to his borrowing projections when he presents the Budget."
The public sector showed a surplus on current budget of £8.4 billion in January 2009, compared with a surplus of £15.3 billion in January 2008.
Between April 2008 and January 2009, the public sector recorded a deficit of £42.5 billion. At the same stage of the 2007-08 financial year, a deficit of £7.0 billion had been recorded.
Mr Archer said: "The public finances for January are terrible, coming in even worse than feared. January always sees a surplus on the public finances at is a bumper month for tax receipts.
"Unfortunately though, bumper hardly describes the tax receipts for this January as they have been decimated by sharply contracting economic activity, declining profitability, rising unemployment, reduced bonus payments, December's VAT cut and substantially weakened housing market activity and prices.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Britain’s public sector net debt is already a record high, hitting 47.8 per cent of GDP in January, official figures show. This is the highest level of debt recorded since the ONS started recording data in 1993.
The ONS said that it had decided to add the banks to the labour Government's books because "the Government has the ability to control the respective banks’ general corporate policy through the conditions associated with the agreements signed relating to recapitalisation."
Howard Archer, of IHS Global Insight, the economic consultancy, said: "Given the rate at which the UK public finances are deteriorating and new measures are having to be introduced to try to support the financial sector and the economy, it is frankly anyone's guess as to how high the public deficits may go over the next couple of years."
The massive debt will cause problems for the labour Government, which has already seen Northern Rock's debts added to its accounts. Analysts said that it would probably have to revise up its borrowing forecasts in April's budget.
Andrew Goodwin, Senior Economic Adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said: "We expect the Chancellor to be forced to make significant upward revisions to his borrowing projections when he presents the Budget."
The public sector showed a surplus on current budget of £8.4 billion in January 2009, compared with a surplus of £15.3 billion in January 2008.
Between April 2008 and January 2009, the public sector recorded a deficit of £42.5 billion. At the same stage of the 2007-08 financial year, a deficit of £7.0 billion had been recorded.
Mr Archer said: "The public finances for January are terrible, coming in even worse than feared. January always sees a surplus on the public finances at is a bumper month for tax receipts.
"Unfortunately though, bumper hardly describes the tax receipts for this January as they have been decimated by sharply contracting economic activity, declining profitability, rising unemployment, reduced bonus payments, December's VAT cut and substantially weakened housing market activity and prices.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, sub prime loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:26 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Euro in the spotlight
The Pound held up well yesterday as the latest inflation data confirmed that CPI fell 0.7% in January bringing the annualized level to 3.0% which is down slightly from Decembers 3.1%.
The 3.0% level is still well above the Bank Of England’s 2% target for inflation and this data suggests that interest rates may not need to be cut in March as previously thought. However inflation will remain a concern for the Bank Of England- Mervyn King has already signaled that inflation could fall sharply this year and todays BOE minutes will give us more insight to the sentiment of the MPC.
Overnight the final approval was placed on the US stimulus package of $787bn which is desperately hoped will kick start the global economy. The urgency of Obama to introduce this stimulus was justified as General Motors and Chrysler have requested another $21.6bn on top of the $17.4bn already received.
This caused a sharp sell off in equities- in particular the Dow as risk aversion kicked in.
The BoE minutes just released showed a vote of 8-1 in favour of cutting rates at the last meeting in Feb…with inflation still 1% above the target and a rallying outcry from ignored savers it will be interesting to see the next decision in March!
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The 3.0% level is still well above the Bank Of England’s 2% target for inflation and this data suggests that interest rates may not need to be cut in March as previously thought. However inflation will remain a concern for the Bank Of England- Mervyn King has already signaled that inflation could fall sharply this year and todays BOE minutes will give us more insight to the sentiment of the MPC.
Overnight the final approval was placed on the US stimulus package of $787bn which is desperately hoped will kick start the global economy. The urgency of Obama to introduce this stimulus was justified as General Motors and Chrysler have requested another $21.6bn on top of the $17.4bn already received.
This caused a sharp sell off in equities- in particular the Dow as risk aversion kicked in.
The BoE minutes just released showed a vote of 8-1 in favour of cutting rates at the last meeting in Feb…with inflation still 1% above the target and a rallying outcry from ignored savers it will be interesting to see the next decision in March!
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, inflation, recession, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:16 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, February 17, 2009
The Euro finally breaks down through the 1.2700 support
This support level has held since early December against the US dollar.
The target going forward is now for a lower rate with the medium term outlook still towards 1.1500. This latest Euro weakness stemmed from renewed apprehension towards the economic outlook for Eastern Europe and a warning released by Moody's overnight that Western European Banks' rating would need to be downgraded as a result.
This provoked a new wave of risk aversion trading this morning in Asia with weakness seen not only in the Euro but also the AUD, NZD and other regional currencies.
The Yen, which has been a safe haven since the demise of the carry trade mentality, didn't benefit either as their own domestic woes appear finally to be catching Japan up (ie the collapse in Japanese economic activity - down nearly 13% y/y, the move to a deficit on trade and rising political risk with the PM's approval rating falling below 10% and the untimely departure of the Finance Minister following his ‘Rome adventure').
No data yesterday combined with the US holiday left us grasping for official comment and the officials didn't disappoint. The usual ECB rhetoric emerged with various members talking in a concerned way about the European economic situation and implying interest rate cuts to come.
The BoE Deputy Governor, Charles Bean, speaking at the National Union of Farmers Conference in Birmingham predicted that there was a 75% chance that the UK economy would contract by more than the 4% rate that was predicted by Mervyn King last week.
This comes amidst rising fears that data is about to show the UK entering a period of deflation. Today's release is expected to show that the RPI year-on-year figure has dropped to, or just below zero (expected to be -0.1%) and the CPI number, although less dramatic, will still show an easing from 3.1% down to 2.9%. This maintains the probability that the Government's target rate of 2% will be reached/breeched in the figures for March.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The target going forward is now for a lower rate with the medium term outlook still towards 1.1500. This latest Euro weakness stemmed from renewed apprehension towards the economic outlook for Eastern Europe and a warning released by Moody's overnight that Western European Banks' rating would need to be downgraded as a result.
This provoked a new wave of risk aversion trading this morning in Asia with weakness seen not only in the Euro but also the AUD, NZD and other regional currencies.
The Yen, which has been a safe haven since the demise of the carry trade mentality, didn't benefit either as their own domestic woes appear finally to be catching Japan up (ie the collapse in Japanese economic activity - down nearly 13% y/y, the move to a deficit on trade and rising political risk with the PM's approval rating falling below 10% and the untimely departure of the Finance Minister following his ‘Rome adventure').
No data yesterday combined with the US holiday left us grasping for official comment and the officials didn't disappoint. The usual ECB rhetoric emerged with various members talking in a concerned way about the European economic situation and implying interest rate cuts to come.
The BoE Deputy Governor, Charles Bean, speaking at the National Union of Farmers Conference in Birmingham predicted that there was a 75% chance that the UK economy would contract by more than the 4% rate that was predicted by Mervyn King last week.
This comes amidst rising fears that data is about to show the UK entering a period of deflation. Today's release is expected to show that the RPI year-on-year figure has dropped to, or just below zero (expected to be -0.1%) and the CPI number, although less dramatic, will still show an easing from 3.1% down to 2.9%. This maintains the probability that the Government's target rate of 2% will be reached/breeched in the figures for March.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, euro, recession, sub prime loans, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 7:25 PM 0 comments
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Monday, February 16, 2009
UK recession worse than first feared, Bank of England's deputy Governor warns
The UK has an odds on chance of suffering an even deeper recession than first feared, the Bank of England's deputy Governor, Charles Bean, has warned.
The Bank last week predicted a near 4 per cent year-on-year fall in output as the credit crunch tightens its grip on the wider economy.
But Charles Bean told an audience in Birmingham there was "roughly a three in four" chance of growth even weaker than the Bank's already-gloomy central projections.
Lingering woes in the banking sector and nations shunning free trade in favour of protecting their own industries could hinder a recovery, according to Mr Bean.
He told the National Farmers Union: "It is possible that efforts to restore the banking system may take longer to bear fruit, and that the adoption of protectionist measures abroad as the downturn deepens may slow the recovery."
Despite the "bleak" short-term prospects, the deputy Governor said interest rate cuts to a record low of 1 per cent, the sharp fall in the value of the pound and support for the banking sector gave reason for hope in the second half of 2009.
But he added that policymakers were working on the "missing bit of the toolbox" which would help protect the economy by placing tougher restrictions on banks' balance sheets.
"This could be, for instance, by making banks build up extra capital buffers or reserves in the good times, which can then be drawn on when times turn bad so obviating the need to cut back sharply on their lending.
"In this way, the real economy can be protected from the financial excesses that seem prone to recur."
The deputy Governor admitted that a "failure of imagination" had been in part to blame for the wider economic carnage caused by a debt-driven boom in property and asset prices.
He said "no one really foresaw the virulence with which the crisis would unfold", but argued that keeping interest rates at a higher level between 2004 and 2007 "would just have implied markedly higher growth and higher unemployment at an earlier stage".
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The Bank last week predicted a near 4 per cent year-on-year fall in output as the credit crunch tightens its grip on the wider economy.
But Charles Bean told an audience in Birmingham there was "roughly a three in four" chance of growth even weaker than the Bank's already-gloomy central projections.
Lingering woes in the banking sector and nations shunning free trade in favour of protecting their own industries could hinder a recovery, according to Mr Bean.
He told the National Farmers Union: "It is possible that efforts to restore the banking system may take longer to bear fruit, and that the adoption of protectionist measures abroad as the downturn deepens may slow the recovery."
Despite the "bleak" short-term prospects, the deputy Governor said interest rate cuts to a record low of 1 per cent, the sharp fall in the value of the pound and support for the banking sector gave reason for hope in the second half of 2009.
But he added that policymakers were working on the "missing bit of the toolbox" which would help protect the economy by placing tougher restrictions on banks' balance sheets.
"This could be, for instance, by making banks build up extra capital buffers or reserves in the good times, which can then be drawn on when times turn bad so obviating the need to cut back sharply on their lending.
"In this way, the real economy can be protected from the financial excesses that seem prone to recur."
The deputy Governor admitted that a "failure of imagination" had been in part to blame for the wider economic carnage caused by a debt-driven boom in property and asset prices.
He said "no one really foresaw the virulence with which the crisis would unfold", but argued that keeping interest rates at a higher level between 2004 and 2007 "would just have implied markedly higher growth and higher unemployment at an earlier stage".
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 7:03 PM 0 comments
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Friday, February 13, 2009
Where now for the UK?
Following another rollercoaster week in the currency markets we have seen the Pound rally and then submit its gains.
Today and tomorrow we have the G7 meeting in Rome and the recent weakness in the pound is expected to be a confrontational topic.
Following Wednesday's Bank Of England inflation report the expectation is that UK interest rates will be cut to or towards 0% mirroring that of the US and also that quantitative easing may be used to further stimulate the economy.
We witnessed a distinct sell off in the pound in the aftermath and this negativity is incensing European nations as their exporters suffer in favour of cheaper British goods.
Today we have seen GDP data from Germany showing a larger than expected contraction of 2.1% and following this we have seen EMU GDP contract by 1.5%- this is the deepest contraction on record and emphasizes today’s contraction in Germany with Spain, France & Italy also posting negative GDP.
This is worrying news from the Eurozone and there is little light at the end of the tunnel- GDP is expected to fall by 3% in 2009.
So we have deepening recessionary trends in the UK and the Eurozone…however in the US retail sales rose by a bullish 1% yesterday. The market was quick to play this down but nonetheless this is an unexpectedly strong number- does this suggest a glimmer of hope?
Today we have the Michigan consumer sentiment from the US- will this show a positive reading after the Obama feel good factor?
Looking at the market fluctuations we have understandably witnessed lots of volatility- this morning we have already seen early gains in the pound against the dollar and the euro.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Today and tomorrow we have the G7 meeting in Rome and the recent weakness in the pound is expected to be a confrontational topic.
Following Wednesday's Bank Of England inflation report the expectation is that UK interest rates will be cut to or towards 0% mirroring that of the US and also that quantitative easing may be used to further stimulate the economy.
We witnessed a distinct sell off in the pound in the aftermath and this negativity is incensing European nations as their exporters suffer in favour of cheaper British goods.
Today we have seen GDP data from Germany showing a larger than expected contraction of 2.1% and following this we have seen EMU GDP contract by 1.5%- this is the deepest contraction on record and emphasizes today’s contraction in Germany with Spain, France & Italy also posting negative GDP.
This is worrying news from the Eurozone and there is little light at the end of the tunnel- GDP is expected to fall by 3% in 2009.
So we have deepening recessionary trends in the UK and the Eurozone…however in the US retail sales rose by a bullish 1% yesterday. The market was quick to play this down but nonetheless this is an unexpectedly strong number- does this suggest a glimmer of hope?
Today we have the Michigan consumer sentiment from the US- will this show a positive reading after the Obama feel good factor?
Looking at the market fluctuations we have understandably witnessed lots of volatility- this morning we have already seen early gains in the pound against the dollar and the euro.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, Barack Obama, G7, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 7:40 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, February 12, 2009
GDP set to fall by 4% in early 2009
Lots of data yesterday in the UK, of particular interest was the Bank Of England inflation report which showed inflation at just 0.5% in two years.
This means more interest rate cuts and the ever increasing probability of quantitative easing. It seems that the Bank of England will try a plethora of measures to kick start the UK economy and bring inflation back into line.
The immediate impact of this was a sell off in sterling against the majors- sterling was not helped by employment data as the UK jobless figure rose to just under 2 million. Another hammer blow was the rhetoric by Mervyn King which stated that the UK economy is in deep recession and that GDP will fall by 4% in early 2009.
In other data from Canada- new home prices fell 0.1% which gave an annual increase of 0.4%- the lowest since 1997. In the US the trade deficit shrank by 4% in December as imports and exports fell as global trade shrinks.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
This means more interest rate cuts and the ever increasing probability of quantitative easing. It seems that the Bank of England will try a plethora of measures to kick start the UK economy and bring inflation back into line.
The immediate impact of this was a sell off in sterling against the majors- sterling was not helped by employment data as the UK jobless figure rose to just under 2 million. Another hammer blow was the rhetoric by Mervyn King which stated that the UK economy is in deep recession and that GDP will fall by 4% in early 2009.
In other data from Canada- new home prices fell 0.1% which gave an annual increase of 0.4%- the lowest since 1997. In the US the trade deficit shrank by 4% in December as imports and exports fell as global trade shrinks.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, inflation, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:01 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, February 10, 2009
UK BRC retail sales figures are reported eye-brow raisingly strong.
It has to be assumed that the deep discounting that was seen supporting the figures prior to Xmas has been continued going into the New Year and bargain-hunters remain resilient to the downturn.
The UK RICS house price survey was less optimistic with an average of only 3.3 properties sold per estate agent per month reported. The problem for the housing market seems less with demand (viewings were well up as people perceived that current property prices presented a good opportunity) but more with the provision of finance.
Yet again green shoots are floundering on the reluctance of Banks to provide cash.
Today is all about Government cash raising and the US economic assistance. In the UK we have the latest issue by the DMO. This time it is for a further £3.25 billion of the 4.5% 2019 gilt and again the market will watch for the measure of demand and the length of the price tail just to see how appetite is being maintained.
In the US we are scheduled to see the Treasury auction $32 billion of 3-year notes.
Nearer to home, the Euro was adversely affected by the Russian Banks' debt restructuring plan. The head of the Russian Association of Regional Banks said that the rescheduling of loans worth about $400 billion was under discussion.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The UK RICS house price survey was less optimistic with an average of only 3.3 properties sold per estate agent per month reported. The problem for the housing market seems less with demand (viewings were well up as people perceived that current property prices presented a good opportunity) but more with the provision of finance.
Yet again green shoots are floundering on the reluctance of Banks to provide cash.
Today is all about Government cash raising and the US economic assistance. In the UK we have the latest issue by the DMO. This time it is for a further £3.25 billion of the 4.5% 2019 gilt and again the market will watch for the measure of demand and the length of the price tail just to see how appetite is being maintained.
In the US we are scheduled to see the Treasury auction $32 billion of 3-year notes.
Nearer to home, the Euro was adversely affected by the Russian Banks' debt restructuring plan. The head of the Russian Association of Regional Banks said that the rescheduling of loans worth about $400 billion was under discussion.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, home loans, home-loans-rates-UK, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:15 AM 0 comments
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Monday, February 09, 2009
Alistair Darling faces ridicule over review into City bonuses
Alistair Darling was ridiculed last night after it emerged that the Treasury's new review into City bonuses will not be completed until the end of the year – by which stage some banks will have already partially paid out their 2009 rewards.
Sir David will not publish his preliminary conclusions until the autumn and the final report will only arrive at the end of the year. Although the Treasury said his work would "inform" the Budget, by the time the final report is produced some banks will have already started paying out bonuses for this year.
It follows news that the nationalised Royal Bank of Scotland is planning to pay its executives almost £1bn in bonuses for 2008 performance.
Although the Financial Services Authority pledged to overhaul pay awards last autumn, this review will be taken as a sign that the Government intends to go one step further and impose strict laws on City remuneration.
But, with newly-elected US President Barack Obama having already imposed a $500,000 cap on Wall Street salaries, the review was last night lambasted as "too little, too late".
"They look completely leaden-footed compared to the US," said senior Treasury select committee member Michael Fallon, the Conservative MP. "Obama has only been there two weeks and has already taken decisive action. We get yet another review."
Mr Darling acknowledged that the scale of bonuses awarded to staff at RBS, now 70pc public-owned, would be higher than he had hoped due to "contractual problems" but said that only staff not involved in "excessive risk taking" would be rewarded.
Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Vince Cable and Tory MP John Redwood said that RBS staff should forgo their 2008 bonuses, even where they are contractually-entitled.
Mr Redwood said: "Bonus payments are inappropriate in a bank which has just lost £28bn and taken £20bn of capital from taxpayers.."
Bonus payments will also infuriate bank shareholders. If paid in shares, they will dilute their stakes by a further 10pc, on top of the dilution after last year's recapitalisation.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Sir David will not publish his preliminary conclusions until the autumn and the final report will only arrive at the end of the year. Although the Treasury said his work would "inform" the Budget, by the time the final report is produced some banks will have already started paying out bonuses for this year.
It follows news that the nationalised Royal Bank of Scotland is planning to pay its executives almost £1bn in bonuses for 2008 performance.
Although the Financial Services Authority pledged to overhaul pay awards last autumn, this review will be taken as a sign that the Government intends to go one step further and impose strict laws on City remuneration.
But, with newly-elected US President Barack Obama having already imposed a $500,000 cap on Wall Street salaries, the review was last night lambasted as "too little, too late".
"They look completely leaden-footed compared to the US," said senior Treasury select committee member Michael Fallon, the Conservative MP. "Obama has only been there two weeks and has already taken decisive action. We get yet another review."
Mr Darling acknowledged that the scale of bonuses awarded to staff at RBS, now 70pc public-owned, would be higher than he had hoped due to "contractual problems" but said that only staff not involved in "excessive risk taking" would be rewarded.
Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Vince Cable and Tory MP John Redwood said that RBS staff should forgo their 2008 bonuses, even where they are contractually-entitled.
Mr Redwood said: "Bonus payments are inappropriate in a bank which has just lost £28bn and taken £20bn of capital from taxpayers.."
Bonus payments will also infuriate bank shareholders. If paid in shares, they will dilute their stakes by a further 10pc, on top of the dilution after last year's recapitalisation.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:38 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, February 03, 2009
It snow laughing matter
With the Met Office predicting more white stuff to come later in the week, falling on top of the ice rink that used to be roads and pavements.
At least most trains seem to be running and the majority of desks in the City will be manned (and womanned) today.
Yesterday was very thin on volume and news but the downgrading of Barclays by Moody's, the weakness of the UK data that was forthcoming and continued expectation of a widening interest rate differential between Sterling and Euro were reasons enough to send Sterling off its Friday highs.
Today's DMO auction of GBP 3.75 billion of short dated gilts will again be awaited with concern that its reception might not be as healthy as the Treasury would like.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
At least most trains seem to be running and the majority of desks in the City will be manned (and womanned) today.
Yesterday was very thin on volume and news but the downgrading of Barclays by Moody's, the weakness of the UK data that was forthcoming and continued expectation of a widening interest rate differential between Sterling and Euro were reasons enough to send Sterling off its Friday highs.
Today's DMO auction of GBP 3.75 billion of short dated gilts will again be awaited with concern that its reception might not be as healthy as the Treasury would like.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:12 AM 0 comments
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Monday, February 02, 2009
Snows stops play in London
It's a very subdued start to the week with the Capital largely cut off by the this morning's huge snow dump.
Trading rooms are likely to be half staffed at best so expect a brief flurry of activity this morning followed by an early break for home.
We have seen Sterling come off this morning, largely it seems on Sunday's report from Moody's that they were going to cut Barclays' long term rating by 2 notches to Aa3.
Although this is only on line with the earlier move by Fitch, Far East traders took it as a reason to take profits on recent Sterling gains.
This week's focus will be on the rate decisions from the MPC and the ECB, both on Thursday.
Recent comment from ECB members, especially M Trichet, casts some doubt on a cut materialising this time in Euro rates and although there is still the expectation that we will see a further 50 basis points cut in UK rates, the latest minutes from their January meeting suggests that a good number of the members are partial to holding rates where they are and using other means as an economic stimulant.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Trading rooms are likely to be half staffed at best so expect a brief flurry of activity this morning followed by an early break for home.
We have seen Sterling come off this morning, largely it seems on Sunday's report from Moody's that they were going to cut Barclays' long term rating by 2 notches to Aa3.
Although this is only on line with the earlier move by Fitch, Far East traders took it as a reason to take profits on recent Sterling gains.
This week's focus will be on the rate decisions from the MPC and the ECB, both on Thursday.
Recent comment from ECB members, especially M Trichet, casts some doubt on a cut materialising this time in Euro rates and although there is still the expectation that we will see a further 50 basis points cut in UK rates, the latest minutes from their January meeting suggests that a good number of the members are partial to holding rates where they are and using other means as an economic stimulant.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:48 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Taxpayers bailout failures
All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting today at 7.15pm this evening GMT.
With the rate already at 0-0.25% the focus will not be on whether they will or won't cut (no change is expected) but the wording of any statement releases. It is likely that the focus will shift to the quantitive easing measures that the Fed could use to stimulate the economy.
Particular reference is likely to be made to the three key tools Mr Bernanke outlined in his speech in London on 13 January: credit easing, lending for financial institutions and buying of longer term assets.
It is thought that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) may manage a so-called "bad bank" that the Obama administration is likely to set up in an effort to help ailing US banks. The aim is to buy up poor assets on banks' balance sheets.
Plans are expected to be announced early next week. This will, no doubt, place pressure on the UK to come out with a similar package.
Yesterday saw Mandelson announce a £2.3bn support package for the UK's ailing car industry. This financial support will be given on a case by case basis to support training schemes for employees, help out car part suppliers and give grants for ultra low carbon car research and development.
The bailout plans that are being announced will create more reasons for free-market economists to voice their concerns and begs the question coined on the front page of a city paper this morning: "First Banks, Now Cars, What next?"
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
With the rate already at 0-0.25% the focus will not be on whether they will or won't cut (no change is expected) but the wording of any statement releases. It is likely that the focus will shift to the quantitive easing measures that the Fed could use to stimulate the economy.
Particular reference is likely to be made to the three key tools Mr Bernanke outlined in his speech in London on 13 January: credit easing, lending for financial institutions and buying of longer term assets.
It is thought that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) may manage a so-called "bad bank" that the Obama administration is likely to set up in an effort to help ailing US banks. The aim is to buy up poor assets on banks' balance sheets.
Plans are expected to be announced early next week. This will, no doubt, place pressure on the UK to come out with a similar package.
Yesterday saw Mandelson announce a £2.3bn support package for the UK's ailing car industry. This financial support will be given on a case by case basis to support training schemes for employees, help out car part suppliers and give grants for ultra low carbon car research and development.
The bailout plans that are being announced will create more reasons for free-market economists to voice their concerns and begs the question coined on the front page of a city paper this morning: "First Banks, Now Cars, What next?"
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: falling interest rates, FOMC, interest rates, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:45 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Suddenly global stock markets have gone all bullish
With strong performances from Europe, Wall Street and Japan - all for differing reasons.
The bounce in Financial stocks in London (led by Barclays - when was the last time we saw a Bank share leap nearly 75% in value on a single day?) saw Europe take the lead and give Wall Street a boost on opening. US stocks' recent roller-coaster trading ended at a high with strong support when Pfizer's announced its final plans for their $68 billion takeover of Wyeth.
The rally was underpinned by strong economic data with an unexpected increase in existing US home sales. These factors were just enough to offset further grim corporate news, including a very glum report from Caterpillar (which included an announced 20,000 job losses).
The Nikkei continued the trend this morning though with the index showing a near 5% advance, aided by news the Japanese government is to offer funds to firms whose cash raising ability has been hit by market dislocations.
Data as a whole was sparse again yesterday and attention was drawn to the Economic Forum in Davos. The fact that none of the A-Team from the US (the new President included) will be present - they are too busy with domestic issues - devalues the whole event somewhat.
Expect the participants who are there to attempt to compensate for this by being more high-profile in both opinion and comment.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The bounce in Financial stocks in London (led by Barclays - when was the last time we saw a Bank share leap nearly 75% in value on a single day?) saw Europe take the lead and give Wall Street a boost on opening. US stocks' recent roller-coaster trading ended at a high with strong support when Pfizer's announced its final plans for their $68 billion takeover of Wyeth.
The rally was underpinned by strong economic data with an unexpected increase in existing US home sales. These factors were just enough to offset further grim corporate news, including a very glum report from Caterpillar (which included an announced 20,000 job losses).
The Nikkei continued the trend this morning though with the index showing a near 5% advance, aided by news the Japanese government is to offer funds to firms whose cash raising ability has been hit by market dislocations.
Data as a whole was sparse again yesterday and attention was drawn to the Economic Forum in Davos. The fact that none of the A-Team from the US (the new President included) will be present - they are too busy with domestic issues - devalues the whole event somewhat.
Expect the participants who are there to attempt to compensate for this by being more high-profile in both opinion and comment.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, credit crunch, interest rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:53 AM 0 comments
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Monday, January 26, 2009
Chinese New Year Holiday
Plus today's Australia Day Bank Holiday heralds a very thin Far Eastern market for the next 5 days.
Besides China being off all week, there are holidays in Hongkong (next 3 days) plus Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia (2 days). Add this to the usual thinning of markets towards month end and we are left with a stuttering start to the trading day all week long.
Continued weak economic news still weighs heavily upon both markets and general sentiment with press opinion still very gloomy on the near-term developments. We saw another US bank go under on Saturday, the 3rd this month just as President Obama is considering another massive injection of cash into America's beleaguered banking system. This would be on top of the existing $825 billion package that Obama's senior aides are currently working on.
In the UK, Alistair Darling is bemoaning the recent moves by the markets in response to the Bank rescue package established last week, saying that the City has missed crucial details and that the package will work. Toys and pram come to mind.
The out-going MPC arch-dove, Blanchflower was also in print over the weekend doing what he does best, talking UK interest rates lower. He was however, more bullish than most in his medium term assessment for the UK with a fairly upbeat prognosis as opposed to the outlook for the Eurozone.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Besides China being off all week, there are holidays in Hongkong (next 3 days) plus Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia (2 days). Add this to the usual thinning of markets towards month end and we are left with a stuttering start to the trading day all week long.
Continued weak economic news still weighs heavily upon both markets and general sentiment with press opinion still very gloomy on the near-term developments. We saw another US bank go under on Saturday, the 3rd this month just as President Obama is considering another massive injection of cash into America's beleaguered banking system. This would be on top of the existing $825 billion package that Obama's senior aides are currently working on.
In the UK, Alistair Darling is bemoaning the recent moves by the markets in response to the Bank rescue package established last week, saying that the City has missed crucial details and that the package will work. Toys and pram come to mind.
The out-going MPC arch-dove, Blanchflower was also in print over the weekend doing what he does best, talking UK interest rates lower. He was however, more bullish than most in his medium term assessment for the UK with a fairly upbeat prognosis as opposed to the outlook for the Eurozone.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: falling interest rates, home loans, interest rates, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 1:32 PM 0 comments
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Friday, January 23, 2009
The week so far has been a data desert
Today looks no different with just December Retail Sales and the 4th Qtr GDP figures, both from the UK.
In the capital markets, the Gilt auction from the DMO went OK (a slightly lower bid ratio than the last time but the same bid tail).
Prices continued to fall though with yields rising and these moves were mirrored in the US and German markets. In the Money Markets, interest rates in Sterling and Euro continued to edge lower although the ECB continues to push a hawkish line, making two things clear to the markets - it's not planning any more big moves, and in fact the scope to cut rates further is limited.
The ECB Head, M. Trichet, for instance, said a correction in growth was typical following buoyant periods and that he remained hopeful economies would be back in 'positive terrain' in 2010. In other words, he sounded very much like he was trying to shift the emphasis away from near term downward risks to growth and further ahead to the recovery phase.
Bini-Smaghi spoke directly on rates, suggesting that since there isn't a serious risk of deflation, it made no sense to drop rates to zero. He said it is important not to create another credit bubble through current policy actions - there is little room to cut nominal interest rates below 2%, he said.
This morning's data from the EU, the Manufacturing & Service Composite PMI figures, were reported slightly better than had been anticipated although not enough to reverse the recent Euro decline.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
In the capital markets, the Gilt auction from the DMO went OK (a slightly lower bid ratio than the last time but the same bid tail).
Prices continued to fall though with yields rising and these moves were mirrored in the US and German markets. In the Money Markets, interest rates in Sterling and Euro continued to edge lower although the ECB continues to push a hawkish line, making two things clear to the markets - it's not planning any more big moves, and in fact the scope to cut rates further is limited.
The ECB Head, M. Trichet, for instance, said a correction in growth was typical following buoyant periods and that he remained hopeful economies would be back in 'positive terrain' in 2010. In other words, he sounded very much like he was trying to shift the emphasis away from near term downward risks to growth and further ahead to the recovery phase.
Bini-Smaghi spoke directly on rates, suggesting that since there isn't a serious risk of deflation, it made no sense to drop rates to zero. He said it is important not to create another credit bubble through current policy actions - there is little room to cut nominal interest rates below 2%, he said.
This morning's data from the EU, the Manufacturing & Service Composite PMI figures, were reported slightly better than had been anticipated although not enough to reverse the recent Euro decline.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, euro, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 1:50 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, January 22, 2009
The UK provided most interest yesterday
With The Minutes from January's MPC meeting, unemployment numbers and the PSNCR data ensuring that Sterling remained in focus for most of the day.
Indeed it wasn't until 3.00pm, when the witching hour for option expiry arrived, that we saw the market shift its attention away from the Pound.
Data from the UK was again on the weak side of awful. Unemployment was higher, nigh on touching, or just above, 2 million depending upon which basis you want to believe and predictions for future trends were confirmed as still heading the wrong way.
The PSNCR was predicted to be huge (largely due to the £20 billion required for the purchase of RBS shares being included) but the outcome was still £4 billion + higher than the worst estimates.
The debt balloon continues to inflate yet still the DMO maintain that raising the sort of sums required to finance UK plc via Gilts issuance presents no problem.
It appears that the MPC cut rates by 0.5% not because they felt it was necessary or would do any good but because the Market was expecting it and the value of Sterling was too fragile not to appease the Market. Interesting
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Indeed it wasn't until 3.00pm, when the witching hour for option expiry arrived, that we saw the market shift its attention away from the Pound.
Data from the UK was again on the weak side of awful. Unemployment was higher, nigh on touching, or just above, 2 million depending upon which basis you want to believe and predictions for future trends were confirmed as still heading the wrong way.
The PSNCR was predicted to be huge (largely due to the £20 billion required for the purchase of RBS shares being included) but the outcome was still £4 billion + higher than the worst estimates.
The debt balloon continues to inflate yet still the DMO maintain that raising the sort of sums required to finance UK plc via Gilts issuance presents no problem.
It appears that the MPC cut rates by 0.5% not because they felt it was necessary or would do any good but because the Market was expecting it and the value of Sterling was too fragile not to appease the Market. Interesting
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:44 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, January 21, 2009
The UK is really getting some bad press
And not only the Teenage Scribblers (remember them) but also from experts who have been around a long time and are deemed to know what they are talking about - for most of the time at least.
Today we have Jim Rogers, who was co-founder with George Soros of their Quantum Hedge Fund, advising investors to get rid of everything Sterling related (including currency) and invest elsewhere.
Now whether it was as a direct result or whether it was just coincidence who knows but cable went through yesterday continuously making 7 ½ year lows and its value against the Euro also dipped sharply.
Gilt futures hit a 1-month low and yields rose again as concern over the UK's ballooning debt continued to grow. Outlook for the UK is cloudy to say the least and it is very apparent that, by their recent actions, the labour Government would love to draw a line under the ongoing disaster that is the UK Banking system.
This would allow them to concentrate on trying to revive the economy - as evidenced by the content of Mervyn King's speech last night as MPC To Prepare For Unconventional Policy Steps. Such steps to boost broad money, Liquidity, Credit etc
All they need is a brief respite in order to put the plan into action. Sterling is suffering on the delay.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Today we have Jim Rogers, who was co-founder with George Soros of their Quantum Hedge Fund, advising investors to get rid of everything Sterling related (including currency) and invest elsewhere.
Now whether it was as a direct result or whether it was just coincidence who knows but cable went through yesterday continuously making 7 ½ year lows and its value against the Euro also dipped sharply.
Gilt futures hit a 1-month low and yields rose again as concern over the UK's ballooning debt continued to grow. Outlook for the UK is cloudy to say the least and it is very apparent that, by their recent actions, the labour Government would love to draw a line under the ongoing disaster that is the UK Banking system.
This would allow them to concentrate on trying to revive the economy - as evidenced by the content of Mervyn King's speech last night as MPC To Prepare For Unconventional Policy Steps. Such steps to boost broad money, Liquidity, Credit etc
All they need is a brief respite in order to put the plan into action. Sterling is suffering on the delay.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: Bank of England, sub prime loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 2:34 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Well the Good News is that there is no news.
Because of the Martin Luther King Day holiday yesterday, there was no US data out and Wall street was not open. Other than that we are struggling for positives.
The UK Government's bail-out plan for Banks - Part II, despite initially being greeted with optimism, soon adopted the role of the mill-stone, dragging equities and Sterling lower plus pushing Gilt yields up.
This despite the feeling that the MPC will cut rates at their February meeting and/or the March one as well. Expect yields on Gilts to drop through the 3% barrier soon and Sterling to slip further as the market realises that the UK economy is still slipping fast and the minutes to be released tomorrow from the MPC promise further rate cuts to come.
Obama's inauguration will be the focus again today and despite the fact that he has yet to adopt the mantle of power, the weight of expectation on his shoulders has continued to grow.
With every passing day the turn round of the US economy becomes more and more vital and accordingly the $ has maintained its status as the best of a bad bunch on the back of hopes of a recovery plus investment in gold.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The UK Government's bail-out plan for Banks - Part II, despite initially being greeted with optimism, soon adopted the role of the mill-stone, dragging equities and Sterling lower plus pushing Gilt yields up.
This despite the feeling that the MPC will cut rates at their February meeting and/or the March one as well. Expect yields on Gilts to drop through the 3% barrier soon and Sterling to slip further as the market realises that the UK economy is still slipping fast and the minutes to be released tomorrow from the MPC promise further rate cuts to come.
Obama's inauguration will be the focus again today and despite the fact that he has yet to adopt the mantle of power, the weight of expectation on his shoulders has continued to grow.
With every passing day the turn round of the US economy becomes more and more vital and accordingly the $ has maintained its status as the best of a bad bunch on the back of hopes of a recovery plus investment in gold.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, credit crunch, Gold, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:51 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, December 09, 2008
British retail sales fell at their sharpest annual pace in more than three years
In November, the BRC survey showed on Tuesday in a grim portent of the all important Christmas shopping season. Sales fell 2.6% y/y in November, the sharpest drop since the Easter influenced April 2005. Not a good sign.
This morning Loan Calculator was trying to be a bit positive following the rise in house buyer interest shown in yesterday's RICS survey. Admittedly, the actual number of sales slumped to a new 30-year low but at least the interest in property was on the increase.
This, added to the further sharp declines in inflationary pressures from easier Producer Input Prices (down 3.3% in November alone for a 12-month 7.5% rise) put the skids under Sterling - especially versus the Euro where we established a new all time low. Other than that, yesterday was a bit thin on data so we look to today's offerings for a bit of stimulus.
We have important statistics from Germany and the EU this morning as well as further housing and trade data from the UK. On top of that, there are several Central Bankers speaking on their various economies and the expectation that Canada will cut their interest rates at their meeting this afternoon.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
This morning Loan Calculator was trying to be a bit positive following the rise in house buyer interest shown in yesterday's RICS survey. Admittedly, the actual number of sales slumped to a new 30-year low but at least the interest in property was on the increase.
This, added to the further sharp declines in inflationary pressures from easier Producer Input Prices (down 3.3% in November alone for a 12-month 7.5% rise) put the skids under Sterling - especially versus the Euro where we established a new all time low. Other than that, yesterday was a bit thin on data so we look to today's offerings for a bit of stimulus.
We have important statistics from Germany and the EU this morning as well as further housing and trade data from the UK. On top of that, there are several Central Bankers speaking on their various economies and the expectation that Canada will cut their interest rates at their meeting this afternoon.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:51 PM 0 comments
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Monday, December 08, 2008
Are we nearing the trough of the current cycle?
Only time will tell, but there are increased mutterings that data for the 4th Qtr of 2008 might prove to be as bad as its going to get.
With the sharp falls in GDP forecasts for the âindustrial nations', accompanying massive rises in unemployment, the outlook still looks grim. All the negatives however are starting to be countered by positive moves from the Governments with regards to fiscal stimulus in conjunction with the already seen, monetary easing.
The US, Canada and UK are all intent on kick-starting their economies through good-sized packages. The almost agreed bailout of the Big 3 US car manufacturers goes towards proving this point.
Only the Eurozone appear to be dragging their collective feet and therefore it will be said region that will recover more slowly than the rest through a continued lack of demand. Even the VERY bad news is having less of an effect on markets.
The non-farm payroll numbers from the US on Friday were horrifically large with the figure coming in much, much higher than market consensus. Did this pull away the rug from beneath the Dollar?
Well not in the way that it would have done in years gone by. It shows that investors and traders are now fully braced for the severe recession and that tolerance for bad news is now far greater than has been seen up to now.
Looking ahead this week, top-tier data is lacking but several speeches by Fed Reserve members will be in focus as the FOMC meets next week. The Fed have signalled in the past that there is no floor for the Fed Funds rate and discussions over quantitative easing will likely re-emerge.
Elsewhere, the German ZEW survey tomorrow looks to be the highlight with the numbers expected to reinforce the opinion that the German and hence the Eurozone economies have further to decline before any sign of the green shoots of recovery.
From the UK, economic data is almost entirely focused on tomorrow when we get the BRC Retail monitor, trade numbers and industrial production.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
With the sharp falls in GDP forecasts for the âindustrial nations', accompanying massive rises in unemployment, the outlook still looks grim. All the negatives however are starting to be countered by positive moves from the Governments with regards to fiscal stimulus in conjunction with the already seen, monetary easing.
The US, Canada and UK are all intent on kick-starting their economies through good-sized packages. The almost agreed bailout of the Big 3 US car manufacturers goes towards proving this point.
Only the Eurozone appear to be dragging their collective feet and therefore it will be said region that will recover more slowly than the rest through a continued lack of demand. Even the VERY bad news is having less of an effect on markets.
The non-farm payroll numbers from the US on Friday were horrifically large with the figure coming in much, much higher than market consensus. Did this pull away the rug from beneath the Dollar?
Well not in the way that it would have done in years gone by. It shows that investors and traders are now fully braced for the severe recession and that tolerance for bad news is now far greater than has been seen up to now.
Looking ahead this week, top-tier data is lacking but several speeches by Fed Reserve members will be in focus as the FOMC meets next week. The Fed have signalled in the past that there is no floor for the Fed Funds rate and discussions over quantitative easing will likely re-emerge.
Elsewhere, the German ZEW survey tomorrow looks to be the highlight with the numbers expected to reinforce the opinion that the German and hence the Eurozone economies have further to decline before any sign of the green shoots of recovery.
From the UK, economic data is almost entirely focused on tomorrow when we get the BRC Retail monitor, trade numbers and industrial production.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:45 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Lots of data and comment out yesterday- and it was all bad
Where does Loans Calculators start? Well, following the recent positive trend in consumer confidence (which, as pointed out in previous posts, is seemingly just on the back of lower oil and petrol prices) the market was jolted back to the dreadful reality of the manufacturing and retail sectors with very weak data and further job losses.
Concern over the immediately outlook for UK plc was reignited following the release of the CIPS/Markit manufacturing survey yesterday morning. The number was expected to be bad but the reality was worse with the headline number reported at its lowest level since 1992 and indicating that industry's output and orders are falling at their fastest rate since January of that year. This in turn, triggering widespread job losses.
The exchange market took the news badly and proceeded to dump Sterling back through the previous hard won support levels of 1.5020 and 1.2000, with the moves lower accelerating through the day so that by the close, cable had fallen by its largest margin since that day in 1992 when Sterling left the ERM.
The PMI survey from the Eurozone showing that manufacturing in the region was at its weakest for a decade gave no respite and the release, later in the day, from the Institute of Supply Management in the US suggesting that the economy in the States is in its worst position since the recession was also ignored by the exchange market.
Stock Markets caved in and Sovereign Debt yields plunged as investors rushed out of vulnerable equities and headed for the relative of security of US Treasuries and Gilts.
Money Markets were comparatively less volatile ahead of the perceived rate cutting extravaganza this week. Estimates for the sizes of cut by the BoE and the ECB grew during the day however and increased further overnight following the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut their own rates by a further massive 100 basis points to 4.25%.
Calls this morning are for the MPC to cut by a full 1.50% and the ECB to go by at least 0.75%. It is going to make for a nervous couple of days for holders of Sterling or Sterling based investments.
The Fed Chairman, yesterday evening, also aired his views on the current condition of the US economy and his prognosis was not good. Not terminal but not good. He basically said that things would get worse from here before any sort of improvement by the end of 2009.
He as near as possible promised that US rates would be cut to an unprecedented low of under 1% at their meeting on the 16th Dec and also looked to appease concerns that the Fed were running out of ideas to help the ailing patient. As stated above, Wall Street took fright, the Dollar strengthened.
This sort of outlook caused consternation in the commodity markets as renewed demand was deemed a long way off. Gold plummeted back to the $760 level and oil also fell, below the technically important support $50 per barrel. The price of WTI this morning is a little below $48.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Concern over the immediately outlook for UK plc was reignited following the release of the CIPS/Markit manufacturing survey yesterday morning. The number was expected to be bad but the reality was worse with the headline number reported at its lowest level since 1992 and indicating that industry's output and orders are falling at their fastest rate since January of that year. This in turn, triggering widespread job losses.
The exchange market took the news badly and proceeded to dump Sterling back through the previous hard won support levels of 1.5020 and 1.2000, with the moves lower accelerating through the day so that by the close, cable had fallen by its largest margin since that day in 1992 when Sterling left the ERM.
The PMI survey from the Eurozone showing that manufacturing in the region was at its weakest for a decade gave no respite and the release, later in the day, from the Institute of Supply Management in the US suggesting that the economy in the States is in its worst position since the recession was also ignored by the exchange market.
Stock Markets caved in and Sovereign Debt yields plunged as investors rushed out of vulnerable equities and headed for the relative of security of US Treasuries and Gilts.
Money Markets were comparatively less volatile ahead of the perceived rate cutting extravaganza this week. Estimates for the sizes of cut by the BoE and the ECB grew during the day however and increased further overnight following the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut their own rates by a further massive 100 basis points to 4.25%.
Calls this morning are for the MPC to cut by a full 1.50% and the ECB to go by at least 0.75%. It is going to make for a nervous couple of days for holders of Sterling or Sterling based investments.
The Fed Chairman, yesterday evening, also aired his views on the current condition of the US economy and his prognosis was not good. Not terminal but not good. He basically said that things would get worse from here before any sort of improvement by the end of 2009.
He as near as possible promised that US rates would be cut to an unprecedented low of under 1% at their meeting on the 16th Dec and also looked to appease concerns that the Fed were running out of ideas to help the ailing patient. As stated above, Wall Street took fright, the Dollar strengthened.
This sort of outlook caused consternation in the commodity markets as renewed demand was deemed a long way off. Gold plummeted back to the $760 level and oil also fell, below the technically important support $50 per barrel. The price of WTI this morning is a little below $48.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: falling interest rates, Loan calculator, Oil, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:25 PM 0 comments
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Thursday, November 27, 2008
Thanksgiving Day Holiday in the US
US holiday will leave the markets desperately thin this afternoon with complete closure of their fixed interest and equity markets plus there being no Dollar cash settlement today.
Yesterday saw a bit of an up and down day on the stock markets with the US indices ending higher at the close on bargain hunting for technology and energy stocks. this has filtered through to a better opening in European bourses and will hopefully hold for the rest of the week.
A bit of positive Corporate news would help but at present, that doesn't seem to be on the cards. The sad demise of Woolworths and MFI along with the less than buoyant economic data lend themselves to this being another of those false dawns.
Yesterday's economic data from Europe, UK and the US all failed to inspire and although the numbers came in as expected, they did sound a bit like Frankie Howard's soothsayer with her Woe, Woe and Thrice Woe'.
GDP figures affirmed, as if we needed it, that the UK and US are deep in recession and there is concern that the measures that have been taken by Governments in all areas to combat the downturn might take an overly long time to trickle through. Pressure will be on to make sure that the initiatives are effective.
The weak US data had an adverse effect on the return on US Treasury Bills with yields hitting 50-year lows. The yield on the 10-year note dropped to its lowest ever level, down 0.13% to 2.98%.
As reported yesterday, China cut rates savagely, the largest reduction in 11-years, in reaction to the rapidly falling growth rate in the country. Even though the economy is still growing at about 7.5% per annum, this level of growth is the minimum required increase for the country to effectively âstand still'. The Chinese leaders are obviously very concerned. Metal prices jumped on the back of the cut.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Yesterday saw a bit of an up and down day on the stock markets with the US indices ending higher at the close on bargain hunting for technology and energy stocks. this has filtered through to a better opening in European bourses and will hopefully hold for the rest of the week.
A bit of positive Corporate news would help but at present, that doesn't seem to be on the cards. The sad demise of Woolworths and MFI along with the less than buoyant economic data lend themselves to this being another of those false dawns.
Yesterday's economic data from Europe, UK and the US all failed to inspire and although the numbers came in as expected, they did sound a bit like Frankie Howard's soothsayer with her Woe, Woe and Thrice Woe'.
GDP figures affirmed, as if we needed it, that the UK and US are deep in recession and there is concern that the measures that have been taken by Governments in all areas to combat the downturn might take an overly long time to trickle through. Pressure will be on to make sure that the initiatives are effective.
The weak US data had an adverse effect on the return on US Treasury Bills with yields hitting 50-year lows. The yield on the 10-year note dropped to its lowest ever level, down 0.13% to 2.98%.
As reported yesterday, China cut rates savagely, the largest reduction in 11-years, in reaction to the rapidly falling growth rate in the country. Even though the economy is still growing at about 7.5% per annum, this level of growth is the minimum required increase for the country to effectively âstand still'. The Chinese leaders are obviously very concerned. Metal prices jumped on the back of the cut.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: china, consolidate debt loans, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:25 AM 0 comments
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Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Loan calculators don't feel any better off
The Chancellor duly delivered his pre-Budget Statement to an enthralled world and largely produced what had been anticipated.
The known factors are worrying enough, the unknown components of the cure will keep economists employed for years to come, pontificating the why's and the wherefore's. An interesting quote within an article in the Times this morning attributed to JK Galbraith; there are 2 types of economists, those who don't know what will happen and those who don't know they don't know'. Over the next few months/years, there will be plenty of the latter.
Anyway, both Sterling and the Stock Market ended higher; more on a weaker $ and on relief over the Citicorp rescue than a passion for all things UK related but was not well received by the Gilt market which in turn pushed up the price of hedging against losses on labour government bonds (CDS's on gilts).
In other words, the UK as an investment was perceived to be less secure at the end of the day than it had been at opening.
Yesterday saw the November German IFO index of the business climate dive off once more to a cyclical low of 85.8 â the record low was back in October 1982 at 76.7. This however marks the starting point for a lurch lower in statistics from both Germany and the Eurozone.
Today's 3rd Qtr German GDP release will undoubtedly be the portent for sharply lower 4th Qtr figures to come. From this we can see that the latest news is decidedly not good. The economy is spiralling downward towards zero with the pace of price increases following the same road.
This is a good scenario for bonds but bad for everything else. We have 3rd Qtr GDP for the US, this afternoon and the same for the UK tomorrow. A great chance for a comparison of the 3 economies.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The known factors are worrying enough, the unknown components of the cure will keep economists employed for years to come, pontificating the why's and the wherefore's. An interesting quote within an article in the Times this morning attributed to JK Galbraith; there are 2 types of economists, those who don't know what will happen and those who don't know they don't know'. Over the next few months/years, there will be plenty of the latter.
Anyway, both Sterling and the Stock Market ended higher; more on a weaker $ and on relief over the Citicorp rescue than a passion for all things UK related but was not well received by the Gilt market which in turn pushed up the price of hedging against losses on labour government bonds (CDS's on gilts).
In other words, the UK as an investment was perceived to be less secure at the end of the day than it had been at opening.
Yesterday saw the November German IFO index of the business climate dive off once more to a cyclical low of 85.8 â the record low was back in October 1982 at 76.7. This however marks the starting point for a lurch lower in statistics from both Germany and the Eurozone.
Today's 3rd Qtr German GDP release will undoubtedly be the portent for sharply lower 4th Qtr figures to come. From this we can see that the latest news is decidedly not good. The economy is spiralling downward towards zero with the pace of price increases following the same road.
This is a good scenario for bonds but bad for everything else. We have 3rd Qtr GDP for the US, this afternoon and the same for the UK tomorrow. A great chance for a comparison of the 3 economies.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, Loan calculator, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 11:38 AM 0 comments
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Monday, November 24, 2008
Fiscal stimulus starts here
For those of you who have been away on a desert island for the past few weeks, today sees the UK Chancellor unveil his Kick Start for the economy thinly disguised as his pre-Budget Statement.
It is difficult to ascertain just how much of the recent press coverage is actual and how much is speculative. Suffice to say that whatever emerges will be the blueprint for the economy for the next couple of years and the analysis of the measures will determine the immediate direction for Sterling on the exchanges.
The one factor that is a cast iron certainty is that the BoE/MPC will be cutting rates further in December. The statement to Parliament commences at 3.30 this afternoon.
Also on interest rates. The ECB President said on Friday that the ECB could cut interest rates again at their meeting next month. These comments were echoed by 2 other high powered members of the Central Bank but it wasn't until ECB Director and Chief Economist Weber said the same thing later in the day, that anyone took any notice.
He talked off a remarkable decline in inflationary pressures and deteriorating economic prospects and culminated by stating that the Central Bank had leeway for further easing, if necessary.. it still looks as though we will see Euro interest rates 75 to 100 bp lower by the spring.
Over the weekend we have seen further bail-outs, cash raising and capital increases in the Banking Sector. The most significant was the US Government ârescue' of Citigroup Inc, the second largest bank in the States, to the tune of $300 billion.
After last weeks continued weakening of the sector, this has come as a welcome reprieve with Banking stocks surging on the European bourses first thing. From the UK, Standard Chartered decided to raise £1.8 billion via a cash call to boost its capital base probably more to do with that they could rather than that they needed to.
Meanwhile in Ireland, the Irish Government has agreed to take part in a Euro 3 billion bail out of Bank of Ireland that will be led by private equity probably of US origin.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
It is difficult to ascertain just how much of the recent press coverage is actual and how much is speculative. Suffice to say that whatever emerges will be the blueprint for the economy for the next couple of years and the analysis of the measures will determine the immediate direction for Sterling on the exchanges.
The one factor that is a cast iron certainty is that the BoE/MPC will be cutting rates further in December. The statement to Parliament commences at 3.30 this afternoon.
Also on interest rates. The ECB President said on Friday that the ECB could cut interest rates again at their meeting next month. These comments were echoed by 2 other high powered members of the Central Bank but it wasn't until ECB Director and Chief Economist Weber said the same thing later in the day, that anyone took any notice.
He talked off a remarkable decline in inflationary pressures and deteriorating economic prospects and culminated by stating that the Central Bank had leeway for further easing, if necessary.. it still looks as though we will see Euro interest rates 75 to 100 bp lower by the spring.
Over the weekend we have seen further bail-outs, cash raising and capital increases in the Banking Sector. The most significant was the US Government ârescue' of Citigroup Inc, the second largest bank in the States, to the tune of $300 billion.
After last weeks continued weakening of the sector, this has come as a welcome reprieve with Banking stocks surging on the European bourses first thing. From the UK, Standard Chartered decided to raise £1.8 billion via a cash call to boost its capital base probably more to do with that they could rather than that they needed to.
Meanwhile in Ireland, the Irish Government has agreed to take part in a Euro 3 billion bail out of Bank of Ireland that will be led by private equity probably of US origin.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: credit crunch, ECB, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:09 AM 0 comments
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Friday, November 21, 2008
The lull before next week's storm
The reaction to the combination of yesterday's UK data and US rate moves was baffling to say the least.
One would have assumed that the combination of much better than expected UK retail sales figures (a fall of 0.1% against expectations of a 0.8% drop) and a sharp drop in US Treasury yields might have given cable a bit of a leg up enabling it to hold above the important 1.5030 level.
As it happens, the total opposite occurred, with Sterling losing ground against all the majors and one must conclude that it is concern about i) the UK economy ii) the continued move for sharply lower UK interest rates iii) the UK Government's exchange rate policy.
There are strong negatives associated with all three factors and so, ahead of Mr Darling's pre-budget statement on Monday, we are likely to see Sterling vulnerable to the downside.
Sterling LIBOR rates continue their orderly march lower with rates opening another 4-5 basis points lower than yesterday's opening levels. This steady decline must tail off as we approach the next MPC meeting but with expectations of (at least) a 0.50% cut to be announced on the 4th December, rates will likely resume the move lower after that date.
I would anticipate seeing the yield curve steepen unless the Chancellor introduces any of the dreaded âquantitative measures' in his statement to try and force rates lower across the spectrum.
Developments and data from the US yesterday continued to weigh upon both the currency and the stock market with appalling jobs data and ongoing concerns over the future of the US automotive industry the major factors.
Representatives from Detroit, arriving at Capitol Hill, begging bowls in hand (having flown in by private jet !!!!) were told to go away, think about their proposals and come back early next month with more appropriate requests.
Wall Street was spooked by rumours of problems with the BoA/Merrills merger and with the re-capitalisation measures being attempted by Citibank. The number of American workers on the US unemployment register surged to a 25-year high, climbing by 542k to about 4 million. If the economy is turning round, its not yet apparent.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
One would have assumed that the combination of much better than expected UK retail sales figures (a fall of 0.1% against expectations of a 0.8% drop) and a sharp drop in US Treasury yields might have given cable a bit of a leg up enabling it to hold above the important 1.5030 level.
As it happens, the total opposite occurred, with Sterling losing ground against all the majors and one must conclude that it is concern about i) the UK economy ii) the continued move for sharply lower UK interest rates iii) the UK Government's exchange rate policy.
There are strong negatives associated with all three factors and so, ahead of Mr Darling's pre-budget statement on Monday, we are likely to see Sterling vulnerable to the downside.
Sterling LIBOR rates continue their orderly march lower with rates opening another 4-5 basis points lower than yesterday's opening levels. This steady decline must tail off as we approach the next MPC meeting but with expectations of (at least) a 0.50% cut to be announced on the 4th December, rates will likely resume the move lower after that date.
I would anticipate seeing the yield curve steepen unless the Chancellor introduces any of the dreaded âquantitative measures' in his statement to try and force rates lower across the spectrum.
Developments and data from the US yesterday continued to weigh upon both the currency and the stock market with appalling jobs data and ongoing concerns over the future of the US automotive industry the major factors.
Representatives from Detroit, arriving at Capitol Hill, begging bowls in hand (having flown in by private jet !!!!) were told to go away, think about their proposals and come back early next month with more appropriate requests.
Wall Street was spooked by rumours of problems with the BoA/Merrills merger and with the re-capitalisation measures being attempted by Citibank. The number of American workers on the US unemployment register surged to a 25-year high, climbing by 542k to about 4 million. If the economy is turning round, its not yet apparent.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: consolidate debt loans, Loan calculator, refinancing rates, uk recession, US loans rates
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 8:55 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Inflation Data indicates significant Global Fall in Prices
The UK Office for National Statistics yesterday reported that the headline inflation rate had its biggest 1-month decline in the past 10 years.
The CPI year-on-year rate was reported at 4.5% higher in October compared to a 5.2% annual rise in the year to September. The core CPI number (which does not include price moves in energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) also fell, from 2.2% in September to 1.9% in the year to October.
Even though the headline figure is still well above the BoE target rate of 2%, the expectation is for similar falls to occur over the next few months. This will enable CPI to hit the 2% by spring next year. The problem then, as flagged and acknowledged by the BoE in its Inflation Report, is that the fall will not stop there and we are quite likely to see the headline rate fall to zero during 2009. This will create a whole new raft of problems for the MPC and Treasury.
This trend in prices data will be mirrored in all the major economies as lower rates and easier commodity prices filter into the respective economies. Therefore expect to see similar falls in inflation in the Eurozone, US and Canada over the coming weeks.
Officials around the globe are already beginning to douse expectations for continued large cuts in interest rates with both Trichet and the Fed's Stern questioning the wisdom and long-term benefits of further large cuts in their respective currencies.
Today we have a fun-packed day in prospect with minutes from both the last meetings of the MPC and Federal Reserve scheduled as well as an anticipated gloomy survey on Industrial Trends from the CBI. This afternoon, prior to the Fed minutes release, we get US CPI and Housing Starts.
The CBI report is likely to make grim reading especially given the recent proliferation of downbeat Corporate trading statements. The survey number itself will undoubtedly hit a new low for this cycle (expected -41 from last month's -31) but will remain well above the all time low for the survey of -61 recorded back in October 1991.
Trouble is that the figure is still heading the wrong way and so the question is now being asked, "Is this recession worse for British Business than the downturn in the early 90s?" This indicator MUST be watched for the answer.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The CPI year-on-year rate was reported at 4.5% higher in October compared to a 5.2% annual rise in the year to September. The core CPI number (which does not include price moves in energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) also fell, from 2.2% in September to 1.9% in the year to October.
Even though the headline figure is still well above the BoE target rate of 2%, the expectation is for similar falls to occur over the next few months. This will enable CPI to hit the 2% by spring next year. The problem then, as flagged and acknowledged by the BoE in its Inflation Report, is that the fall will not stop there and we are quite likely to see the headline rate fall to zero during 2009. This will create a whole new raft of problems for the MPC and Treasury.
This trend in prices data will be mirrored in all the major economies as lower rates and easier commodity prices filter into the respective economies. Therefore expect to see similar falls in inflation in the Eurozone, US and Canada over the coming weeks.
Officials around the globe are already beginning to douse expectations for continued large cuts in interest rates with both Trichet and the Fed's Stern questioning the wisdom and long-term benefits of further large cuts in their respective currencies.
Today we have a fun-packed day in prospect with minutes from both the last meetings of the MPC and Federal Reserve scheduled as well as an anticipated gloomy survey on Industrial Trends from the CBI. This afternoon, prior to the Fed minutes release, we get US CPI and Housing Starts.
The CBI report is likely to make grim reading especially given the recent proliferation of downbeat Corporate trading statements. The survey number itself will undoubtedly hit a new low for this cycle (expected -41 from last month's -31) but will remain well above the all time low for the survey of -61 recorded back in October 1991.
Trouble is that the figure is still heading the wrong way and so the question is now being asked, "Is this recession worse for British Business than the downturn in the early 90s?" This indicator MUST be watched for the answer.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: falling interest rates, inflation, recession, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 2:50 PM 0 comments
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Tuesday, November 18, 2008
A Better Day for Sterling
On the back of very little, Sterling bounced quite sharply against both Dollar and Euro yesterday and retained most of the gains overnight.
It appears that the market views the stance being adopted by the UK authorities in a mildly positive manner, especially given the apparent continued deterioration of the Eurozone and US economies.
Following on from that, the initial elation at the headline rebound in US Industrial Production yesterday dissipated once the grim and declining trend was revealed. The severe downward correction to September's figure and the removal of the post-Hurricane Ike effect leaves a very sorry picture and immediately provoked calls/demands/predictions of a 50bp interest cut at the next Fed meeting in December.
This flies in the face of comments by the Fed's Hoeing who noted that the economic downturn was worse than expected but that the Central Bank was already running "a very accommodative" policy. Importantly, he added that they had done about as much as they were able to aid the economy.
Against this, the San Francisco Fed's own staff economists expect the US economy to continue to contract through the 1st half of 2009 and that the unemployment rate will hit a peak at around 8.00% from its current 6.5%, still well below the post-depression peak of 10.7% reached in 1982 although that is no foregone conclusion.
Short date interest rates continue to ease with supplies of funds at this end of the curve in plentiful supply. Period rates still remain stubbornly higher as demand for longer term remains far greater than the current supply. This will likely continue for some time to come until confidence returns.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
It appears that the market views the stance being adopted by the UK authorities in a mildly positive manner, especially given the apparent continued deterioration of the Eurozone and US economies.
Following on from that, the initial elation at the headline rebound in US Industrial Production yesterday dissipated once the grim and declining trend was revealed. The severe downward correction to September's figure and the removal of the post-Hurricane Ike effect leaves a very sorry picture and immediately provoked calls/demands/predictions of a 50bp interest cut at the next Fed meeting in December.
This flies in the face of comments by the Fed's Hoeing who noted that the economic downturn was worse than expected but that the Central Bank was already running "a very accommodative" policy. Importantly, he added that they had done about as much as they were able to aid the economy.
Against this, the San Francisco Fed's own staff economists expect the US economy to continue to contract through the 1st half of 2009 and that the unemployment rate will hit a peak at around 8.00% from its current 6.5%, still well below the post-depression peak of 10.7% reached in 1982 although that is no foregone conclusion.
Short date interest rates continue to ease with supplies of funds at this end of the curve in plentiful supply. Period rates still remain stubbornly higher as demand for longer term remains far greater than the current supply. This will likely continue for some time to come until confidence returns.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: falling interest rates, interest rates, UK loans rates, uk recession
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 10:55 AM 0 comments
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Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Surging Unemployment in the UK- a precursor for worse to come?
Headlines, reading that 4,000 UK jobs were lost yesterday, have produced a raft of new estimates as to where the total number of unemployed will get to before this recession ends.
The consensus is that we will see a total in excess of 2 million imminently but from there it is anyone's guess. If anything, it makes the employment and earnings data, scheduled to be released at 9.30am today, even more relevant than the release of the BoE Quarterly Inflation Report at 10.30am.
That's not to say that the latter won't be watched with great interest but you have to feel that the content will have been anticipated and flogged to death in the press already. Unless there is something within the report that is totally out of synch with previous comment, one must assume the composition will be of concern on growth, rapidly falling inflationary pressures and worries of an undershooting of the inflation target in 12-18 months.
The unemployment numbers are expected to show an increase in people out of work of 35,000 giving a rate of 2.9% but I would not be surprised to see a higher figure of 40,000+ and 3%.
Really, it is difficult to see what sort of figures/statement can help Sterling in the immediate term with markets likely to view anything positive as a blip in the continued descent into the mire.
There are of course other things afoot around the globe following the near Global-wide Bank holiday for Armistice / Veteran's day yesterday.
Oil remains in the headlines with the recession led lack of demand keeping downward pressure on crude prices (WTI below $60 pb again to a 21-month low)) and talk of an additional emergency OPEC meeting, to try and cut production again, ahead of the scheduled mid-December get together in Algeria.
With the continued fall in demand it is difficult to see what OPEC can do. Keep their collective fingers crossed that there is a hard Winter, weather-wise, in the West and especially the US?
Following today's UK data, attention will shift to a raft of statistics coming from the Eurozone and its participant nations. Yesterday's German ZEW data gave a mixed message but by and large the current assessment still stinks.
Today we see Industrial Production estimates for September which are expected flat on the month with the danger on the downside.
Tomorrow the ECB will publish its monthly report for November which is likely to just put in print Trichet's prepared remarks at last week's post-Council press conference but on Friday we will see the preliminary estimates for 3rd Qtr GDP. This data is critical for the Eurozone. If, as seems almost certain, GDP turns out to have contracted again, then neither the ECB or anyone else will be able to argue against the fact that Eurozone is in recession.
This in turn will increase the likelihood that the ECB will cut rates regularly for the next 6-months until market rates reach the level with core inflation of about 1.75%.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
The consensus is that we will see a total in excess of 2 million imminently but from there it is anyone's guess. If anything, it makes the employment and earnings data, scheduled to be released at 9.30am today, even more relevant than the release of the BoE Quarterly Inflation Report at 10.30am.
That's not to say that the latter won't be watched with great interest but you have to feel that the content will have been anticipated and flogged to death in the press already. Unless there is something within the report that is totally out of synch with previous comment, one must assume the composition will be of concern on growth, rapidly falling inflationary pressures and worries of an undershooting of the inflation target in 12-18 months.
The unemployment numbers are expected to show an increase in people out of work of 35,000 giving a rate of 2.9% but I would not be surprised to see a higher figure of 40,000+ and 3%.
Really, it is difficult to see what sort of figures/statement can help Sterling in the immediate term with markets likely to view anything positive as a blip in the continued descent into the mire.
There are of course other things afoot around the globe following the near Global-wide Bank holiday for Armistice / Veteran's day yesterday.
Oil remains in the headlines with the recession led lack of demand keeping downward pressure on crude prices (WTI below $60 pb again to a 21-month low)) and talk of an additional emergency OPEC meeting, to try and cut production again, ahead of the scheduled mid-December get together in Algeria.
With the continued fall in demand it is difficult to see what OPEC can do. Keep their collective fingers crossed that there is a hard Winter, weather-wise, in the West and especially the US?
Following today's UK data, attention will shift to a raft of statistics coming from the Eurozone and its participant nations. Yesterday's German ZEW data gave a mixed message but by and large the current assessment still stinks.
Today we see Industrial Production estimates for September which are expected flat on the month with the danger on the downside.
Tomorrow the ECB will publish its monthly report for November which is likely to just put in print Trichet's prepared remarks at last week's post-Council press conference but on Friday we will see the preliminary estimates for 3rd Qtr GDP. This data is critical for the Eurozone. If, as seems almost certain, GDP turns out to have contracted again, then neither the ECB or anyone else will be able to argue against the fact that Eurozone is in recession.
This in turn will increase the likelihood that the ECB will cut rates regularly for the next 6-months until market rates reach the level with core inflation of about 1.75%.
Loans Calculators Blog- loans rates blog for news about interest rates- unsecured and secured loans, mortgages, remortgages and refinancing including home loans, equity release and consolidate debt loans.
Labels: ECB, OPEC, UK loans rates, uk recession, unemployment
# posted by Dr Search- Principal Consultant at the Search Clinic @ 9:38 AM 0 comments
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